MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 18
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
On Saturday, it was overmatched RHP Tobias Myers, who is only a regular starter because of the injuries to Brandon Woodruff, Nestor Cortes, Aaron Civale and most recently Jose Quintana.
The Twins have plenty of injuries as well, with Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Matt Wallner and utility man Luke Keaschall all out, while Willi Castro is banged up yet again and sat on Saturday.
This has pushed Kody Clemens and Brooks Lee into the heart of the order, with veterans Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers and powerless Ty France trying to keep things afloat. Royce Lewis is back from his own injury, but he is still pretty rusty, limiting him as a threat for now.
Peralta’s strikeouts are down a little year over year, though he still has an elite 27.2% rate since the start of last season. In turn he is allowing less power.
Fastball Freddie will still suffer the occasional home run when challenging hitters at the plate, but that is just a cost of doing business.
Paul Skenes is the most talented pitcher on the slate and potentially in the league right now, as he still has not yet reached his ceiling. He has a tough matchup in Philadelphia as the Pennsylvania teams match up for the Rivalry Series this weekend. Collin Rea is the discount dandy as the Cubs host the White Sox, though the worry with Rea is that he does not have much upside in the way of strikeouts, which are the currency of the MLB DFS realm.
RHP Michael King is the most talented arm, with apologies to 42-year-old, future first ballot Hall of Famer Justin Verlander. The projected Seattle lineup has a 26.1% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers over the last season-plus, which, of course, is the specialty for King, who has a 27.9% combined strikeout rate in that same period.
Switch-hitters Cal Raleigh and Jorge Polanco are the most dangerous bats, then things fall off to Rowdy Tellez, who should be near the middle of the order with the platoon advantage before the back of the order falls apart with the likes of Miles Mastrobuoni, Leody Tavares and Ben Williamson. These are the matchups where the Mariners really miss Luke Raley.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Baltimore Orioles
Then there is Tampa in Miami against RHP Cal Quantrill, who looks like he is throwing batting practice. Wrapping up the top tier is the crushing Cubs taking on RHP Jonathan Cannon in Wrigley Field.
That brings us to the Orioles, who are wrapping up this iteration of the Battle of the Beltway against the visiting Washington Nationals. Baltimore has been awful, horrible, no good and very, very bad this season. The O’s have a 15-29 record and lost 11 of the last 13 games, including the most recent five. The Batters of Birdland plated six runners twice in the last four days, so there is hope that things are finally turning around.
Washington is so desperate for pitching that RHP Mike Soroka is getting one last chance to show he can stay healthy and potentially make good on the promise he showed for so many years as a prospect with Atlanta. So far it has not been particularly good, as Soroka suffered a strained biceps in his debut for the Nationals. This was a new injury, with most of his others being to his shoulder, forearm and elbow.
This afternoon will mark the fourth appearance of the season for Soroka, who has allowed six earned runs in his last two appearances, spanning nine innings against the Cleveland Guardians and on Tuesday in Atlanta.
Tyler O’Neill (shoulder) has been dinged up, and though he was expected to return yesterday, he ended up being a late scratch after warmups. Having him healthy will be helpful in replacing Anthony Santander, who signed with Toronto in free agency. Gunnar Henderson and Ryan O’Hearn have been steady producers against right-handed pitching this season, while Cedric Mullins cooled off after a scorching heater. This is the trio to target, along with switch-hitting catcher Adley Rutschman and potentially Jackson Holliday if he lands in the leadoff role.
In summary, there are plenty of stacking options on the featured slate, so gamers who are against the Orioles have plenty of alternatives.
Late Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Rookie RHP Chase Dollander is the top prospect in the Colorado system, and he is just inside the top 25 on most industry lists. He was the ninth overall selection in the 2023 MLB Draft after a strong showing at the University of Tennessee. He has an excellent fastball with good movement that he can get towards 100 mph on occasion, averaging in the mid-90s. His secondary offerings are still a work in progress, which, along with calling Coors Field home, has him battling though his on the job training.
Dollander made the jump to The Show after one four inning appearance at Triple-A this season. He showed enough in his rookie year — carving up Single-and-Double-A with 12.89 strikeouts per nine innings in 118 frames — that Colorado decided to promote him a couple months early.
The Diamondbacks have benefited from having the roof open at home more often than usual, with the beastly heat not yet regularly hammering Phoenix. That said, this month Arizona put up 11 runs in Philadelphia and added games of six and eight in pitching-friendly San Francisco this week. This has helped the team score the fifth-most runs in the league this season, and gamers have already forgotten that it led the league by 44 runs last year.
The top 6 in the projected order all profile well against right-handed pitching, with Corbin Carroll, Josh Naylor, Ketel Marte, Eugenio Suarez, Pavin Smith and Lourdes Gurriel being the preferred order of preference, taking into account price, projection and positional eligibility. Young Jordan Lawler is the discount dandy at a $2,400 salary on FanDuel, offering eligibility at second, third and shortstop, and he is $2,500 on DraftKings, though he can only be played at shortstop.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take Andrew Abbott under 4.5 strikeouts, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
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Abbott is a solid pitcher who does have strikeout ability. However, he is projecting for 4.62 this afternoon, and while that is above the 4.5 target, it is below the five needed for this under to lose. Cleveland does a good job of limiting strikeouts to left-handed hurlers, with a 15.8% rate for the projected lineup over the last season-plus. The team also has ample power against southpaws with Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Jhonkensy Noel and even Kyle Manzardo. That plus the boost proffered by hitting-friendly Great American Ballpark are enough to push the math in favor of the under for this wager today.
