MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Aside from first baseman Nolan Schanuel, Los Angeles is likely to run out a righty-laden lineup though that is only mildly concerning against an apex ace like Skubal. Taylor Ward, Jo Adell and catcher Logan O’Hoppe are the only complete hitters in the lineup, with the ghost of Mike Trout always lurking, of course.
Across his last 1,106 lefty-righty matchups, Skubal had a 32.3% strikeout rate, allowing a scant .115 ISO. Against fellow lefties, he had a 28.5% strikeout rate and a nearly invisible .042 ISO.
Rostering Skubal with another top pitcher and a preferred stack is far from a daunting task since Arizona at home against LHP Austin Gomber and Miami on the road in Atlanta against RHP Bryce Elder offer up ample discount dandies on DraftKings and Yahoo. FanDuel, of course, is FanDueling with cheap hitters, even among the priority stacks.
In New York, RHP Hunter Brown gets a strength-on-strength matchup against the Yankees, who have Aaron Judge back from the injured list. The projected lineup for the Bronx Bombers has a 25.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, though it is also teeming with power. The other ace in action tonight is LHP Cristopher Sanchez, who is in Texas facing the Rangers. Sanchez is in the midst of a career year, trailing only RHP Paul Skenes (-275) and teammate RHP Zack Wheeler (+190) in the National League Cy Young Award odds. Sanchez is sitting at +1200, which is well above the rest of the pack, and only LHP Matthew Boyd (+2000) is within hailing distance.
The Texas offense has been uneven this season, and while it has performed better over the last six weeks, Sanchez is still in play for DFS tournaments across all sites.
The 32-year-old was lucky with a .178 batting average on balls in play, plus an 86.3 left-on-base rate (LOB%) in this timeframe, though he did his part with just over a strikeout per inning and half a dozen home runs in these 56.1 frames.
The Red Sox do set up nicely against right-handed hurlers with the left-handed outfielders, including Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida and talented youngster Roman Anthony. Depending on your DFS site of choice, Pivetta ranks fourth or fifth with his median fantasy point projection for the featured slate, and he is the top option for the robust five-game late slate.
Sticking with the late slate, RHP Luis Castillo gets to face Tampa Bay at the most pitching-friendly venue in the league. T-Mobile Park is the Coors Field for pitchers, which is a major shift for the Rays, who have been playing home games at Steinbrenner Field — a major boost for offenses given the hot and humid Florida weather.
Castillo has done a solid job with run prevention, allowing only 10 runners to cross the plate over his last seven starts. He still gets just enough strikeouts to be solid for DFS purposes, though it is important to note that his 20.9% strikeout rate is a career low.
In Arizona, the Chase Field roof is scheduled to be closed as RHP Zac Gallen goes against the hapless Colorado Rockies. The 29-year-old has posted a career-worst 5.48 ERA, 4.91 xERA, 4.64 FIP and 4.01 xFIP. This has been accompanied by a career-high 1.56 home runs per nine innings, though he has suffered from a well-below-average 64.8 LOB%.
Gallen did manage to go into the lion’s den in his last start, and he tamed the Athletics for just two runs in six innings. To be clear, this is a matchup-based recommendation, with the erstwhile ace being an SP2 on DraftKings and Yahoo for both slates, and he is in consideration on the late slate for FanDuel as a tournament differentiator.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Value Target: Miami Marlins
Tonight RHP Bryce Elder will be on the bump with his current dreadful form. Over his last nine outings, Elder suffered a 9.08 ERA, though he was somewhat unlucky, as confirmed by his still dreadful 6.41 xFIP and 5.17 FIP. Walks were his undoing with a whopping 21 free passes in these 36.1 innings, offset by just 29 strikeouts. When the Marlins faced Elder back in late June, they put up 10 hits, plating five of their 11 baserunners in 5.1 innings.
Since the start of last year, 305 opposite-handed batsmen have posted a .192 ISO against Elder, while 345 same-handed hitters have been even more productive with a .200 ISO. The one-time intriguing prospect does his best to rely on getting ground balls and having his defense do the heavy lifting, but a 50%-plus hard-hit rate is his undoing when balls are in the air.
The trio to target is Kyle Stowers, catcher Agustin Ramirez and Otto Lopez, with Liam Hicks, Heriberto Hernandez and leadoff man Xavier Edwards in the mix for those in need of filling out different positions. Duos and trios should suffice for those seeking salary relief, plus the Atlanta bullpen has had to do a lot of heavy lifting with Grant Holmes recently joining Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo Lopez and AJ Smith-Shawver on the injured reserve.
Main Slate Secondary Target: San Francisco Giants
However, it is the Giants hosting RHP Jake Irvin in San Francisco since the field is currently overlooking this fun matchup. There is nothing positive to say about the Washington pitching corps, particularly with LHP MacKenzie Gore melting down over the last month. Irvin has been useful for the Nationals, managing to take the ball every five or so days, but the book is out for the 28-year-old, with the league punishing him for a career-worst 4.89 ERA, 5.27 xERA, .203 ISO and 15.7% strikeout rate.
The core four of Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames and Heliot Ramos all profile well against Irvin, and first baseman Dominic Smith is a nice swap for Devers on the late slate for in-stack differentiation on both DraftKings and Yahoo.
Over the last eight games, Washington allowed an average of 14.9 hits, 2.8 walks and 2.4 round-trippers, with the Athletics posting a 16-run game, while Milwaukee tacked on a 35 runs in a three-game series. Enjoy!
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