MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
There are two pitchers clearly at the top, with RHP Logan Gilbert and budding superstar RHP Paul Skenes being the clear clicks. Skenes (-220) has moved ahead of RHP Zack Wheeler (+180) in the National League Cy Young Award race, while Wheeler’s teammate LHP Cristopher Sanchez (+1200) is the next closest option.
Skenes has a decent matchup against a Cincinnati lineup that is far less daunting away from the Great American Ballpark. Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer and Jake Fraley are the most accomplished hitters against righties, and while the likes of TJ Friedl, Matt McLain, Austin Hays and Gavin Lux will be pesky, Skenes easily has the upper hand on paper.
Back to Gilbert, he will be wrapping up the three-game series for the Mariners, who are looking to sweep the White Sox. Chicago did pop off for six runs yesterday, though only two were against starter RHP George Kirby, which doubled the lone run RHP Bryan Woo allowed on Tuesday. While both Gilbert and Skenes are at home in favorable pitching venues, T-Mobile Park in Seattle has the best park factor in the league and the improved Seattle offense is a -290 moneyline favorites for the win, while the Pirates are -175 by comparison.
Even though this is a 1 o’clock local start time, game-time temperatures will still only be in the mid-60s, further favoring Gilbert. There are enough discount dandies from Atlanta and Miami to facilitate rostering both aces on DraftKings and Yahoo, though keep in mind that is going to be a far from unique strategy. The other thing to keep in mind is that since missing nearly two months with a forearm strain, Gilbert averaged just over 88 pitches in the nine games since his return, and there is no reason for the M’s to push him with the team in the thick of the Wild Card race.
The wheels have really come off the wagon for Atlanta, with Austin Riley going back on the injured list for a second time in a couple weeks due to a mid-core strain, and, of course, Ronald Acuna Jr. is also out with a calf issue.
Michael Harris II did hit a mammoth home run last night, but the former future star is having the worst season of his career at the plate, posting a .236/.259/.376 triple-slash line that includes a .265 wOBA and a .124 ISO in 319 lefty-righty matchups this season.
Veterans Matt Olson and Sean Murphy are left to do the heavy lifting, with rookie catcher Drake Baldwin being the only other real bright spot.
Eli White has been passable for a fifth outfielder, and he is getting in the lineup over the slumping Marcell Ozuna as manager Brian Snitker moves things around against right-handed hurlers.
The infield trio of Ozzie Albies, Nick Allen and Nacho Alvarez are not going to be much of a deterrent for any capable pitchers and especially not for the surging Perez.
Although he missed the 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, with Didier Fuentes back in the minors, Perez remains the youngest active starting pitcher in the league at 22 years and 114 days, just ahead of Chase Burns (22 years, 203 days).
Veteran RHP Brady Singer is the only other arm worthy of consideration on the short slate. The projected lineup for the Pirates has just Oneil Cruz (.238 ISO, 318 plate appearances) providing any consistent power. Scuffling prospect Liover Peguero had three of his 11 career home runs in Coors Field on Saturday, though he projects for only middling power as speed and defense are his calling cards.
Spencer Horwitz and veterans Tommy Pham and Andrew McCutchen are not easy outs, but this trio has a combined .130 ISO this season against right-handed hurlers, with the rest of the lineup well below replacement level.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Value Target: Miami Marlins
The 38-year-old signed a minor league deal with the Yankees, making the squad in spring training due to the thin rotation. He made six starts and eight total appearances before being assigned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in mid-May. Atlanta has dealt with so many pitching injuries (Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver, Reynaldo Lopez) that the Braves decided to take a flier on Carrasco at the trade deadline in return for cash considerations.
Miami has a wildly inexperienced collection of hitters on the 25-man roster, with the average MLB service time being barely one year. The top 5 are the focus, and Agustin Ramirez, Kyle Stowers and Otto Lopez are the most promising trio. Leadoff man Xavier Edwards would likely be a reserve utilityman on most contenders, while Liam Hicks is probably a backup catcher at best.
Jakob Marsee is the most recent callup, and with him holding the platoon advantage, he is likely to be hitting sixth in front of Dane Myers, who is dreadful against righties but at least able to get the bat on the ball against southpaws.
Main Slate Primary Target: Seattle Mariners
He was placed on the injured reserve after the All-Star Game with a sprained ankle, returning on Friday to log 4.1 innings in Anaheim against the Angles. The last time he closed out the fifth inning was on June 10, so expect to see something in the 80-pitch range, which will probably get him to the fourth inning against Seattle this afternoon.
The Mariners made two separate deals with Arizona, landing Josh Naylor and reuniting with Eugenio Suarez. After ending a two-decade playoff drought in 2022, the M’s missed the postseason each of the last two years, falling one game shy of the final Wild Card berth. The team now has one of the deepest lineups, with only the nine-hole hitter being considered an easy out as rookie Cole Young usually mans that slot. Considering he is the second-best prospect for Seattle and inside the top 50 on most industry lists, he really isn’t a gimme for opposing pitchers, and he is a nice differentiation play for the large-field tournaments. Young also brings synergistic upside in a bottom-of-the-order stack with Jorge Polanco, Dominic Canzone and J.P. Crawford or as part of a wraparound stack.
Yes, Crawford has been a regular in the leadoff slot for the M’s over the last few seasons, but with the revamped lineup, Randy Arozarena has moved up from the heart of the order, now getting protection from Home Run Derby champion Cal Raleigh and well-rounded Julio Rodriguez, who just became the first player in MLB history to begin a career with four-consecutive 20-20 seasons. Roster anyone and everyone wearing the trident!
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