MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
This is aided by the Red Sox being -250 home favorites, even with Miami’s projected lineup being below league average at a 17.1% strikeout rate against southpaws. It is important to note that Agustin Ramirez (29.4%, 102 plate appearances), Heriberto Hernandez (34.3%, 70 PAs) and Derek Hill (38.3%, 47 PAs) still provide a trio of windmill impersonators. While Crochet has seen his strikeout rate slide from 35.1% last year to 30.6% this season, the Chicago White Sox capped him at four innings from July onward last year to preserve his health and, more importantly, his trade value.
For those in need of some salary relief, RHP Ryan Bergert fits the bill on DraftKings ($7,200) and FanDuel ($7,500). He was brought over from San Diego alongside RHP Tyler Kolek, with the Padres receiving catcher Freddy Fermin in return. The 25-year-old projects as a No. 4/5 starter, and while he has outperformed expectations in his limited MLB action, it would not be a surprise to see him land in the minors again for additional experience.
The current White Sox roster is still among the bottom 3 teams in the league with a 90 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, though that is an improvement from the 83 wRC+ compiled for the entire season. The young squad has averaged just 3.63 runs per game in August, but it had five or more runs in six of the 14 games, showing some moxie when everyone is able to perform at the same time. That is the mercurial nature of a young and inexperienced lineup.
It is said that fortune favors the bold, so for gamers seeking more upside than Bergert, RHP Dean Kremer has a decent fantasy projection in Houston against a mostly right-handed Astros lineup. Yordan Alvarez is getting close to a return, though he is still on the injured list, as are Isaac Paredes, Jake Meyers and Brendan Rodgers, with Jeremy Pena questionable after missing Saturday’s contest due to an illness.
The team is without slugger Jonathan Aranda, who has been joined on the injured list by Jonny DeLuca and Taylor Walls, with Josh Lowe being a late scratch last night.
Webb is a ground ball artist, and since the start of last year, he has a 53.7% rate across 1,484 batters faced, with a solid 22.9% strikeout rate.
The 28-year-old is behind the National League Cy Young Award frontrunners this season, though he is still on the shortlist of also-rans. If he is able to navigate the likes of Brandon Lowe and Junior Caminero, he is a strong contender for his 17th quality start of the season, which would move him into the top 3 in that category.
Speaking of ground ball artists, RHP Jose Soriano has upped his 60.1% rate from last year to a stellar 67.5% rate this season. That works out to a combined 64.3% across 1,075 batters in this timeframe, which is the highest rate among any pitchers with at least 250 innings.
That is a profile that could help the 26-year-old survive the hitting-friendly nature of Sutter Health Park, even with the mid-80s afternoon temperatures and light 8 to 10 mph breeze to the outfield favoring bats.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: New York Yankees
DraftKings does not include the Coors Field Extravaganza, which makes for a different set of priorities. It is warm in the Midwest, so going back to the Kansas City Royals at home against another inexperienced right-handed hurler is a savvy strategy.
RHP Davis Martin will front the Chicago White Sox, and he lacks the strikeout stuff to combat a deep Royals lineup. Similar to Saturday’s analysis against RHP Sean Burke, the focus should be on Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Salvador Perez and Mike Yastrzemski. Slugger Vinnie Pasquantino left the game in the first inning with heat related issues, so he may get another day off to fully recover. If he is in the lineup, he is a priority play, slotting ahead of Perez and Yastrzemski.
The Yankees are the priority target in St. Louis against RHP Miles Mikolas, who is in the rotation to eat innings. Mikolas will be celebrating his 37th birthday next weekend, and over his last 11 games, he had a 6.07 ERA, 5.91 xERA and a 5.94 FIP. In these 56.1 innings, the venerable veteran allowed 17 home runs among 33 total extra-base hits.
Cody Bellinger received a day of rest on Saturday, so he should be fresh for this afternoon’s action. Aaron Judge homered last night, and he had two in his last four games, ideally working his way out of a late-summer swoon. Pretty much anyone in pinstripes is worthy of consideration, with the order of preference based on positional eligibility, projected popularity, production and price being Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm Jr. Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan McMahon, Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells.
Late Slate Secondary Target: San Francisco Giants
There is no need to go for a full stack of Giants, though looking at duos and trios is a fine way to separate from the field. RHP Ryan Pepiot is a solid pitcher; however, some of his magic came from having Tropicana Field as his home park. San Francisco is one of the more favorable pitching venues, but given how Pepiot challenges opposing hitters, a home run or two would not be a surprise.
This will be the fifth consecutive road start for Pepiot, who still allowed a trio of multi-home run games in this stretch. Across his last 28 innings, he did have a solid 28 strikeouts, but he also handed out a dozen free passes while ceding eight longballs. This worked out to a 5.79 ERA, a 6.11 FIP and a 4.29 xFIP, making things interesting for the San Francisco sluggers.
Rafael Devers and Willy Adames are the two tantalizing targets, while Jung Hoo Lee and Dominic Smith are secondary priorities with the platoon advantage. Leadoff man Heliot Ramos completes the focus group. These players should also be the first five names on the lineup card, which helps give them synergistic upside as pairs and triplets.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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In his last 10 games, Springs had two, five, seven, five, four, five, two, four, three and six strikeouts. Five hitters in the projected Los Angeles lineup do have a strikeout rate of over 30% against lefties this season, though Springs has seen his strikeout rate sit just below 20% this season while also allowing a .209 ISO to opposite-handed batsmen. The hope for today is that the boppers in the Angels’ lineup will be able to send Springs to the clubhouse early.
