MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 25
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Injuries limited the now 33-year-old to just 34 innings across the 2023 and 2024 season, but he has shown flashes of the stuff that won him the 2021 American League Cy Young Award in his final season for the Toronto Blue Jays. Ray has not allowed a single longball in his last five games, earning a quality start in each. Home runs are inevitable as he is never shy about attacking opposing batsmen, but he also makes his own magic at the plate with nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings.
The Nationals are without outfielders Dylan Crews, Jacob Young and veteran infielder Paul DeJong. Additionally, their three best hitters are all left-handed, which plays into Ray’s favor. The main worries for the San Francisco ace will be CJ Abrams, catcher Keibert Ruiz and journeyman Amed Rosario; the latter two holding the platoon advantage is about all they have going for them as neither is a particularly feared bat.
Other options include LHP Kris Bubic for Kansas City, and his counterpart RHP Bailey Ober is in play for the host team with cooler weather in Minnesota this afternoon. In Chicago, it will be LHP Patrick Corbin against the White Sox, and while the venerable lefty will likely give up a random home run, he should still have enough in the tank to handle the Southsiders. Finally, in Houston RHP Luis Castillo will toe the rubber for Seattle, and he has a strong history against the current Astros roster, particularly with Yordan Alvarez on the injured list.
The pitcher with the best current form is LHP Jesus Luzardo, who brings a pristine 5-0 record and a top-10 1.95 ERA into West Sacramento. Strikeouts are his strength with just over 10 per nine innings this season. The Athletics have six hitters in the projected lineup who strike out at a 23% or higher clip against southpaws over the last season-plus, but their right-handed hitters do have a fair amount of pop as a tradeoff.
In Atlanta, RHP Dylan Cease will be on the mound for the Padres, though the Braves now have Ronald Acuna Jr. back in the mix, and he has homered in each of his two games since returning from a long injury layoff.
It will be RHP Spencer Schwellenbach leading the hometown nine onto the field, but despite a cool name, he has been average at best this season. He is still only 24 years old, so he has a couple more years of upward trajectory before hitting his prime, but San Diego is a tough matchup now with everyone healthy.
Out on the West Coast, it will be RHP Kyle Hendricks on the mound for the Angels going against Miami. The 35-year-old allowed home runs in all but one of his nine starts this season while striking out just 28 opposing hitters across 47.1 innings.
The Marlins will be riding with RHP Edward Cabrera, who has been solid in May, posting a 3.45 ERA, only three walks and two home runs in his trio of tilts. That is a major improvement from April, when he suffered a 7.23 ERA four home runs and a whopping 11 walks in four starts, spanning 18.2 innings.
Rounding things out for Yahoo, skip RHP Landon Knack, who will have his hands full against the Mets boppers, though RHP Kodai Senga is in play, despite the difficult task of dismantling the Dodgers.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Cincinnati Reds
Though he is only 25 years old, RHP Ben Brown was drafted in the 33rd round of the 2017 MLB Draft out of high school, logging 14 innings in rookie ball that season for the Phillies as a 17-year-old. Like many young pitchers, the cancellation of the 2020 MiLB season derailed his learning curve, so he is a bit of a slow starter. He profiles best as a multi-inning reliever, with his stuff playing well once through the lineup. He may shift to a hybrid role when Shota Imanaga returns from his hamstring injury, but for now he will be in the rotation.
In his last two starts, both against Miami, he allowed eight runs and three home runs in 10 innings. On a positive note, he did not issue any walks and had a wicked 14 strikeouts, which encapsulates and validates that he probably would be most effective out of the bullpen.
Elly De La Cruz and Will Benson have been stellar this season, with TJ Friedl and Spencer Steer rounding out the core four this afternoon for the Reds. Gavin Lux and Austin Hays are neutral options for those looking to craft a five-man stack, though Santiago Espinal is feeling like a trap, even if he is in the two-hole. It is also important to note that none of the Chicago relievers have worked more than once in the last 72 hours, so there are plenty of options to relieve Brown before he completely implodes.
Afternoon Slate Primary Target: Philadelphia Phillies
Ceding power while providing a mediocre level of strikeouts makes him someone to target with the better teams in the league, even though he is likely to have a nice career as a mid-rotation arm. In his last two starts against the Los Angeles teams, in Anaheim and at home, he had five home runs and five walks in 10 innings, though he battled his way to 10 whiffs.
Look to the lefties for Philly, with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber being the desired duo as usual. Bryson Stott is likely to be in the leadoff slot to boost the platoon advantage, while Brandon Marsh is a fine differentiation option from the bottom of the order in a “wraparound” stacking strategy. Most gamers will go with Max Kepler over Marsh, which is acceptable since the former Minnesota Twin is starting to produce.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Buehler is more of an innings-eater when healthy, with his strikeouts sliding down from 10.61 to 7.65 per nine innings over the preceding five seasons. He is at 8.25 per nine through his 30 frames this year, though most of the season long projection systems (ZiPs, Steamer, The Bat, etc.) have him around 7.5. The 30-year-old notched nine strikeouts against the White Sox and seven against Toronto, but he had four or fewer in his five other appearances.
The projected lineup for Baltimore has a 21.1% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers since the start of last year, which is right in line with Buehler’s production in that same timeframe.
