MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 13
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
It will be in the low 70s at first pitch tonight in Dodgers Stadium, which is neutral for pitchers. Steady presence Matt Chapman and starting catcher Patrick Bailey are both on the injured list, and that leaves the San Francisco lineup exposed. Backup catcher Andrew Knizner is a zero when he is at bat, with a career triple-slash line of .207/.276/.313 accompanied by a 25% strikeout rate. Veteran Mike Yastrzemski has not been able to buy a hit over the last month, and former Milwaukee Brewer Willy Adames is in the same boat, with leadoff man Jung Hoo Lee not far behind. It would be better if Casey Schmidt sat against fellow-righties, but given Chapman is out, that is unlikely.
Yamamoto has improved his strikeout rate from 27.% last year to 30.1% this season. Surprise will be on his side as the Giants have only seen him once in his 31 starts, and that was over a year ago. The win may not come easily and the Dodgers may not have a lead against RHP Logan Webb when Yamamoto exits the game, though the boys in blue are -170 favorites to take the tilt tonight.
It only feels like Elder has been in the league forever, though this is just the fourth MLB campaign for the 26-year-old. Last year was a tough one for Elder, who bounced between the minors (17 starts) and The Show (13 starts) four different times. He started out the season with the Triple-A Gwinnett, being called up after one appearance. In late May, he was back with the Stripers for two starts before rejoining the parent club.
On Saturday, Elder had arguably the best start of his career, holding the Giants to one run in San Francisco while striking out 12 across eight innings of action. Atlanta ultimately lost as the home team plated two runners in the bottom of the ninth, leaving Elder with a no-decision.
Colorado has been dreadful this season, posting some of the worst offensive results by any metric, standard or advanced. Across 920 plate appearances on the road against right-handed hurlers, the team has a 57 wRC+, which is well below the Chicago White Sox (75 wRC+) and Pittsburgh Pirates (73 wRC+). Weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes ball parks and other variables, creating a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100. This indicates that the Rockies are creating runs 43% less efficiently on the road against righties than league average.
For those who remember old-timey stats like batting average, Colorado is at .196, which is just abysmal. This is accompanied by a 27.1% strikeout rate and a 5.9% walk rate, also the worst in the league.
Other viable options are RHP Freddy Peralta in Milwaukee against the St. Louis Cardinals, and RHPs Luis Castillo and Gavin Williams leading the Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Guardians tonight at T-Mobile Park.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Texas Rangers
Texas tallied 16 runs last night, which was the second time it reached that sweet total during the three-game series that just concluded in Minnesota. The team now has eight or more runs in four off the last 12 games, which could be signs of it finally coming around after a peckish first half of the season. The Rangers still have the fifth-fewest runs on the season, though they have been in the middle of the pack with 4.2 runs per game over the last 30 days and they are fifth overall with 5.8 runs per tilt over the last fortnight.
During the 2019 season, RHP Adrian Houser made the switch from reliever to starter, serving as a solid innings-eater for four years with Milwaukee. Last year he joined the New York Mets after being traded, along with outfielder Tyrone Taylor, for pitching prospect Coleman Crow, who was recovering from Tommy John surgery. Houser had a dual role with the Metropolitans before being designated for assignment and ultimately released at the 2024 trade deadline. The Chicago Cubs picked up Houser but released him just three weeks later, despite a trio of reasonable appearances in Triple-A. Baltimore then took a chance before releasing him after three terrible starts for the Triple-A Norfolk Tides.
In December, Houser signed a minor league deal with Texas, though the Rangers released him in May after four nondescript outings at Triple-A Round Rock. Three weeks ago the ChiSox came calling, giving Houser a $1.35 million deal and inserting him in their rotation.
Left-handed power is a problem for Houser, and same-handed batsmen are a challenge as well. Evan Carter has been on a heater, so do not overlook him when rostering the likes of leadoff man Josh Smith, struggling Corey Seager and budding star Wyatt Langford. It looks like Marcus Semien may have escaped the doldrums finally, and switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim is worthy of consideration on DraftKings and Yahoo, which require gamers to roster a backstop.
Late Slate Target: San Diego Padres
The baseball nomad has bounced around after the Dodgers selected him in the 11th round of the 2018 MLB Draft. He had his early experience derailed by the cancellation of the 2020 MiLB season, subsequently being traded to the Mariners in the spring of 2021. After jumping around the various levels of the Seattle organization, Kolek went to San Diego in the Rule 5 draft, keeping him on the roster until a late-July injury ended his season. He was mediocre at best, and if his name seems familiar, it is because of his brother Tyler Kolek.
No, not the Tyler who was a second-round pick in the most recent NBA Draft; the Tyler who was the second overall selection in the 2014 MLB Draft right out of high school. Unfortunately, injuries — including Tommy John surgery — plus the pandemic and overall ineffectiveness curtailed his career after never clearing the Single-A level.
Arizona has been covered in this article countless times this season, and it will likely be featured again tomorrow when it is RHP Ryan Bergert on the mound for the Padres. Tonight, look to the usual suspects in the top 7 of the order.
Turning our attention back to the Friars, they have a fun matchup against RHP Ryne Nelson, who is continually teetering on the brink of danger with his below-average strikeout rate and propensity for ill-timed mistake pitches. The Chase Field roof will be closed for this series, but San Diego has enough power in the lineup to overcome the enhanced effects of the humidor.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is the top target, with lefties Gavin Sheets and Jackson Merrill also profiling well from a power perspective. Jake Cronenworth has pop and provides differentiation from the bottom of the order, while Manny Machado and three-time batting champion Luis Arraez can be used to round out full stacks.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Adames has had a long history of success against fellow righties, including a tremendous .369 wOBA and .240 ISO in 510 plate appearances for Milwaukee. This year has been much tougher with a .309 wOBA and .149 ISO, though his strikeout rate has been consistently around 25%. Between the scuffling and, of course, tough matchup against Yamamoto, it feels good to get the under on 0.5 total bases at plus money tonight.
