MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 22
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Kirby finished sixth in the 2023 American League Cy Young Award race and was solid for the Mariners last year, leading the league with a miniscule walk rate Expect around 70 to 75 pitches, as the 27-year-old ramped up from 42 to 54 to 64 in his three Triple-A outings.
RHPs Jack Flaherty and Tanner Bibee are doing battle in Detroit, and each is a serviceable selection. They are also among the league leaders in home runs, with Bibee struggling to get strikeouts and Flaherty missing consistency from start to start.
RHP AJ Smith-Shawver is facing Washington for the second consecutive start, having held the Nationals scoreless across six frames in Atlanta last Thursday. The Nats are pesky, though aside from CJ Abrams and James Wood, there are no truly scary bats in this lineup.
Smith-Shawver has just 68.1 innings under his belt at the MLB level, but he has shown some strikeout potential. Walks and contact are his undoing, though he at least has limited power thus far. Similar to the early slate, this is a fun set of games with no true standout option in the player pool. Friday sees the return of the aces as Chris Sale, Zack Wheeler, Matthew Boyd, Freddy Peralta, MacKenzie Gore and Paul Skenes are all slated to toe the rubber.
Suarez ended up on the injured list with a sore lower back prior to the start of the season. This delayed his debut until early May, when Arizona roughed him up to the tune of seven earned runs, seven hits and two walks with six strikeouts. The next two starts were much better, one against Pittsburgh last Friday and the other in Cleveland 12 days ago. Across 14 innings, Suarez allowed nine hits, two walks and three earned runs while striking out 11 opposing batsmen.
Since becoming a full-time starter in 2022, Suarez has maintained a solid 52% ground ball rate while improving his strikeouts each season to just over 8.6 per nine innings. He also does a nice job of limiting home runs, with only 0.86 per nine over his last 448.2 innings, which should help him cobble together a decent outing in Coors Field. The Rockies will be running out a mostly right-handed lineup to get the platoon advantage as much as possible, though the projected card has a 28.2% strikeout rate against southpaws over the last season and change.
If Rodon is off the table, then RHP Stephen Kolek is also worth a flier going against a scuffling Toronto squad. The name sounds familiar since he is the younger brother by one year of Tyler, who was the second overall selection out of high school in the 2014 MLB Draft. Sadly, Tyler did not make it to The Show, never advancing beyond Single-A and last playing in 2019. There is also Tyler Kolek who is a guard for the New York Knicks, though he is not related to the baseball Koleks.
Back to Stephen, he was an 11th-round selection in the 2018 MLB Draft after three seasons at Texas A&M. He meandered through the low minors with the Dodgers before being dealt to Seattle for the proverbial bag of used baseballs. The Mariners had him tweak his pitch mix, which gave him enough of a spark for San Diego to select him in the Rule 5 draft. The Padres used him as a reliever last year and decided to try him as a starter this season. He made five appearances in the PCL for the El Paso Chihuahuas before getting called up earlier this month.
In his first two starts, he did not allow a run, including a full nine-inning shutout of the Rockies in Coors Field. In his last start, the Mariners got to him for a trio of taters, bringing him back down to reality. If not for the rainy day in New York, those crafting fewer than a dozen lineups on DraftKings would not likely land on Kolek, but here we are.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Seattle Mariners
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool gives Seattle the third-best composite score, taking into account salaries, matchup and potential production. The Mariners are in Houston going against RHP Lance McCullers Jr., who is only 12 days removed from a spectacular implosion that saw him record only one out against the Cincinnati Reds while allowing seven runs on three hits, three walks and one round-tripper.
McCullers was injured during spring training in 2023, ultimately needing surgery and missing the rest of that season as well as the 2024 campaign. That is a long layoff, and it is clear that he is still rusty. To the 31-year-old’s credit, he battled Texas in Arlington last Friday, allowing just two unearned runs, though he struck out only two Rangers.
Seattle won six of the last eight games, creating a 3.5-game cushion over Houston in the American League West standings. This is a key four-game series for both teams, as the Mariners can either add to their lead in the standings or be reeled back to the rest of the pack. The M’s have quietly hit the sixth-most home runs in the league this season, and they are in the top third of the league for runs scored and seventh in stolen bases.
The team is missing Luke Raley, but it looks like this may be a career year for switch-hitter Jorge Polanco, while reserve first baseman Rowdy Tellez has been filling in nicely for Raley when there is a right-hander on the mound.
Leadoff man J.P. Crawford is in the midst of a breakout, making contact on everything while also boasting a 13.5% walk rate when holding the platoon advantage this season. Switch-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh is the best bat on the team, and he seems all but preordained to knock one into the bleachers tonight. Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena are excellent options to round out full stacks; they are more fun when there is a lefty on the mound.
Early Slate Primary Target: Philadelphia Phillies
In West Sacramento, it is going to be in the mid-80s as the Los Angeles Angels wrap up their series against the Athletics in Sutter Health Park. The A’s are facing LHP Tyler Anderson, which should be an adventure for the fly ball pitcher. The 35-year-old survives in a favorable home park, but a day game in this homer-happy venue is another story.
The Athletics do not get the same blanket endorsement as the Phillies, but it is close. Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Jacob Wilson and Luis Urias are the key bats to target, with Miguel Andujar and JJ Bleday also in the mix. Similarly, the Angels look good against RHP Luis Severino, who has seen his strikeout rate slide for six seasons down to 6.79 per nine this year. The journeyman can eat innings, but with a 43.5% hard contact rate and a subpar 20.1% strikeout rate across his last 1,090 batters faced, he is constantly dancing on the precipice of danger.
The first wave of Halos includes Taylor Ward, Jorge Soler, Yoan Moncada and, if he is in the lineup, catcher Logan O’Hoppe. Zach Neto just misses the cutoff, but the leadoff man will slot into the core four if O’Hoppe is out for this afternoon affair.
If they can get their bats on the ball, Jo Adell and Kyren Paris could actually be productive from the bottom of the order, and Nolan Schanuel is on a mini-heater, so he is worthy of our attention as well.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Meyers does not have a lot of power in same-handed matchups, and with RHP George Kirby pitching to contact, if Meyers does get a hit, it will likely be a single.
