MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Skenes is in Boston against a Red Sox lineup that has become top-heavy with Wilyer Abreu (calf) still out and now recent addition Nathaniel Lowe on the paternity list. That takes two capable lefties out of the lineup, further paving the way to a good matchup for Skenes.
There is precipitation risk with this game, which will need to be monitored. Also being monitored, by the Pirates, is the workload for Skenes. This is yet another lost season for the Bucs, and there is no reason to overwork their prized pitcher.
That said, his last five starts saw him with 101, 96, 93, 97 and 94 pitches. It is reasonable to hope for 90 pitches as a baseline, though anything above that would be gravy. Now that RHP Zack Wheeler is injured, Skenes has a -3000 expectation of taking home the National League Cy Young Award, with Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sanchez (+850) the next closest competitor (check out OddsShopper’s live odds page for other award races).
Snell will be making his fifth start since returning to action after missing four months due to shoulder inflammation. He recorded 97 and 96 pitches in his last two appearances, and tonight he has an intriguing home matchup against Arizona.
Expectations are that the Diamondbacks will have a mostly right-handed lineup, aside from budding superstar Corbin Carroll and defensively minded centerfielder Alek Thomas. The bottom of the order looks like a potential three-up, three-down spot, with Tyler Locklear and utilityman Ildemaro Vargas joining Thomas.
The priority play is Ray, who made road starts in four of his last five appearances. In his most recent outing, he did not have any strikeouts in Milwaukee, though he held one of the league’s best offenses to only three runs in five innings, allowing the Giants to post a 4-3 victory. The 33-year-old is not afraid to challenge opposing hitters, which, of course, has earned him the DFS nickname of the Ray-llercoaster.
Injuries limited Ray to just eight combined starts in 2023 and 2024, so it has been nice to see that he will be making his 28th appearance of the year. While his strikeout rate is his lowest for a full season since 2016, he also has a pristine 2.93 ERA, a 3.65 xERA and 3.89 FIP, which are among his best marks for his career.
Keep in mind that Baltimore is without Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, Tyler O’Neill, Jorge Mateo and Gary Sanchez, who are all on the injured list. The team also dealt outfielders Ramon Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn and Cedric Mullins at the trade deadline, which has further eroded the offensive depth.
The projected lineup for the O’s has a 27.8% strikeout rate and an anemic .100 ISO against southpaws this season. The remaining “top” options such as Gunner Henderson, Ryan Mountcastle and Jackson Holliday have struggled against lefties, and the remainder of the lineup is populated with youngsters who are still finding their way in the world, such as Colton Cowser, Jeremiah Jackson and Alex Jackson.
Not to bury the lede, but LHP Carlos Rodon is, of course, a strong selection in Chicago against the plucky but overmatched White Sox.
Tolle is among the better Boston pitching prospects, though the 23-year-old is not expected to have a full-time role in the big leagues until next season. He projects for almost 1.1 strikeouts per inning, boasting a terrific fastball with velocity, shape and movement.
The Pirates do set up reasonably well against southpaws, with Bryan Reynolds, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo, and veterans Andrew McCutchen and Tommy Pham being tough outs. Pittsburgh does have three hitters who have struck out at a 33% or higher clip against lefties this year, so that is the appealing potential for Tolle, assuming the weather cooperates.
Tong also projects for over a strikeout per inning, and he is the second-ranked prospect for New York, landing in the top 40 or so of most industry sheets when accounting for all of the other rookies who have been called up. The projected Marlins lineup has only a 15.7% strikeout rate this season against right-handed pitchers, with no one striking out more than league average.
On the flipside, the lineup has a collective .136 ISO against righties, which is pretty shaky. Youngsters Jakob Marsee, Agustin Ramirez and Heriberto Hernandez present the most formidable threat for Tong from a power perspective.
Tolle has the best salary on FanDuel at $5,500, while Tong somehow is at the $25 minimum on Yahoo.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Athletics
He had two MiLB starts in preparation for his return, logging 48 and 76 pitches. It would be a surprise if he lasted more than 60 pitches or four innings with the Chicago offense loaded for bear. There is rain forecast for the Denver metro area tonight, though the coverage does not appear to be widespread enough to cause more than a delay.
The temperature is going to be around 90 degrees at first pitch in West Sacramento with the wind blowing out in the 8 to 12 mph range towards center field. Sutter Health Park has proven to be one of the most offense-friendly venues in the league, which bodes well for the A’s being a countermove against the Coors Field Extravaganza.
Across his last 10 starts, RHP Jack Leiter has been very effective with a 2.86 ERA, backed by a 3.64 FIP and 4.47 xFIP. He has provided solid strikeouts with 10.7 per nine innings and limited power to just five home runs in this span. On the flipside, he is handing out a free pass every other inning, and he failed to complete the fourth inning in three starts.
The A’s projected lineup has four hitters with a 10% or higher walk rate against right-handed hurlers, and two others are just below 8%. The team is bursting with power, which should be able to cause issues for Leiter. Look to the usual suspects as lefties Nick Kurtz and Tyler Soderstrom join righties Shea Langeliers and Brent Rooker to form the core four. Jacob Wilson, Lawrence Butler and JJ Bleday are in the mix on the late slate for differentiation purposes.
Corey Seager is out for Texas, needing to have his appendix removed yesterday, while Jake Burger and Sam Haggerty are on the injured list. This has been a rough season for the Rangers, though tonight we can consider their righties against LHP Jeffrey Springs. Wyatt Langford, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung are the preferred options, with catcher Kyle Higashioka in the mix on DraftKings and Yahoo to fulfill the pesky backstop requirement. If Ezequiel Duran is near the top of the order, he is a potential discount dandy, depending on your DFS site of choice.
Main Slate Tertiary Target: Houston Astros
On the season, Walker now has four round-trippers against lefties but 17 against righties. Things were similar last season with the Diamondbacks when Walker had four home runs against southpaws but 22 against same-handed hurlers. There is no need to get cute on the featured slate with the expansive player pool, though the gambit still is strong on the evening sub-slate when considering Walker has an anemic .125 ISO and a 26.1% strikeout rate against lefties since the beginning of last year. For those wondering about Walker’s personal performance against LHP Tyler Alexander, he is 7-for-30 with one home run, three doubles and four walks for a .233/.333/.433 triple-slash line, accompanied by seven strikeouts.
Anderson allowed home runs in each of his last eight starts, including three multi-home run efforts and 13 total longballs in 45.2 innings. Five other outings ended with two home runs for Anderson in the first half of the season, so this is a sustainable trend.
Houston is sending out a mostly right-handed lineup, though lefty Yordan Alvarez is very much in play as one of the best bats in the league in lefty-lefty matchups and Anderson also struggling in that respect.
Jeremy Pena, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are the three key bats at the top of the order, with catcher Yainer Diaz a target on DraftKings and Yahoo, while Cam Smith is a discount dandy.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Betts has 14 home runs on the season, though he has hit 11 at home and eight against right-handed pitching this season. RHP Zac Gallen has allowed 15 of his 26 round-trippers to fellow righties, which, of course, plays into Betts’ favor. Game-time temperatures will be around 80 degrees in Los Angeles tonight with a light breeze out to right field.
