MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
New York is currently one game behind the Toronto Blue Jays for the American League East crown, which would give the team a first-round bye since whichever franchise grabs the brass ring should also have a top-2 record and avoid the Wild Card round. Both teams have already clinched a Wild Card berth at a minimum, but the top prize is still within reach.
LHP Max Fried has been everything the Yanks have hoped for this season, as his production is right in line with his last five campaigns for Atlanta. The 31-year-old made the American League All-Star squad, giving him Midsummer Classic honors for the fourth time in the last five years. The backing of the pinstripe batters has him leading the league with 18 wins, as well as a 78.3% win rate.
Fried is not overpowering with his strikeout totals, but he did just fan 13 Orioles in Baltimore last Thursday. While the ChiSox projected lineup has just two hitters who have struck out at a 22% or higher rate against southpaws this season, five hitters have a sub-.110 ISO, and rookie leadoff hitter Chase Meidroth is the only batter with an above-average walk rate against lefties.
If precipitation ends up being an issue, LHP Garrett Crochet is a tournament pivot in Toronto. The matchup is far from a cakewalk, particularly since the Blue Jays tend to limit strikeouts, but Crochet was in the mix for the American League Cy Young Award for most of the season and he has raw point potential. Davis Schneider, Dalton Varsho and Anthony Santander, who is back after missing most of the season, all strike out at a 28% or higher rate against lefties. That, along with the 31.4% combined strikeout rate for Crochet this season, is where the magic can happen.
Lefty Blake Snell on the road in Arizona is also in play as the Dodgers are only 1.5 games ahead of San Diego in the National League West.
There has been some luck on his side, though far from a preponderance. His walk, home run and ground ball rates are nothing eye-popping, but they are the best of the last three seasons. That has been crucial because his 21.0% strikeout rate is at a career low.
Last night, RHP Bryce Miller fell one out shy of a quality start, which is the baseline expectation for Castillo tonight.
The only worrisome hitters for Colorado are lefty Micky Moniak and righty Hunter Goodman. After that, the next best power sources are 28-year-old rookie Blaine Crim, who finally made it to The Show, and an honorable mention for Ezequiel Tovar, who has league-average power against same-handed hurlers when he actually makes contact.
DraftKings has provided Castillo a ridiculous salary for the matchup against the worst offense in baseball in the most favorable pitcher’s park. FanDuel and Yahoo are appropriate when we remember the overall strikeout dip Castillo suffered this season. Seattle
Two more victories for Seattle or a win and a Houston loss will give the Mariners the American League West division title. The team is currently one game behind the Yankees with the Wild Card bye as the prize, and only two games behind Toronto.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Houston Astros
Fortunately, there are selections at a variety of positions, as well as price points, which can help provide differentiation from other ‘Stros stacks. Jose Altuve is the most popular player on both DraftKings (16.3%) and FanDuel (21.6%), so skipping him is a quick way to choose a different path. On DraftKings, Yainer Diaz projects to be on 13.4% of all tournament rosters, though he will likely be in close to half of all Houston stacks given his eligibility at the catcher slot.
To be clear, this duo is also receiving strong fantasy projections, but if you are playing MLB DFS at this point in the season, you are well aware of the inherent variance in a sport in which a 30% success rate for a hitter is elite.
Jesus Sanchez profiles well against RHP Luis Severino, and he is only projected to be on 10% to 12% of tournament rosters tonight. Turning the attention to Severino, he has not been thrilled with Sutter Health Park, ceding a 6.51 ERA as compared to a 3.02 ERA on the road. A lot of the discrepancy can be seen with a below-average 58.8% strand rate at home, as compared to a 73.1% rate on the road. In his last five home starts, Severino allowed five or more runs three times for 16 total in 19 frames. On the road in this timeframe, he did not cede more than three runs, giving up 13 in 33 innings.
The 31-year-old is not a bad pitcher, but he is at a career-low 17.4% combined rate and has been challenging hitters more in West Sacramento, which creates a self-fulfilling prophecy of harder pitches leading to harder hits. The elevated temperature and favorable 10 to 12 mph breeze out to centerfield more often than not throughout the season have conspired together for well-below-average results in the Triple-A ballpark.
Closing out the Astros, Christian Walker continues to rake against same-handed hurlers, while rookie Zach Cole is seeing good pitches as opposing teams look to exploit his weakness for swinging from his heels.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Texas Rangers
All told, in these six starts, Bradley recorded an 8.67 ERA, a 5.77 FIP, a 5.21 xFIP, only 7.67 strikeouts per nine innings and a hefty 4.33 walks per nine. The Rangers have been eliminated from the playoffs, though the team still should put out enough desirable hitters to craft a strong secondary stack.
Look for duos and trios from Texas, and there is no real need to go overboard. Wyatt Langford is dealing with a sore oblique, though if he is out of the lineup, that means a promotion in the batting order for the likes of Joc Pederson and Jake Burger. Josh Jung, Adolis Garcia and Alejandro Osuna are all viable options, but again, do not go overboard with an abundance of Texas bats.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Tails By OddsShopper shines.
Take a bet like Jose Ramirez to hit a home run tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
Home runs are fickle, so do not go crazy on your wager size. Use this as a sprinkling of buckaroos for entertainment purposes.
