MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Two of RHP Logan Webb’s three worst outings came in appearances on either side of the All-Star Game, though it is hard to hold a bad outing against him when he is facing the Los Angeles Dodgers. On Saturday, Webb was cruising along with five scoreless innings before things went sideways in Toronto during the sixth inning. Five of the first six batters recorded hits, leading to a four-run inning and the loss for Webb.
Even though Webb has slipped out of the top 3 contenders for the National League Cy Young Award, he is still a terrific DFS option with his mix of ground balls (52%) and steady strikeout rate (25.8%). The Mets are a top-heavy offense, though the bottom of the lineup card is very susceptible to strikeouts against right-handed hurlers. This season has seen Mark Vientos (26.9%, 201 plate appearances), Brett Baty (25.2%, 218 PAs), catcher Francisco Alvarez (28.4%, 116 PAs) and youngster Ronny Mauricio (25.9%, 85 PAs) all strike out well above league average when facing righties.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Woo continues to be one of the most efficient pitchers in the league, averaging just 14.27 throws per inning. He is second in the league with 14 quality starts and closed out the sixth inning in all 19 of his appearances. This has led to career bests across most categories, and his 2.91 ERA is supported by a 3.17 xERA, 3.53 FIP and a 3.56 xFIP.
This will be the seventh time in his career that Woo has faced the Halos, with his last time coming nearly a year ago on the final day of August. Only Jo Adell (3-for-3, 2 home runs) and Nolan Schanuel (3-for-8, no extra-base hits) had any personal success against Woo.
For those not interested in Webb or Woo, LHP Shota Imanaga is in Chicago against the hapless White Sox. The Pale Hose won five of their last six games, scoring a whopping 49 runs in this stretch, which represents almost 13% of their total runs on the season. Despite the recent flurry of offense, the team is still averaging only 3.69 runs per game, which is the fourth fewest in the league.
In Texas, RHP Nathan Eovaldi is facing a meandering Atlanta squad that is 10 games out of the Wild Card race and potentially being sellers during the upcoming trade deadline. Not having Austin Riley is a big hole in the lineup, particularly with no other hitters being consistent, aside from Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson.
Finally, for those seeking a discounted SP2 on DraftKings, RHP Dean Kremer ($8,000) is a potential consideration going against the Colorado Rockies in Camden Yards. He is less desirable on Yahoo ($42) and only worthy of tournament consideration on FanDuel ($9,000).
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Philadelphia Phillies
Game-time temperatures are going to be in the upper-80s with elevated humidity, courtesy of potential late afternoon rain. Warren has flashed tantalizing strikeout upside, and he does a decent job of limiting fly balls (22.9%), though he can be exploited by left-handed power hitters, ceding a .205 ISO in 298 career righty-lefty matchups.
Unfortunately for Warren, he is going to face Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, who are the best one-two left-handed combination in the league. In his last 599 plate appearances with the platoon advantage, Harper has a .384 wOBA, a .248 ISO and an 11.9% walk rate with a low 20.5% strikeout rate when considering his prodigious production. Not to be outdone, Schwarber has been even better since the start of last year, posting a .364 wOBA, a .271 ISO and a 14.5% walk rate, which more than offsets his 29.0% strikeout rate. Add in the short porch in Yankee Stadium, and this duo is primed for multiple extra-base hits.
Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler are the other Phillies to consider for full stacks, though sticking with the dynamic duo is totally appropriate.
New York also rates out well against RHP Taijuan Walker, with pretty much the entire lineup looking like a sea of green when analyzing actual production against right-handed hurlers this season. DraftKings and Yahoo have assigned hefty salary cap hits to Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr., though that can be averaged down with leadoff man Trent Grisham and Ben Rice.
Main Slate Value Target: Houston Astros
Injuries to Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes and Jake Meyer have opened up opportunities for the likes of Cooper Hummel and Brice Matthews while pushing Cam Smith to the top of the order, and we will likely see Chas McCormick and Mauricio Dubon in prominent lineup slots, taking advantage of their proclivity versus southpaws. Yainer Diaz had yesterday off, so he should be in the mix as a strong catcher option, plus veteran Jose Altuve has a long history of success against southpaws.
Veteran LHP Jeffrey Springs is an innings-eater, and while he has a “never say die” attitude on the mound, he also has allowed the 10th-most home runs this season. Eight of his 19 round-trippers were away from Sutter Health Park, so his home venue does not carry all of the blame. The 32-year-old does his best to induce weak contact, though his fly ball tendencies have him constantly flirting with danger.
Use the ‘Stros to facilitate rosters based on strong pitching and one of the preferred top stacks.
