MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Just how bad was his last start? Well, dear reader, he allowed four earned runs, six hits (two of which were home runs) and a pair of walks, accompanied by six strikeouts. Yes, everyone was hoping for more against the Los Angeles Angels, but this individual start was only disappointing based on the lofty expectations of the 28-year-old, who still has a commanding lead in the Cy Young odds again this season at -400, with Garrett Crochet (+400) and Nathan Eovaldi (+2500) the next closest competitors.
Tonight the superlative southpaw will be in Minnesota taking on a Twins lineup that projects to have five hitters who have a 25% strikeout rate against lefties this season. Byron Buxton returned to action on Monday, though he is not enough to dissuade savvy gamers from finding ways to roster Skubal tonight.
Dylan Crews is expected to return to the Washington lineup over the next day or two, having been on the injured reserve since hurting his oblique back on May 20. The second overall selection in the 2023 MLB Draft was just starting to gain some traction when he was injured, though he otherwise has had a tough go of things in The Show.
Neither of the two aforementioned tidbits should have gamers rostering or avoiding LHP Jesus Luzardo, though it is good to keep track of potential changes on one of the most anemic offenses in the league.
The active roster for the Nationals has a woeful 82 wRC+, which is the third lowest in the league. Weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes different variables, including park factor, to build a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100. This means that Washington is creating runs 14% less efficiently than league average against lefties. For additional perspective, this is about 40% lower than the Dodgers and Yankees.
In a fun quirk, over his last 10 games, Luzardo tallied seven strikeouts six times and four strikeouts in the other four outings. This works out to 58 strikeouts in 54.1 innings, with a 4.14 ERA that has been slightly unlucky based on his 3.57 FIP and 3.56 xFIP.
Other options include RHP Kodai Senga in New York against an Atlanta squad that is shaky at best without Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley. Then there are RHPs Edward Cabrera and Tanner Bibee in Cleveland as the Miami Marlins take on the Guardians.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Philadelphia Phillies
Rookie RHP Brad Lord has survived thus far in a mixed role between the bullpen and the rotation. The 18th-round selection in the 2022 MLB Draft barely cracks the top 35 prospects in the Nationals system, and he may not have a prayer tonight against a loaded Philadelphia offense.
Lord has limited longballs with a ground ball rate that is approaching 50%. He has held fellow righties to a 2.1% barrel rate, but lefties have an 8.9% rate, and that bodes well for Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, with Brandon Marsh looking like a discounted differentiation option. Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Harrison Bader and catcher J.T. Realmuto are candidates to round out full stacks, so let positional requirements and salary cap constraints be your guide.
Main Slate Secondary Target: New York Mets
In the two subsequent seasons, across 29 starts, Elder has a 6.25 ERA, which is actually a little worse than his 5.35 xERA, 4.95 FIP and 4.14 xFIP, but he is a fourth starter at best and far from even an average rotation arm. Things have been particularly rough over his last trio of tilts, with 15 runs in 15.1 innings, despite only two longballs and a pair of doubles. Elder is not missing bats, striking out only 11 in this stretch, accompanied by eight walks.
The Mets are loaded with power, and changing out Tyrone Taylor for former Baltimore outfielder Cedric Mullins has been a solid upgrade at the plate and in the field. The focus, of course, is still on the usual suspects, with superstar Juan Soto, slugger Pete Alonso, switch-hitter Francisco Lindor and unsung Brandon Nimmo being the core four. Jeff McNeil has been in a slump over the last month, though his season numbers are still strong.
Veteran Starling Marte is a neutral option in stacks, but Brett Baty offers salary savings from the bottom of the order, and keep in mind he still has synergistic upside as part of a “wraparound” stack.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like the Cleveland Guardians to handle the visiting Miami Marlins tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
