MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
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MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Ray has an entirely different skillset when compared to teammate RHP Logan Webb. The obvious is that Ray is a southpaw, but he also has a dramatically lower ground ball rate, a higher fly ball rate, and for fantasy, he does have the better strikeout potential. For the numerically inclined, since the start of last year, across 671 batters faced, Ray has 37.3% ground ball, 33.4% fly ball and 25.8% strikeout rates.
This will be the second time this season that the 33-year-old has made a Coors Field start. It also doubles as his second start in Denver since 2020, so there is not as good of a track record to see how his pitch mix holds up at altitude. In that June meeting, he logged 93 pitches, closing out four innings with four runs allowed (two unearned). He also gave up six hits, two walks and had just five strikeouts.
Giving Ray the benefit of the doubt, if he can close out the fifth inning, he will at least be the pitcher of record and in line for a potential win bonus if the Giants are ahead.
The projected lineup for Colorado has only three hitters who strike out at an above-league-average rate, including Hunter Goodman and Jordan Beck, who, along with Brenton Doyle, present the three toughest hitters opposing Ray. For those looking for a leverage stack, Kyle Farmer is also in play from the bottom of the lineup card.
Looking at OddsShopper, we can see that Ray has -112 odds on under 5.5 strikeouts and +105 for over 5.5, which aligns with his 5.3 projected strikeouts for tonight’s matchup.
Other potential pitchers for tonight include RHP Yoendrys Gomez in Minnesota, with the 25-year-old having just held the Twins scoreless for 4.2 innings on two hits, three walks and six strikeouts two starts ago. The soon-to-be 26-year-old is a nominal prospect at best with a ridiculous 13.8% walk rate against his last 224 batters faced. Minnesota is in play as a stacking option tonight, making this game a both-sider (h/t to TMcB), adding to the chaos of Wednesday’s decision-making process.
Veteran RHP Aaron Nola will be making his fourth start since missing three months, though on a positive note, he tossed 95 and 97 pitches in his last two tilts. The negative, well, he is on the road in Milwaukee as the Brewers lead the rest of the league by 4.5 games and rank second in runs scored with 5.51 per game.
In Tampa, once again there will be favorable hitting conditions at Steinbrenner Field as RHP George Kirby and the Seattle Mariners wrap up a three-game set against the Rays. The 27-year-old led the league the last two seasons with the lowest walk and best strikeout/walk rates. He missed the first two months of the year, though he has been a rotation regular since. He is better than league average in his walk and strikeout/walk rates, but far from elite.
Lefty power is an issue, and that means Brandon and Josh Lowe (no relation) will be tricky to navigate tonight. For those seeking a full stack, slugger Junior Caminero and on-base maven Yandy Diaz can hold their own in same-handed matchups, and rookie Chandler Simpson is vying for the stolen base title.
Cortes only made two early season starts for Milwaukee before landing on the injured list for four months. This will be his fifth start since returning to action, and in his 24 innings with the Padres, Cortes was serviceable, albeit while providing shaky DFS production. He was tossed in his last start, which is why he had only three innings in Minnesota, though he should be good for his normal workload of 80 to 90 pitches tonight.
Looking at the O’s, this feels like a “day after clinching a playoff berth” lineup, which sadly is not the case. Trades cleared out Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano, Ramon Urias and Cedric Mullins, while injuries have Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, Tyler O’Neill and Gary Sanchez on the shelf. Aside from Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday, who have struggled in lefty-lefty matchups, and Ryan Mountcastle, who is rusty after his own injury layoff, the Batters of Birdland resemble a Triple-A team at best.
In Washington, RHP Eury Perez has merit against the Nationals, as the Marlins will be getting Thursday off before returning to action against the Philadelphia Phillies in Miami on Friday. The Chase Field roof will be closed in Arizona when RHP Zac Gallen faces the scuffling Texas Rangers. Gallen has had issues himself this year, lacking consistency. He has the better matchup but is in worse form than young RHP Jack Leiter, who appears to be in the midst of a breakout.
Of course, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was lost for the season with an ACL injury, and boppers Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez, and Randal Grichuk were dealt in midsummer deals. The Diamondbacks still have a solid top half of the order with Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo and Corbin Carroll all holding the platoon advantage. Blaze Alexander, plus catchers Adrian Del Castillo or Gabriel Moreno can be used for full stacks or speedster Jake McCarthy, who will be filling in for Gurriel. Yup, more both-sides action is afoot.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Athletics
In Kansas City, the Royals will be facing top Angels prospect RHP Caden Dana, who has had significant walk issues in his limited MLB action. The New York Yankees profile well against RHP Jason Alexander, though it should be noted that the baseball nomad has been in a grove lately.
This is all conspiring to have the Athletics flying somewhat under the radar in St. Louis against LHP Matthew Liberatore. It is going to be a pleasant evening in Busch Stadium with game-time temperatures around 70 degrees. It is important to remember that this venue is one of the more weather sensitive, turning into an offensive haven in the heat and humidity during the summer months, though playing more neutral in the spring and early fall.
Liberatore does limit power to fellow lefties, but Tyler Soderstrom and rookie slugger Nick Kurtz (oblique) are viable options if they are in the lineup. Expectations are that the A’s will be running out most of their right-handed batsmen, with DFS priorities being Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker and rookie All-Star Jacob Wilson.
The team is going to be contrarian, though further differentiation can be found with Colby Thomas, Darell Hernaiz and catcher Willie MacIver, depending on where they land on the lineup card.
Main Slate Primary Target: Miami Marlins
LHP Mitchell Parker has seen his strikeout rate fall from a below-average 20% last season to a woeful 15.1% this year. His power issues have also become more pronounced, and while it is right-handed batsmen who are the key targets, rookie Jakob Marsee has held his own in lefty-lefty matchups with a .482 wOBA and .333 ISO across 33 plate appearances. Yes, that is a small sample size, but he is likely to be hitting in the three-hole and most of the Washington lefty relievers have seen action in the last 48 hours.
Catcher Agustin Ramirez is a priority play, while fellow prospects Eric Wagaman and Heriberto Hernandez are worthy of consideration further down the order. Surprisingly, usual leadoff man Xavier Edwards and heart-of-the-order hitters Otto Lopez and Connor Norby have not produced much against lefties this season, though they should be able to handle the mediocrity of Parker.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Tails By OddsShopper shines.
Take a bet like Rob Refsnyder to hit a home run. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
Six of Refsnyder’s seven round-trippers this season have been off of lefties, plus the part-timer boasts a .300/.390/.560 triple-slash line in 100 at-bats against opposite-handed hurlers. For those not appreciative of old-timey stats, Refsnyder has a 62.5% hard-hit rate and a 13.9% barrel rate in 117 plate appearances versus southpaws this season.
