MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 5
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Boyd has a long history of strikeout success, posting an 8.8 per nine innings rate for his career. The main issue has been health, despite debuting back in 2015 with Toronto, tonight will be only his 189 appearance in The Show.
While his strikeout rate is below average, that should continue to improve, plus he has been on the good side of variance, with 30 whiffs in 33.1 innings. Walks are still a risk, as are long flyballs aka home runs, though Boyd still projects as a top-tier thrower tonight.
The Giants travelled from San Francisco, coming off a weekend series against the Colorado Rockies, who do not have much in the way of pitching. This should play in favor of Boyd, who is going to look like a Cy Young candidate, compared to the likes of Kyle Freeland and German Marquez.
Boyd looks good on DraftKings with his strikeout potential, particularly against the bottom of the order, as little used David Villar, inexperienced Christian Koss and catcher Patrick Bailey each have struck out more than 30% of the time against lefties over the last season and change.
Considering he has cleared five innings in each of his half dozen outings, including three of six innings, Boyd should be in play for the quality start bonus on FanDuel, which is awarded to pitchers logging at least six innings, with three or fewer earned runs.
Back on Apr. 24, Ragans exited the game with a sore groin, which he felt tightness in during warmups and the first inning. Kansas City prudently had their franchise fireballer skip his next turn in the rotation and after a bullpen session, the Royals have cleared him to take the mound tonight. This is the only thing that is keeping Ragas from being the top recommended pitcher.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Mets
This season RHP Ryne Nelson has been working as a multi-inning reliever, drawing his first start tonight with Corbin Burnes (shoulder) being skipped over. Nelson has mostly been kept on a starter’s cadence, while having tallied 54 and 68 throws in his last two appearances. In a twist, his last effort was four clean innings against the Mets in New York, with no hits, two walks and three strikeouts. The 27-year-old is someone we have picked on in the preceding two seasons, with his propensity to allow a lot of hard contact.
Jeff McNeil and catcher Francisco Alvarez are back for the Mets, which extends their lineup even deeper, leaving few weak links. Juan Soto, switch-hitter Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are one of the best trios in the game, even giving the Dodgers a run for their money. Mark Vientos continues to show that his breakout last year was no fluke, with a solid .325 wOBA, .191 ISO and 12.1% walk rate in 107 plate appearances against same-handed hurlers.
Brandon Nimmo is the unsung hero hitting cleanup, who profiles well against Nelson’s pitch mix. Add in the aforementioned McNeil and Alvarez as late-slate options and there is a myriad of ways to craft Mets stacks.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Houston Astros
Myers has been a nomad of sorts, having been traded three times and designated for assignment by two other organizations. Last year he finally made it to The Show, after Milwaukee claimed him off waivers to help shore up the injury riddled rotation. The Brew Crew were happy with the results, with Myers making 25 starts, providing a serviceable 138 innings with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.174 WHIP.
So why are we picking on Myers? Well there is a reason it took him nine years and five different franchises to finally make it to the majors, he just isn’t that impressive. Yordan Alvarez has played once in the last five days, while dealing with a sore right hand and his status is up in the air tonight. That and the 4.1 implied team total are allowing Houston to fly under the radar, which is making them appealing as a secondary stack.
The Milwaukee bullpen has a 4.87 ERA, which is the fourth-worst in the league and even by most advanced metrics they are below average at best. That means if Myers is forced out of the game early, there aren’t any lockdown options coming to the rescue.
New Astros Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes along with the diminutive Jose Altuve are the trio to target from the heart of the order. Even though this is the obvious core, each of these batsmen is projecting to be on around only 5%-to-7% of all tournament rosters on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take Luis Severino under 4.5 strikeouts, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
Seattle’s projected lineup has only a 17.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, though in full transparency the same hitters had a 22.4% strikeout rate last year. Severino himself has a sedate 20.4% combined strikeout rate over the last two year and he has recorded five-plus strikeouts in just two of his last five starts. This wager is likely to go down to the wire, though the math is on our side.
