MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 16
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Gilbert had just over a month with no official pitching work, as his first rehabilitation action was on May 29 when he recorded 45 pitches. In two subsequent starts, he threw 60 and 72 pitches, so we should not expect a full workload tonight. Assuming he does not labor in any particular inning, he should be good to go five frames or 80 to 85 pitches.
The Boston front office shocked everyone on Sunday evening, announcing a surprise trade with the San Francisco Giants centered around Rafael Devers. The return players were LHP Kyle Harrison, RHP Jordan Hicks, RHP Jose Bello — who is a 20-year-old pitcher who should make it to The Show in a couple years as a long reliever or spot starter — and prospect James Tibbs III, who is an outfielder and was the 13th overall selection in the 2024 MLB Draft out of Florida State University.
It would seem that the Red Sox leadership was not great at communicating to Devers about the offseason signing of fellow third baseman Alex Bregman, who is currently out with a quad injury. He is a better fielder than Devers, so the latter moved to a designated hitter role with some grumbling. The impetus for the trade is that when the club asked if Devers would consider playing first base after Tristan Casas was lost for the season, he said “no thanks, I am only a designated hitter now” (paraphrasing, but it had to be something close to that, right?!).
Matt Chapman is currently out with an injury, but he has five Gold Gloves in his career with three different teams, including each of the last two seasons. So it would seem that Devers may continue to be a designated hitter, unless he decides that with his new team he is willing to play first base — which is a major point of weakness for the Giants.
Back to tonight, the BoSox are likely to be starting all three of their top prospects in Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell. The team just completed a sweep of the Yankees and has won eight of the last 10 games, though the last five were courtesy of effective pitching as the team totaled 15 runs in those tilts. In addition to Bregman and Casas being out, Wilyer Abreu is also on the injured list, leaving the Red Sox now down four of their top 6 hitters from Opening Day.
Across his last 140.1 innings, spanning 26 starts, he had a steady 9.62 strikeouts and 0.90 home runs per nine innings. Each of the last two seasons saw him post a strikeout rate just over 25%, though like most power pitchers, his ground balls a little light and his fly balls are a weakness, particularly to left-handed batsmen in Yankee Stadium.
Fortunately, Los Angeles does not have much power from the left side of the plate, with switch-hitters Yoan Moncada out due to injury and Luis Rengifo not much for extra-base hits. First baseman Nolan Schanuel did homer yesterday, though that was only his fourth of the season and 18th of his career, despite having 869 official at-bats across 244 games in two-plus seasons.
The projected lineup for Anaheim has a 26.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last season-plus, which is accompanied by an above-average .167 ISO. The Halos are rolling with RHP Jose Soriano, which in turn has New York as a -210 home favorite to garner the victory.
Other options tonight include shaky RHP Jake Irvin in Washington against the hapless Colorado Rockies and RHP Lance McCullers Jr. on the road in West Sacramento facing the Athletics. The Rox are historically bad, so there is no need to delve into that matchup. The potential for McCullers is that he has the ability to induce enough ground balls that he may be able to navigate the offensive advantages of Sutter Health Park.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore is in Tampa Bay, where the game-time temperatures at Steinbrenner Field are expected to be in the mid-80s with elevated humidity in the 60% to 70% range and the chance of roving showers. For all the inconsistencies with the O’s offense, the team does have a .182 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, which ranks fourth in the league, as does its 23.4% strikeout rate, and its 112 wRC+ is a tick above the home team.
RHP Ryan Pepiot is a decent pitcher, though going from Tropicana Field to the Yankees’ spring training venue is a major park downgrade. This is causing most pitchers to be around 15% to 20% less effective from a fantasy point perspective, which is something to enjoy as the rest of The Masses have still not really caught on to the park effects.
The Orioles should have at least six lefties in their lineup, assuming Ryan O’Hearn (ankle) is available. That is the primary place to start, and Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holiday, Colton Cowser and Cedric Mullins are all in play. Switch-hitting catcher Adley Rutschman does his best work when swinging the stick from the left side of the plate, and Jordan Westberg (.289 ISO, 82 plate appearances) and Ramon Laureano (.342 ISO, 84 PAs) have more than held their own in same-handed matchups this season.
The Rays are in play against RHP Zach Eflin, who has steadied the ship over his last three starts, ceding just one longball. However, in the two preceding outings, he allowed seven, with Washington tagging him for four round-trippers and Boston getting a trio of taters.
Focusing on the top 5 in the lineup is key, particularly on FanDuel, where Brandon Lowe, Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Josh Lowe are all mispriced.
Stokastic’s MLB DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a game-changing tool that transforms lineup construction through powerful, data-driven simulations — essential for serious DFS players. See how the Simulator analyzes this single lineup for today’s MLB DFS slate:
Late Slate Contrarian Target: Seattle Mariners
The Dodgers are facing RHP Dylan Cease, though this is a juggernaut offense that still has a 5.1 implied run total, having just seen Cease last Tuesday. In that game, Cease had seven clean innings and 11 strikeouts, though he was living on the edge with a season-high five walks, and he had eight in his last 12 innings.
In West Sacramento, the Astros and Athletics have the highest game total, which is currently pushing 10.5. Both teams are in play, though keep in mind the caveats covered above.
This has the Mariners being overlooked in Seattle, despite going against RHP Lucas Giolito, who has been uneven this season. Injuries erased the 2024 season for the 30-year-old journeyman, though he did lead the league with 41 home runs allowed across 33 starts for three different teams in 2023. Seattle lines up well against right-handed pitching, with switch-hitters Cal Raleigh and Jorge Polanco crushing from the left side of the plate this season.
Rowdy Tellez should be in the lineup, and while he is always a pinch-hit risk, the Red Sox have just two lefty relievers, aside from closer Aroldis Chapman, with soon-to-be 80-year-old Justin Wilson and 33-year-old Brennan Bernardino each having pitched once in the last four days. Either of this duo could be inserted to take on the back of the order in Tellez, with lefties Dominic Canzone and prospect Cole Young on either side of scuffling righty Ben Williamson. If it is a close game, there is a good chance that manager Dan Wilson will turn to Mitch Garver and/or Dylan Moore to pinch-hit.
That is not a major detriment to rostering Tellez and Canzone, but it is something to at least be cognizant of tonight, and it pushes the M’s down a bit on the full slate as more of a mini-stack option.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like Keibert Ruiz over 1.5 total hits + runs + RBIs (HRR). On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet — meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. And with Portfolio EV, you’re not relying on one-off picks. You’re stacking dozens — even hundreds — of +EV wagers at scale using the Mass Entry tool, turning small edges into long-term profit.
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Ruiz is at least making contact against southpaws this season, which is more than what we could say for him last year. He is still only 26 years old, though it looks like the 2023 season is going to be his high-water mark, when he had 18 home runs and a .260/.308/.409 triple-slash line. He is still a decent enough catcher to be an everyday player, though his bat is not really coming along for the ride.
In his 56 starts, Ruiz was lifted for a pinch-runner or hitter only four times, each in the eighth or ninth inning. He tallied at least two HRR in 27 (48%) of these games, and while LHP Carson Palmquist is a decent prospect, he has just 22 innings under his belt against major league hitters.
