MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Strider’s fastball has been in the mid-90s, and while this is down a couple of ticks from his last healthy season in 2023, the gap is narrowing. Cherry picking his last six starts, the 26-year-old was outstanding, allowing just 12 runs in 36.2 innings with a whopping 50 strikeouts and only a trio of taters. In this stretch, he had a 2.95 ERA, 2.48 FIP and 2.55 xFIP, so it is easy to understand his popularity.
The bottom of the order is where Strider will need to make his bones against New York, picking on Anthony Volpe, gloveman Oswald Peraza and slumping Paul Goldschmidt. The projected lineup has a 25.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, which plays right into the strength of Strider, who has a 29.0% combined strikeout rate in the same timeframe. Only Goldschmidt (18.8%, 260 plate appearances) and Cody Bellinger (16.6%, 271 PAs) have stuck out less than league average this year.
Across his last 11 starts, Castillo allowed three or more runs five times, though he finished this stretch with a 3.05 ERA, 3.67 FIP and a 3.76 xFIP. He cannot be counted on anymore for strikeouts, even with his 8.31-per-nine innings ratio for this data set. Castillo is posting a dreadful 20.5% strikeout rate for the season, which is a precipitous drop from his 24.3% rate from last year. The one saving grace is that his 28.8% rate against fellow righties last year was stellar, and the fall to 23.9% this season is palatable.
The Astros expect to have only two batters in the lineup swinging the stick from the left side of the plate in catcher Victor Caratini and journeyman (and former Seattle outfielder) Taylor Trammell, who has played in a grand total of 140 MLB games since debuting with the mariners in 2021.
The ‘Stros have to make a move before the deadline since there is not a lot of hope that can be placed on Yordan Alvarez, who has missed significant time, and, of course, with Kyle Tucker in a Cubs uniform, they are down their two best lefties.
Jeremy Pena, Jake Meyers, Jacob Melton and Chas McCormick are also on the injured list, which is pushing the likes of Brice Matthews into the starting lineup and moving Cam Smith up in the order.
For those feeling frisky, RHP Slade Cecconi is a viable SP2 on DraftKings ($7,800) against the Athletics, who are far less potent away from offense-friendly Sutter Health Park.
Cecconi has seen an increase in his strikeout rate from 19.0% to 24.2%, and he has three terrific targets in Nick Kurtz, Max Muncy and Denzel Clarke, who each have a 31% or higher strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers over the last two-plus seasons.
In Los Angeles, RHP Tyler Glasnow is a tournament option against Milwaukee, though it would be a surprise to see him exceed the 85- to 90-pitch range after all of his missed time and with the Dodgers desperate for healthy arms. LHP Max Fried is coming off his second consecutive All-Star nomination and his third in the last four years, heading back to his old stomping grounds in Atlanta against a scuffling Braves offense. That may be a bridge too far for some, though it is intriguing when looking at the simulations.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Prior to the All-Star Break, RHP Quinn Priester was a recommended pitcher in this article series when he faced the Rockies, striking out a career-high 11 in Milwaukee and then again as a tertiary target in Miami, though the Marlins got to him for five runs, sending him to the clubhouse after 4.2 innings. Priester was the 18th overall selection in the 2019 MLB Draft, landing with Pittsburgh right out of high school. He was subsequently traded to Boston and then this spring to Milwaukee, and he is definitely worthy of being a back-of-the-rotation starter. Of course, he is a better real-life pitcher who has been able to limit weaker teams while taking his lumps more often than not against top offenses.
Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez have all been dreadful over the last month against right-handed hurlers, with a collective sub-.080 ISO and a sub-.230 wOBA. Shohei Ohtani continues to be amazing, while catcher Will Smith and outfielder Michael Conforto have picked up the slack. Max Muncy and utilityman Kike Hernandez are on the injured list, which means Tommy Edman and Andy Pages are likely to be in the lineup tonight. Edman has his own struggles of late, but Pages is an interesting tournament target.
The slump for the boys in blue have led to lower salaries, with only Ohtani carrying a gaudy cap hit. That makes things interesting tonight since technically the bottom of the order (Pages, Conforto, Edman and Hyeseong Kim). is truly a discounted stack across the main DFS sites. Milwaukee, of course, has a fully rested bullpen, so Priester doesn’t have to take a full set of lumps against the Dodgers, depending on the mood of manager Pat Murphy.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Baltimore Orioles
The main questions tonight are to find out if RHP Taj Bradley can remember how to get strikeouts and if the Baltimore Orioles can remember how to score runs. Bradley has slipped wildly from his first two seasons, though he is still 24 years old and, of course, pitching at Steinbrenner Field is nothing like Tropicana Field. Bradley did not post more than five strikeouts in any of his last seven starts, landing on the figure three times in this stretch. He allowed just three round-trippers, though opposing teams posted five or more runs on four occasions.
Baltimore has plenty of power against right-handed pitching, with six hitters in the projected lineup surpassing a .197 ISO, while four of them also have a .360 or better wOBA. Tyler O’Neill is back from his injury, though catcher Adley Rutschman is still on the shelf, along with backup Gary Sanchez and utilityman Jorge Mateo.
Lefties are the priority from the Batters of Birdland, with Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holiday, Ryan O’Hearn, Colton Cowser and even Cedric Mullins all in play. Righties Jordan Westburg and Ramon Laureano can be used to round out full stacks, depending on how far apart the lefties land.
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