MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
In his last start, LHP Carlos Rodon allowed a trio of taters against the Philadelphia Phillies, with two going to Otto Kemp and one to Nick Castellanos. The outing prior to that just after the All-Star Break saw the southpaw ceding four runs (two unearned) in Toronto with a hefty five walks. The two games prior to the All-Star Game, Rodon held the Cubs scoreless for eight innings, though in the preceding outing, he allowed seven runs in New York to the Mets.
So what do these four wildly different outcomes mean? Well, it is pretty clear that Rodon is not afraid to attack opposing offenses, regardless of their makeup. The combined line for this quartet of matchups is a 4.24 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP and five home runs allowed, with 24 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. It is concerning that Rodon issued 10 free passes in these games, though that is the cost of doing business when getting access to the strikeout upside.
The move from Yankee Stadium to LoanDepot Park is an upgrade for Rodon, further enhancing his upside against a very young Marlins lineup. Nobody in the projected Miami lineup has more than two years of service time, which is wild. Otto Lopez (255) and Xavier Edwards (213) are the only batsmen with more than 200 plate appearances against southpaws.
To credit the youngsters, just three hitters are striking out at an above-league-average rate against lefties, with Agustin Ramirez (28.1%, 89 plate appearances), Heriberto Hernandez (34.5%, 55 PAs) and Jack Winkler (40.0%, 10 PAs) being the easy marks.
It is important to note that while Gilbert closed out the fifth inning in seven of these eight appearances, he is seemingly operating with a soft cap of around 90 pitches, averaging a tick over 88 tosses and reaching 90-plus pitches only twice in this period.
The Texas offense has been uneven all season, as various key contributors have dealt with lengthy slumps and, of course, the inevitable injuries. Joc Pederson has returned, though it is hard to tell if that is really a good thing, as the 33-year-old has a .120/.255/.218 triple-slash line in 133 at-bats.
There have already been countless articles, but for those not following too closely with the trade deadline, Minnesota had quite a fire sale over the last four days. The team did not move Byron Buxton (ribs), who is on the injured list, or ace Joe Ryan.
While the Twins were “only” 5.5 games back in the Wild Card race, there were still five teams between them and the final slot and considering that the Mariners made major offensive upgrades, the postseason chances for Minnesota were pretty low. The team is also on the market, so, of course, making the financials look good is key and clearing out go-forward costs is one way to do that. The team ended up dealing Carlos Correa, Willi Castro, Harrison Bader and Ty France, along with pitchers Jhoan Duran, Chris Paddack, Louis Varland, Griffin Jax, Randy Dobnak, Brock Stewart and Danny Coulombe.
That leaves Friday’s projected lineup consisting of Trevor Larnach, Kody Clemens, Ryan Jeffers, Matt Wallner and Brooks Lee for the front half of the lineup card, which is not horrible, though not overly terrifying either. Struggling Royce Lewis, former Dodger James Outman, plus aging scrubs Mickey Gasper and DaShawn Keirsey are at bottom of the order.
Minnesota should still be better than Colorado and the Chicago White Sox, though not by much. That means RHP Gavin Williams is the pitching discount dandy on DraftKings ($7,800) as the clear SP2, though on Yahoo ($41) there are more talented options in his salary range, albeit with tougher matchups. Williams is in the mix on FanDuel ($8,800), but he is currently projected to be on around 15% of all tournament rosters, which is about half of what Gilbert projects for tonight. That leaves things pretty flat on the blue site, which is another fun wrinkle to address.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
In July, RHP Shane Baz had two rough outings, though both gamers were at Steinbrenner Field as the Chicago White Sox and Athletics combined for 11 earned runs in 11 innings with four round trippers, 15 total hits and three walks. Baz did manage 15 strikeouts, but the Los Angeles juggernaut is going to be far tougher than either of the teams that roughed him up. Game-time temperatures will be in the upper 80s with humidity in the 60% to 70% range.
This season in 58.1 innings in the temporary Tampa venue, Baz has suffered a 6.33 ERA and a .265/.336/.470 triple-slash line. On the road, he has a 2.97 ERA in 60.2 innings with a .227/.306/.386 triple-slash line. The current run total feels light for the Dodgers, as does the over 8.5 runs currently available at -125 on Novig and by using OddsShopper’s Live Odds page, we can see that is well above the over 9.0 runs available in the -102 to -110 range.
The focus should, of course, be on Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and catcher Will Smith as the preferred trio to target. Andy Pages profiles well in this matchup as Baz has allowed a good amount of same-handed power this season, ceding a .350 wOBA and a .214 ISO across 281 batters faced. Mookie Betts has struggled mightily at the plate, though his salary continues to drop, and Teoscar Hernandez and Michael Conforto can be considered for full stacks.
Main Slate Alternative Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor were traded to Seattle, plus Randal Grichuk was sent to Kansas City. Also, Gabriel Moreno, Pavin Smith and Ildemaro Vargas are all on the injured list, but there are still a couple of Diamondbacks to ride with tonight against LHP Jacob Lopez. Unlike most of his counterparts, Lopez has been better at home than on the road, though with his 65 innings split down the middle, it is a small sample size in all directions.
Switch-hitter Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll remain the stalwarts at the top of the order, plus Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will likely be in the three-hole against southpaws. Switch-hitter Geraldo Perdomo is better against right-handed hurlers, though he is a solid contact hitter against lefties. Once upon a time, veteran catcher James McCann was a desirable target when he had the platoon advantage, so he is in play on DraftKings and Yahoo, to help fulfill the pesky backstop requirement.
Expect RHP Anthony DeSclafani to start the game for Arizona, and the venerable veteran should be in the mix for 50 to 65 pitches or around four innings. Fondly known as “Disco Stu” in the DFS world, it has been fun seeing him return to action after missing 2024, recovering from flexor tendon surgery. DeSclafani has always allowed power to lefties, so rookie Nick Kurtz, leadoff man Lawrence Butler and Tyler Soderstrom are the key three from the A’s. The MLB nomad is far from impervious to right-handed power, which also means Brent Rooker and catcher Shea Langeliers are strong options tonight.
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