MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 24
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
The projected lineup for the Marlins has a low 6.7% walk rate against right-handed hurlers over the last season and change, but this collective crew has only a 19.0% strikeout rate, which is right around where Soriano is as well. Run prevention is key, with the paucity of overall whiffs for the Halos hurler.
RHP Luis Ortiz has had moments this year and his 56 strikeouts in 48.1 innings is stellar. Walks are also an issue with him and like Soriano he is handing one out every other inning. This leads to inefficiency and while Ortiz is comfortable with a 100 pitch workload, he rarely goes more than five innings. There are holes in the Detroit lineup, but the Motor City Kitties have improved from last year, when they were a playoff team.
A big reason for the overall Tigers triumph is the development of RHP Casey Mize. The former first-overall selection of the 2018 MLB Draft looks like he is on the verge of a breakout. He hasn’t yet put everything together, either having walk or power issues and inconsistent strikeout stuff. That said, he has a 6-1 record, with a 2.53 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in seven starts, spanning 42.2 innings.
Mize has been out since early-May with a strained hamstring and he elected not to make any MiLB rehabilitation starts. He did work three innings in a simulated game on Monday and there has not been any indication of a pitch count. The strain was considered mild and Mize continued to throw during the recovery period.
Most DFS gamers tend to lose site of the overall standings, since we are ensconced in the day-to-day grind of matchups. It will be surprising to some to learn that the Tigers have the best record in the American League at 33-19, trailing Philadelphia by half a game for the best record in baseball.
Detroit is not going to overwork Mize, but we should also be confident that they are not rushing him back into action either. Assuming everything goes well, an 80-to-85 pitch workload is a reasonable projection, unless manager AJ Hinch indicates otherwise.
The Cleveland lineup is the haves (Jose Ramirez, Bo Naylor, Steven Kwan) and the have nots (Angel Martinez, Lane Thomas, Nolan Jones), with aging Carlos Santana and inconsistent Gabriel Arias in the middle.
FanDuel ($11,000) and Yahoo ($55) are appropriately giving Fried the ace treatment, since he leads the league with a 1.29 ERA, ranks seventh with an 0.931 WHIP and the 31-year-old southpaw is also striking out nearly one batter per inning. The Rockies have a 55 wRC+ against lefties this season, which means they are scoring runs 45% less than league average, when park factors are neutralized. Baltimore is the second-worst team, with a 63 wRC+ which is nearly a full standard deviation better than Colorado.
The Rox are first (and not in a good way) with a 27.9% strikeout rate this season against left-handed pitching and their .129 ISO, which gives full credit for Coors Field, is below league average from a power perspective.
Valdez is a typically “safe” pitcher for DFS, with a stellar 55% groundball rate, while also striking out around 8.5 batters per nine innings. This helps him limit power and damage when the inevitable screaming line drive gets into the gap, since the bases are usually empty.
Seattle actually has several hitters with a good deal of familiarity facing Valdez and while that should not be a major factor in our decisions, it is notable that the current roster has a .282/.352/.436 triple-slash line, seven home runs, 18 total extra-base hits and 52 (24%) strikeouts in 220 at bats.
Woo rounds out the preferred pitchers, particularly with Houston missing Yordan Alvarez who is out with a hand injury. The 25-year-old has only faced the Astros twice, so the Houston hitters are not as familiar with him, as the Mariners are with his counterpart having seen Valdez 17 times.
From a run creation perspective, the ‘Stros are solid with a 103 wRC+ against righties, while limiting strikeouts (20.3%) but they have been mediocre at best on the power front. The bottom-third of the order is where Woo should be able to gain ground, so as long as he can mostly mitigate the likes of Christian Walker, Jose Altuve and Isaac Paredes, there is a good chance he pays off his DFS salary this afternoon.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Philadelphia Phillies
The temperature will be sliding down through the 70s tonight in West Sacramento at Sutter Health Park. Springs looked like a late-bloomer, though Injuries in the last couple of seasons have put the kibosh on the budding strikeout artist and accelerating him back to being a crafty lefty. This ballpark is proving to be offensive friendly, which makes it a tough home for a flyball pitcher, particularly against a team like Philadelphia that has power up and down the order.
Perhaps the Phillies just needed an acclimation day, going from a Coors Field series, back to sea-level. The only hitters who do not profile well against Springs are catcher J.T. Realmuto and outfielder Johan Rojas. The core four at the top of Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos are obvious, while Alec Bohm, Edmundo Sosa and Weston Wilson provide some differentiation from the back of the lineup.
The Angels are in play against RHP Cal Quantrill, with the Toronto Blue Jays getting a park boost in Tampa, against enigmatic RHP Shane Baz. It is going to be in the mid-80s, with 60%-to-70% humidity at George Steinbrenner Field, so the Rays are also in play against erstwhile ace RHP Jose Berrios.
Early Slate Secondary Target: Chicago Cubs
The Yankees are in Coors Field, facing LHP Kyle Freeland, with a team total again cresting over seven runs. New York has three-times the likelihood of being the top scoring stack over every other team in action. That is how we end up with Chicago, in the most homer happy park in the league, as a “secondary” options.
To be clear, LHP Andrew Abbott is an above average pitcher, but he has a 33.9% fly ball rate against his last 727 batters faced, which can create trouble in the Great American Ballpark. The Cubbies have plenty of power and now that switch-hitter Ian Happ is healthy, this is a daunting and seemingly endless lineup.
Seiya Suzuki and Kyle Tucker are one of the best righty-lefty duos in the game, particularly when Happ is at the top of the order. Catcher Carson Kelly has enough power to warrant his frequent role as the cleanup hitter and Dansby Swanson does his best work with the platoon-advantage. Then there is budding superstar Pete Crow-Armstrong has flashed power in same-handed matchups this season, adding to his already impressive arsenal as one of the fastest players in the game, a strong fielder and a borderline All-Star caliber talent with the platoon-advantage already.
Nico Hoerner and MLB lifer Justin Turner are good at making contact and rookie Matt Shaw has already displayed light-tower power against lefties. Expect some wild scores this afternoon, which should create a fun tournament table!
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Run prevention is the hallmark for Keller, with most season long projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat) downgrading him to just under eight strikeouts per nine innings, despite an 8.7 per nine career mark. Aside from slugger Rhys Hoskins and newcomer Isaac Collins, most of the Brew Crew has low strikeout rates against right-handed hurlers.
