MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
This “awful” stretch resulted in a 4.82 ERA, 4.51 FIP and a 3.35 xFIP, also known as an “average” production level for a mid-rotation starter. Think about that, at his worst, Skubal is merely a mid-rotation arm. Salary of course is a thing and expectations run high in the DFS world, but we should give the 28-year-old a little grace.
Last Tuesday, Skubal righted the ship in a fun duel against RHP Hunter Brown in Detroit, holding Houston scoreless across seven innings, with just five baserunners and 10 strikeouts. The same Astros squad that has been a top-five team against southpaws for most of the season.
The Athletics have also been one of the best power teams against lefties, plus Sutter Health Park has shown to be an offense elevating environment. If anyone can tame the A’s, it is Skubal, who has a baseline expectation of a quality start and half a dozen strikeouts. That is not going to be enough to “pay off” his salary, though he is the clear priority pitching play.
In Texas, RHP Jacob deGrom and the Ranger are hosting the Los Angeles Angels. The projected lineup for the Halos has a 27.1% strikeout rate this season against right-handed hurlers and deGrom continues to be productive in his age-37 season, with a 27.2% combined strikeout rate.
This year, deGrom was honored by making his fifth All-Star team, his first since 2021. During the three seasons in between, the two-time Cy Young Award winner logged just over 100 innings in three injury riddled campaigns.
Los Angeles is without first baseman Nolan Schanuel, who was placed on the injured list with a bone bruise in his left wrist. That weakens the Anaheim offense, taking one of the few lefties, plus Schanuel limits strikeouts. Tonight we should see deGrom with something approaching 90 pitches, with a chance to to higher if he isn’t laboring on the mound.
The 40-year-old has been solid this season and while he is never going to reach his apex ace levels again, which saw him finish in the top-five for the Cy Young Award in seven of eight seasons, winning three, he can still pick his spots against weaker teams. Overall, the projected lineup for Minnesota has a low 18.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, however, Byron Buxton (28.3%, 329 plate appearances), Matt Wallner (31.0%, 242 PAs) and James Outman (45.3%, 53 PAs) are all K-candidates.
From a salary perspective, RHP Jose Soriano is the discount dandy on DraftKings ($5,700) and Yahoo ($36), placing him firmly in contention as an SP2. Texas has been much improved on offense over the last 30 days, making it all the way up to league average. That is a far cry from the first half of the season, when the Rangers were in the bottom-third of the league for most hitting categories.
Soriano is not much for strikeouts, with a 20.5% rate this season and a 20.8% last year, however, he has embraced his groundball proclivity and improved from an elite 60.1% rate last year to a devilishly strong 66.6% rate this year. His 63.2% rate over the last two seasons combined is the best in the league among starters with at least 250 innings.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Detroit Tigers
To his credit, he does have 19 strikeouts, though he also has a whopping 10 walks, along with four round-trippers, among 10 total extra-base hits. Detroit is still without Parker Meadows and super sub Matt Vierling, though Colt Keith is expected to be in the lineup tonight after being a scratch on Sunday with an illness. That is key since he is often time leading off against righties and Ginn has struggled with opposite-handed batsmen, giving up a .421 wOBA and a .253 ISO across 399 batters faced in The Show.
Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene are the other left-handed boppers worthy of our consideration, with switch-hitter Wenceel Perez also doing excellent work from the left-side of the plate. Connecting the dots with Spencer Torkelson and Gleyber Torres is a savvy strategy and Zach McKinstry is in the mix on the late-slate, providing differentiation from the bottom of the order.
Main Slate Secondary Target: New York Yankees
Everyone in the projected lineup, aside from Jose Caballero has a .195 ISO or higher this season against righties, with the collective crew boasting a .245 ISO, which is beyond ridiculous. For what it is worth, that is not a knock against Caballero, who currently leads the league with 40 stolen bases, racking up six since donning pinstripes after being traded from Tampa.
Look to the lefties first, with Trent Grisham locked in after hitting two round-trippers on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball, plus Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are all in great form over the last month. Giancarlo Stanton appears to have found the fountain of youth, racking up a .501 wOBA and a .490 ISO in his last 53 righty-righty plate appearances.
That still leaves otherworldly Aaron Judge, a discounted catcher in Austin Wells and former Colorado slugger Ryan McMahon who is almost an afterthought in this lineup.
Since the recommendations today are pretty spendy, some potential discount dandies on DraftKings include a trio of lefties in Luis Arraez ($3,200), Gavin Sheets ($3,300) and Jake Cronenworth ($3,300), in Seattle against RHP Bryce Miller (elbow inflammation), who is making just his second start in the last 10 weeks, having returned from his second injury list stint of the season.
The entire Pittsburgh offense is under $3,500, save for Bryan Reynolds ($4,500) in St. Louis against RHP Michael McGreevy. Finally in New York, the Nationals have several discounted hitters against RHP Cam Schlittler, aside from James Wood ($5,400) and CJ Abrams ($5,500).
This gives everyone plenty of one-off options at nearly every position, so working in two is not a stretch to then be able to craft an otherwise stellar lineup.
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