MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 12
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
All of the sites have the “late-night hammer” on the docket, so by default, LHP Framber Valdez is the consensus ace on Thursday’s featured slate. The 31-year-old had seven or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances. The southpaw is also a ground ball artist of note, with his 58.9% rate among the best in the league for qualified starters. The combination of strikeouts and groundouts is what makes him a coveted DFS target in most matchups.
Chicago continues to be one of the worst offenses in the league, with the White Sox also getting a third consecutive pitching style this series. RHPs Lance McCullers Jr. and Ryan Gusto have very little in common other than being right-handed, and now the script is flipped with Valdez toeing the rubber.
The projected Pale Hose lineup has six hitters who strike out at an above-league-average rate against lefties, with only lefty Andrew Benintendi and journeyman Michael A. Taylor providing any power of note over the last season-plus. Austin Slater has been seeing the ball well in his 22 righty-lefty matchups this season, with a .466 wOBA and a .450 ISO, though it is hard to be scared away by one lone lefty specialist. Yes, Luis Robert Jr. is always lurking, but his results have been consistently inconsistent for a couple of seasons now.
Senga’s 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings are lower than his 9.4 to 9.7 as forecast by most season-long projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat), though he should see some improvement if his 23.3% strikeout rate continues to hold and even slightly increase.
The Nationals are a “have and have nots” lineup, with their lefties at the top of the order presenting somewhat of a challenge to opposing right-handed hurlers. CJ Abrams and James Wood are All-Star candidates, while veterans Nathaniel Lowe and switch-hitter Josh Bell provide pop.
Luis Garcia Jr. should also be moved up in the order to press his platoon advantage, though the three or four hitters after him are much closer to the “easy out” category than replacement-level bats.
In Minnesota, RHP Bailey Ober will be going against the Texas Rangers, and each side of this matchup is underperforming expectations this season. Ober has been all over the place with his strikeout production and his innings pitched. In his last five appearances, he pitched seven, four, 6.2, three and 4.2 innings, striking out only 17 in these 25.1 frames.
The Rangers have plated the fifth-fewest runners this season, and the team has been the third worst against right-handed pitching, with an 86 wRC+ that indicates it is creating runs 14% less efficiently than league average. It helps to have Corey Seager healthy, but on the flipside, it is wild to remember that Texas won the World Series only two years ago and still has most of its key offensive contributors on the current roster.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Kansas City Royals
Warren is one of the better pitching prospects in the New York organization, though it looks like his ceiling is that of a No. 4 starter. He has just over 200 innings and 40 starts at Triple-A, so he is unlikely to be sent back to the minors. If anything, he could slide backwards into a swingman role, as his 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings in his 80 frames in The Show are very impressive. Of course, the downside is that he has walked 4.28 per nine while also giving up some untimely extra-base hits.
The main Kryptonite for Warren is left-handed power, which, aside from Vinnie “Pasquatch” Pasquantino, is sorely lacking in the Kansas City offense. Top prospect Jac Caglianone has upside, but he is very green, and lefties Kyle Isbel and John Rave are bottom-of-the-lineup bats for a reason.
Superstar Bobby Witt Jr. and veteran Salvador Perez are strong options, while Maikel Garcia is in the midst of a breakout year. Garcia has absolutely crushed same-handed pitching, with a .379 wOBA and .169 ISO that feels almost twice as productive as he was over the last two seasons. He also has the green light on the basepaths, giving him additional DFS upside.
Early Slate Secondary Target: New York Mets
To his credit, the now 27-year-old has made himself into a back-of-the-rotation starter, but that is no match for an offense as bountiful as the Metropolitans. Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, former National Juan Soto and Jeff McNeill all hold the platoon advantage, and each has posted gaudy numbers against right-handed pitching this season.
Ronny Mauricio is the inexperienced prospect who provides salary relief, along with journeyman Jared Young, who is getting spot starts with Jesse Winker and Jose Siri on the shelf. Finally, it looks like Brett Baty may finally escape the MiLB banishment, both through his production this year and with Mark Vientos currently out due to a hamstring injury.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Capra was a 20th-round selection by Toronto in the 2018 MLB Draft after playing at Eastern Florida State College and the University of Richmond. He bounced around with Pittsburgh and Milwaukee before the White Sox claimed him off waivers. The now 28-year-old has a grand total of 116 plate appearances in The Show over the last four seasons, with a .114/.168/.181 triple-slash line that includes just five extra-base hits and a hefty 28 strikeouts. Maybe he lucks into something against Valdez or an Astros reliever, but let’s take the plus money and hope he does not.
