MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
To be fair, Valdez has run the gauntlet, with road games against the Tigers, Yankees and Red Sox, with his lone home outing versus the Orioles. Even through this rough patch, Valdez only saw his ERA increase from 2.62 to 3.32, which is a quick way of demonstrating how dominant he had been through the first four months of the season.
The active roster for Colorado actually has a 104 wRC+ against southpaws, even though the actual stats for the full season have the Rockies ranked second to last with a 76 wRC+.
Valdez will need to neutralize righties Hunter Goodman, Brenton Doyle and Jordan Beck in the heart of the order, though surprise will be on his side. The groundball artist has not been faced by most of the active roster and Doyle is the only member of this trio to have stepped in the box against the lefty, going 0-for-2.
Aside from August, the full body of work for Valdez is relatively similar to his work of the last half decade, so expectations should run high in this “get right” spot against a young and inexperienced lineup.
Looking at OddsShopper, we can see that RHP Shohei Ohtani has a -130 line for over 5.5 strikeouts tonight, which is behind only Valdez who has a 6.5 target threshold and tied with RHP Bryan Woo who also has a 5.5 mark this afternoon against San Diego.
In his last start, Ohtani struggled at Coors Field, closing out four frames with three strikeouts and five earned runs on 66 pitches. Indications are that Ohtani has the green light to go for five innings, which is key as it would qualify him for the win bonus. Two weeks ago he had a season high 80 pitches and in his trio of tilts preceding the Coors Field Extravaganza, he tallied 19 strikeouts in 11.1 innings.
The projected lineup for Cincinnati has only three hitters who strike out above league average against righties, though the team also has only three hitters who have power in these situations, with Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte and Spencer Steer being the only troublesome bats.
The Pittsburgh projected lineup is dreadful, even with the return of Oneil Cruz. On a positive note, the Pirates tend to limit strikeouts, though Bryan Reynolds, Jake Suwinski, catcher Joey Bart and Cruz provide plenty. Cruz is the only hitter with above average power and the collective lineup barely cracks a .100 ISO.
Despite running out a mostly right-handed lineup, the projected San Francisco squad has a subpar .131 ISO and 24.9% strikeout rate against southpaws this season. Brown will need to deal with Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames and Rafael Devers at the top of the order, though he should have the upper-hand against the rest of the Giants tonight.
The Bucs have scored the fewest runs in the league this season, yet they are rarely targeted in DFS as much as the White Sox or Rockies. Speaking of the Pale Hose, RHP Ryan Berget is facing them in Chicago, with the backing of the Kansas City offense against RHP Aaron Civale. To be clear, the rookie has outpitched his peripherals, though he is in play for tournament, with this matchup tonight.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Detroit Tigers
Rookie RHP Luis Morales is making his fifth appearance of the season, though he has been lucky thus far. He is a very raw prospect, though the team though enough of him to hand the Cuban a $3 million deal. He has a strong fastball, though command and lack of a secondary pitch will catch up to him soon enough. Morales will be 23-years-old next month and he has just over 200 innings in the minors as his MLB experience continues to grow.
The top seven players on the lineup card are all strong options, with gloveman Trey Sweeney and catcher Dillon Dingler the least appealing plays. The Motor City Kitties are looking to avoid a sweep, having been outscored 15 to 9 through the first two games.
RHP Casey Mize is a better real life pitcher at this point of his career, with his DFS utility wanning with a lack of strikeouts. He has improved from a 17.2% combined strikeout rate this season, to 20.8% which is still below league average for starters and well below the 24%-plus level that is desirable for DFS. Mize did make the All-Star team, though that was buoyed by his now 12-4 record and strong 3.68 ERA, neither of which should dissuade gamers from looking to the usual suspects from the A’s.
Jacob Wilson knocked one out of the park last night, which is exciting since he has mostly been more of a contact hitter this season. The youngster is still behind fellow rookie Nick Kurtz, catcher Shea Langeliers and outfielders Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom and Lawrence Butler in the DFS pecking order tonight.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Texas Rangers
Considering he allowed eight runs in his 10 innings, including issuing seven walks and hitting two other batters with a pitch, it does not seem like much has changed from his last three starts in The Show. In these 13.2 frames, he allowed 14 runs (three unearned), with 10 walks and only six strikeouts. This culminated in a 7.24 ERA, 6.34 FIP and 5.78 xFIP, which are all well below replacement level results.
Lefty power is a major weakness for Kochanowicz, so it is sad that only Corey Seager checks that box. Technically switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim does as well, though he has been dreadful over the last two years, making his All-Star appearance during the 2023 run to the World Series a true outlier.
Marcus Semien was just lost for the season with a foot fracture, joining Jake Burger, Evan Carter and Sam Haggerty on the injured list. These health issues really sap the depth of the lineup, though Wyatt Langford, Adolis Garcia and catcher Kyle Higashioka are in the mix with Seager tonight. Joc Pederson and Josh Jung are potential discount dandies, if they are close to the heart of the order.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like Nick Lodolo to record fewer than 4.5 strikeouts tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
Letting PortfolioEV do the heavy lifting is key, as we can see in the details the major operators have offerings from the appealing -145 on Caesars, to the punitive -185 at HardRock. That is a difference of +2.4 expected ROI to a negative 8% expected ROI, which is a wild swing. Be a savvy shopper!
