MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
The southpaw has decent strikeout stuff, though he has not been overly successful with racking up the whiffs. Pitching in Great American Ballpark is, of course, an adventure, though Atlanta will be without Ronald Acuna Jr., who is on the injured list due to a strained calf, and there is a chance that Marcell Ozuna will be moved to a contender in search of depth since he has falling into mostly a platoon role with the Braves.
Ozzie Albies (.288 wOBA, .045 ISO, 117 plate appearances), Eli White (.241 wOBA, .090 ISO, 70 PAs) and Nick Allen (.232 wOBA, .029 ISO, 83 PAs) provide several easier outs at the back of the order for Abbott.
In 2023 and 2024, Kirby led the league both years with the fewest walks and the best strikeouts-per-walk rate. That is no longer the case, as Kirby’s 2.2 walks per nine innings are more than double that prior stretch.
Of course, Kirby has a career-best 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings, courtesy of his 24.8% strikeout rate. The 2022 All-Star also has been outstanding with a 46.2% ground ball rate and a solid 25.1% fly ball rate.
As it has been noted several times over the last week in this article, Texas is in the bottom third of the league for runs scored this season at 4.14 runs per game. That said, the Rangers performed well above that level over the last 30 days with 5.75 per tilt, which were the second most during this timeframe.
Joc Pederson has returned from injury, though he is far from an effective hitter these days. Expect some combination of him, switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim and veteran backstop Kyle Higashioka to cover the designated hitter and catching duties.
It is a small sample size, but for those in search of tiebreakers, light-hitting utilityman Ezequiel Duran somehow is 7-for-13 (.538) against Kirby with one double and two strikeouts, while enigmatic slugger Adolis Garcia is 6-for-20 (.300) with a double, a home run, one walk and three strikeouts.
The third option — unless, of course, gamers want to ride with recycled RHP Carlos Carrasco ,who was just traded from the Yankees to Atlanta — is wildcard RHP Kumar Rocker. The soon-to-be 26-year-old was a 38th-round selection out of high school in the 2018 MLB Draft, electing the college route with Vanderbilt. He was the 10th overall selection in 2021 by the New York Mets, though they did not agree to terms before the deadline, so Rocker returned to Tennessee. He was then the third overall selection in 2022, going to the Rangers with a $5.2 million signing bonus.
Rocker underwent Tommy John surgery in early 2023 after being injured while pitching in Single-A, returning to action late last season. Across 320 batters in The Show, Rocker has a solid 49.8% ground ball rate, though his 20.9% strikeout rate has been disappointing, to say the least.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Cincinnati Reds
Though Carrasco never made an All-Star team, he did finish fourth in the 2017 American League Cy Young Award voting when he had 18 wins with Cleveland, and he was 13th in 2015. His last effective full campaign was a throwback season in 2022. Since then he has played in 49 games, recording a 6.14 ERA and 180 strikeouts across 225.2 innings. Carrasco and RHP Erick Fedde came into Atlanta to eat innings in an attempt to survive until Chris Sale can return. Keep in mind that Grant Holmes just landed on the injured list, joining Spencer Schwellenbach and AJ Smith-Shawver.
Game-time temperatures are going to be in the mid-70s with a pleasant 8 to 10 mph breeze out towards right field. There is early afternoon precipitation that will be creating 70% to 80% humidity, which is a boost to homer-happy Great American Ballpark, though there are no concerns for any in-game delays.
Elly De La Cruz is, of course, a coveted option for Cincinnati stacks while also being a desirable one-off. Austin Hays has been a solid contributor from the cleanup slot, Gavin Lux far from an easy out at the top of the order, and Jake Fraley and Spencer Steer man the middle of the lineup. Will Benson has some pop at the bottom of the lineup card, and Noelvi Marte has flashed upside as a late-developing top prospect for the Reds.
Main Slate Alternative Target: Seattle Mariners
Naylor gives Seattle a low-strikeout, high upside left-handed hitter in the lineup, pushing Luke Raley back to a bench player who can give various regulars a day off against right-handed pitching down the stretch.
The double addition also moves Randy Arozarena and Jorge Polanco down the lineup card, giving the Mariners are very deep offense, with Dominic Canzone slotting in against righties and Moore, Williamson, and Donovan Solano off the bench against southpaws.
Cal Raleigh is still the straw that stirs the drink, providing protection for leadoff man J.P. Crawford and versatile stalwart Julio Rodriguez, who is tied with Arozarena at 20 stolen bases, ranking 15th on the overall leaderboard. The M’s did not do much in the way of adding offense each of the last two seasons, missing out on the wild card by one game each year.
Since tying the MLB record with 116 wins in 2001, ultimately losing in the American League Championship Series to the Yankees, the Mariners have made the playoffs once in the subsequent 24 seasons (back in 2022), losing in the Divisional Round to the eventual champion Houston Astros. Hopefully, the faithful fans will be rewarded for their loyalty this fall.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like Kumar Rocker under 4.5 strikeouts tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates!
In his last eight outings, Rocker had five or more strikeouts five times (63%), though three of those efforts ended up with him landing on exactly five whiffs. Getting the +126 on Novig is key as most operators are in the -105 to +105 range.
