MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 1
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Holmes’ conversion from the primary reliever the last three seasons for New York’s other team has been successful. In his 11 starts for the Mets, he allowed four runs twice, three runs once and two or fewer in the other eight outings. He finished the fifth inning in each of the last nine games while closing out the sixth in five of them. The walks are a touch high and the strikeouts a little low, but that should not be anything to dissuade gamers from building their lineups around Holmes.
In Baltimore, the Orioles are hosting the Chicago White Sox, so that has RHP Charlie Morton in play. RHP Hayden Birdsong has been moved into the rotation for San Francisco, putting him on the potential discount dandies list in Miami.
The Marlins are countering with LHP Ryan Weathers, who has looked good in his three starts by recording 15 strikeouts and just a pair of solo home runs, plus another two unearned runs in 15.1 innings. Two of those games were against the Cubs, and the most recent was in San Diego.
Both LHP Kris Bubic and RHP Hunter Brown can be considered spend-up options, with both toeing the rubber at home against Detroit and Tampa, respectively.
Reliever Scott McGough came in and allowed three more runs before closing out the first inning.
This afternoon it will be up to RHP Corbin Burnes to help the Diamondbacks avoid a home sweep by Washington.
Burnes has seen his strikeouts decline for four consecutive seasons, but he may be pulling out of the nosedive this year, having turned things around with 29 strikeouts in his last 27 innings. That includes two games against the Dodgers and two others at home against Pittsburgh and Colorado.
In this stretch, the former Cy Young Award Winner has a 1.67 ERA, 2.90 FIP and 2.95 xFIP, which is solid considering he faced Los Angeles twice, ceding just three runs in 14 innings.
The Nationals are a pesky lineup, and they set up well against right-handed hurlers, with their four best batsmen all swinging the stick from the left side of the plate. CJ Abrams and James Wood are potential All-Star candidates for this season, but Nathaniel Lowe and Luis Garcia would be bottom of the order hitters on playoff contenders and switch-hitter Josh Bell is well into the “Have bat, will travel” journeyman phase of his career.
Luis Castillo is the next man up in Seattle against the visiting Minnesota Twins. Castillo is more of a run-prevention pitcher now, even though most think of him as a borderline strikeout artist. Randy Vasquez is in San Diego against the Pirates, and while Pittsburgh does a good job of limiting strikeouts, that is really not part of Vasquez’s repertoire. Rolling him out in lineups with the hope that either Burnes or Castillo falter is his path towards top-2 relevance.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Mets
It has been a rough stretch of opponents for the 25-year-old lefty. He faced the Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks on the road, sandwiching a 4.1-inning, seven-run drubbing at home against the Philadelphia Phillies. Even excluding that game, Palmquist allowed seven runs in nine innings away from the thin Denver air, and he was barely a top-10 prospect in his own organization.
He has a high-80s fastball, which he sets up with a slow curve and sweeper. That makes the “heater” seem faster than it really is; it worked in the minors, but he is likely to be a “crafty lefty,” back-of-the-rotation arm in The Show.
Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso are the obvious trio to target, with Starling Marte or Mark Vientos rounding out full stacks, depending on where they slot in the order. Vientos outplayed Brett Baty last year, banishing the latter to Triple-A. Vientos started off slowly this season but has looked better over the last couple of weeks, so he should be in a prime position on the batting card. Marte has a long history of success against southpaws, and while he is on the back side of his career, he is still a serviceable situational hitter.
Late Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
In his 11 starts this year, his strikeout rate has dropped from 7.93 to 6.01 per nine innings, though he has pushed his ground ball rate up a tick to 41.5% and survived on the home run front. The D-Backs are a loaded lineup against lefties, with switch-hitter Ketel Marte leading off and righties Lourdes Gurriel Jr and Eugenio Suarez close behind. Lefties Corbin Carroll and Josh Naylor are each likely to slide down one slot, but they can both hold their own against fellow southpaws.
Randall Grichuk should also be in the lineup, though he is a pinch-hit risk if a right-handed reliever enters the game, depending on the score and situation. Manager Torey Lovullo has gone both ways in these decisions, but it is worth noting the potential of something less than a full game from Grichuk.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
The nice thing about Portfolio EV is that it is constantly scanning the markets for excellent wagers, so when there is someone getting out over their skis on the social sites of ProphetX or NoVig, users are able to pounce. The +148 line is well above the “true odds” of +120, and most books are offering this in the +110 to +115 range. Nootbaar and the St. Louis Cardinals have a tough matchup on the road in Texas against RHP Jacob deGrom, but as the likely leadoff man for the visiting team, Nootbaar is all but assured of five plate appearances this afternoon, with at least two against the bullpen. That is where the plus-money odds come in because the lefty is going to have several chances to get a hit and torpedo the unders.
