MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
This will probably be the final start of the season for Webb, but the team could always use him on Sunday against Colorado. The point is he is in a position to leave everything out on the mound tonight. The 28-year-old has had a stellar season with a 26.0% strikeout rate, which is the second highest of his career and well above the 20.4% from last year. He also continues to be one of the best in the league at inducing ground balls, with a tremendous 54.4% rate.
Brendan Donovan was a late scratch last night due to general soreness, though he had been dealing with a groin issue for most of August. If he is out of the lineup again, that leaves only lefties Alec Burleson and Lars Nootbaar, plus catcher Ivan Herrera as the only worrisome bats.
The bottom of the lineup card will be populated with light hitters: Thomas Saggese, Jordan Walker, Jimmy Crooks and Victor Scott. Collectively, this quartet has nearly a 27% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers this season.
Webb is in good form, having held the Dodgers to just one earned run in Los Angeles in his last outing, avenging his four-run, six-inning effort in the prior start. Aside from that gaff, he allowed two or fewer “Ernies” in seven of his last 10 starts.
Seattle had a nice weekend in Houston, earning a three-game sweep against the Astros, which now has the Mariners three games ahead of the ‘Stros in the American League West. Now is the time to bank a couple more victories, with the final weekend series being against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
This has been a tough season for RHP Bryce Miller, who has been in the injured list two different times, dealing with elbow inflammation and discomfort. He will need offseason surgery to clean up bone fragments, but for now he is gutting through things.
Two starts ago, Miller collected a career-high 11 strikeouts against the Los Angeles Angels, though he was otherwise merely mediocre.
Overall his 19.1% strikeout rate this season is a career low, well under his 24.3% from last year. The projected lineup for Colorado has six hitters who have a 26.0% or higher strikeout rate against right-handers this season, which when factored in with Miller’s salary and the favorable venue, makes him the best fantasy point-per-dollar option on the slate.
Other options tonight include RHP Luis Gil as the Yankees are hosting the Chicago White Sox, though Gil has just seven strikeouts and 10 walks in his three September starts, spanning 16.2 innings. In Toronto, RHP Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays are hosting the Boston Red Sox with a chance to put the BoSox out of the American League East title picture. The Red Sox are five games behind the Blue Jays, while the New York Yankees are the more concerning worry for Toronto at only two games behind.
Gausman is no longer the strikeout artist he was in his late 20s and early 30s, but he is still one of the best at preventing runs and mound meltdowns. Be careful with LHP Cole Ragans, who has a great matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, but keep in mind he was limited to 62 pitches last week against the Mariners after missing over three months due to a strained rotator cuff. Kansas City will be eliminated from the playoffs with the next loss, so there is no reason to push Ragans.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Chase Field roof will be closed, which means maximum effect for the humidor, though that should not dissuade anyone from rostering the Dodgers. In his last appearance, RHP Brandon Pfaadt had a complete-game, one-hit shutout against the Giants. In his four preceding starts, he allowed 16 runs in 17.1 innings, including an abbreviated 4.1-inning, four-run effort in Dodger Stadium.
This has been a rough season for Pfaadt, who has a 5.02 ERA and a 5.56 xERA, though his 4.19 FIP and 3.97 xFIP indicate there has been a little bad luck. He has compiled a career-low 19.1% strikeout rate, while opposing batsmen have been murdering the ball for a combined .187 ISO.
Focus on the power bats, which have been boosted by the return of Max Muncy. Shohei Ohtani should be leading off, and he is pitching, with Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez providing a nice lefty-righty combo in the heart of the order. On the late slate, Andy Pages is in play for differentiation purposes.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Atlanta Braves
The main trouble spot for the 25-year-old is left-handed power. Across 249 opposite-handed matchups, he allowed a .209 ISO and a .215 xISO. It is easy enough to roll out switch-hitter Jurickson Profar, bopper Matt Olson and catcher Drake Baldwin without breaking the bank. Michael Harris II is also in play, though far from crucial. He is seeing the ball well with a pair of multi-hit games, and he had a trio of thefts last night on the basepaths.
Expect him to be running again, as he needs one more stolen base to have 20 in three of the last four seasons. Currently, he is +950 on ProphetX and +920 on FanDuel, with most books in the +700 range. If this comes to fruition, that is $5 into just over $40 of profit, so be sure to use OddsShopper live odds to find the best price.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like Bryce Harper to hit a home run tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
Home runs are fickle, so do not go overboard on your wager size; instead think of this a sprinkling of ducats for entertainment purposes.
