MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 2
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Luis Robert Jr. has shown signs of life, after a horrible 2024 season, though nobody else in the projected lineup has produced anything even resembling replacement-level production against left-handed hurlers this season.
It has been a mercurial season thus far for LHP Framber Valdez, who has an overall mediocre 4.00 ERA, with 31 strikeouts in 36 innings however, 12 of his 16 earned runs came in two games, with just four in the other 27 innings.
The velocity is up a little from last year, though down a little from 2023. Currently he has a career-low 51% groundball rate and 7.75 strikeouts per nine innings, so there is definitely room for upside, particularly in this “get right” spot.
While it is folly to try an project the victory bonus, Houston is currently -240 road favorites in the Windy City, against the very hittable RHP Jonathan Cannon. Over the last two-plus seasons, Valdez has collected the fifth-most quality starts, with 41 in his 65 (63%) appearances. That is crucial on FanDuel, where the blue site awards a bonus for pitchers who clear six innings, with three or fewer earned runs. The Pale Hose have reached four runs in only nine of 31 (29%) games.
For those needing more strikeout upside, LHP Max Fried is in the Bronx, facing a Tampa team with only Yandy Diaz and Jose Caballero producing positive anything against lefties this season. Five hitters in the projected lineup have struck out at least 27% of the time against lefties this season, while four have cleared that mark when reaching back to the start of last year.
Fried has been just above league average in this timeframe for creating his own magic and early lines have him at even-money for over 5.5 whiffs. The 31-year-old held the Rays scoreless for 7.2 innings 12 days ago and while he only had two strikeouts, he ceded only two hits and a pair of walks. April was a stellar month for the former Atlanta ace, with an elite 0.82 ERA, a 0.909 WHIP and a steady 29 strikeouts in 33 frames. He has not allowed a runner to cross home plate in 17.1 innings, which is the cherry on top of this DFS sundae.
Excluding pitcher German Marquez, who is 2-for-2 in his career against Ray, because of course he is … the rest of the active Rockies have one hit in 19 at bats against the San Francisco southpaw. Of course that is no guarantee of success tonight, but the dichotomy of going against Verlander last night, to facing Ray tonight, with a lack of familiarity and strikeout-happy roster definitely favors Ray.
Wrapping up the lefties is Tarik Skubal, who sits atop the salary list, across the various MLB DFS sites. The reigning American League Cy Young Award winner is in Anaheim, taking on the Angels, who are likely to be without Mike Trout, who is questionable after leaving Wednesday’s game against Seattle, with knee soreness. Los Angeles is already missing offseason acquisition Yoan Moncada, creating a depth issue for this paper thin offense.
The only positive for the Halos, is that the team does a decent job of limiting strikeouts, though they are going against one of the most feared pitchers in the game, so there is little solace in that attribute.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Chicago Cubs
Last year he had an anemic 10% swinging strike rate, which has slide to 8.6% this season. When he is not inducing wormburners, his 52% hard-hit and elevated walk rates can lead to some terrifying innings. Priester will be 25-years-old this fall, but considering how quickly the Red Sox gave him the “nah wave” by sending him to Milwaukee for a long shot hitting prospect, there is unlikely to be much upside remaining on his talent trajectory.
Keep in mind that the Brewers are without Nestor Cortez, Brandon Woodruff and Aaron Civale, which has them scrambling for anyone to eat innings after Freddy Peralta and fifth-starter Tobias Myers.
On Thursday afternoon, the Cubbies took care of business against RHP Paul Skenes, which should have tonight’s matchup feel like batting practice. Chicago has one of the best offenses in the game, so it is nice to see that DraftKings has put appropriate salaries on Kyle Tucker ($6,200), Seiya Suzuki ($5,300) and Michael Busch ($5,100). Yahoo did a similarly solid job on the pricing for this trio, though FanDuel is lagging behind. That turns this stack from contrarian to popular, depending on your DFS site of choice.
Switch-hitter Ian Happ is a strong selection at the top of the order, while budding start Pete Crow-Armstrong has an intriguing power/speed profile. The Milwaukee bullpen has assumed a heavy workload, stepping in for the shallow rotation, so there are not many fresh arms in reserve.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Athletics
Bellozo has just 54 innings at Triple-A, all since being dealt to the Marlins. The twist is that he has a sub-30% ground ball rate at this level, as well as against the 328 hitters he has faced in The Show. To say he is an “extreme” fly ball pitcher doesn’t have enough emphasis on his outlier skillset. He doesn’t miss bats with an 8.1% swinging strike rate and pitchers can only survive warning track outs for so long, before crooked numbers are on the scoreboard.
Stick with the usual suspects for stacks, with Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, Shea Langeliers, Lawrence Butler and JJ Bleday being the foundational building blocks. Depending on where he is in the lineup, Luis Urias does hold some intrigue as a discounted differentiation play both for stacks and as a one-off, particularly on DraftKings ($2,800) and FanDuel ($2,300).
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take Ryan Pepiot under 5.5 strikeouts, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
Pepiot is a solid pitcher, with decent strikeout stuff. However, he is susceptible to power and the torpedo bats, along with those swinging them for the Yankees could chase him early from the game. The 27-year-old has recorded six or more strikeouts in half of his six starts this season, including a solid seven against New York 12 days ago.
