According to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Toronto Blue Jays lead the way for the evening action, with Cincinnati, Baltimore and Milwaukee each having strong home matchups in the afternoon. On the pitching front, Zach Wheeler, Jacob deGrom and Framber Valdez are the trio to target tonight, with Garrett Crochet well ahead of his peers in the player pool for the early tournaments.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Tampa Bay is expected to put out an entirely right-handed lineup, though that should not be too much of a concern for Crochet, who has a 31.7% strikeout rate against opposite-handed batsmen this season. Three hitters have suffered a 30% or higher strikeout rate this season against southpaws, though the other six Rays are well below league average.
Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero and Christopher Morel are the only worrisome hitters for Crochet, along with catcher Danny Jansen if we are feeling charitable. Crochet is going to need to thread the needle to provide a lot of upside at this salary, particularly with managers not wanting to overwork their pitchers who may appear in the All-Star Game. The 26-year-old has averaged 99.4 pitches in his 12 appearances since the beginning of May, with an average of 96.5 throws across his last four outings.
In Cincinnati, RHP Brady Singer gets to face Colorado and while his new home venue is the most homer happy in the league, even the Great American Ballpark is not enough to save the Rockies and their horrible, terrible, no good, very bad offense. Singer’s strikeout rate has slide from 22.2% last year to 20.5% this season, though the projected Rockies lineup has a collective 26.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed hurlers during the last season-plus.
The other cherry matchup goes to RHP Tanner Bibee, who is in Chicago against the White Sox. Bibee’s current form is pretty shaky, having closed out the fifth inning only once in his last three starts. He fell one out short in Houston Monday and gave up five runs in Chicago to the Cubs in the preceding matchup. The main issue for his DFS production has been a precipitous drop from a 26.0% strikeout rate last year to 20.7% this season. Still at $7,200 on DraftKings, he is a strong SP2 candidate.
Shohei Ohtani is the likely opener in San Francisco this afternoon, with RHP Emmet Sheehan the “bulk” pitcher. There is no need to get cute on FanDuel, especially since Sheehan will not qualify for a quality start, but he is in play on DraftKings ($7,500) as another SP2 option. Plus for those in season long leagues with daily transactions, Sheehan is one way to get a start, without counting against the limit, depending on your league settings.
Sheehan missed last year while recovering from elbow surgery, having been a luxury arm for the Dodgers as a spot starter or multi-inning reliever. He tossed 80 pitches on Sunday against the Houston Astros, allowing one run, one hit and collecting four strikeouts in five innings. Keep in mind this is a 1:05 p.m. local start, which does take away a little of the Oracle Park pitching magic.
The 35-year-old finished second in the voting last year and also in 2021. This year he is leading the National League in total strikeouts (148) strikeouts per nine innings (11.5), WHIP (0.845) and hits per nine (5.7). Fernando Tatis Jr., Gavin Sheets and Jake Cronenworth have been the most productive Padres against righties this season. Three time batting champion Luis Arraez and Manny Machado have been adequate, though far from impressive.
The other interesting note is Jackson Merrill seeing his power fall from a .236 ISO in 431 plate appearances last season against opposite-handed pitchers to .114 ISO in 167 plate appearances this year. This is a 4:35 p.m. local start, so temperatures are going to be in the mid-70s during most of the pitching window for the starters.
In Texas, RHP Jacob deGrom and the Rangers in Houston, taking on the Astros, who have been getting by with smoke and mirrors on offense. Even without Yordan Alvarez out for most of the season, over the last 30 days, the ‘Stros have scored the sixth-most runs in the league with 5.15 per game.
Now Jeremy Pena and Jake Meyers have joined Alvarez on the injured list, so it will be interesting to see if manager Joe Espada is able to keep working his magic. Cam Smith, Mauricio Dubon and Taylor Trammell are now being counted on for secondary production, with Smith being the only one truly answering the bell and he is overmatched now that he is near the top of the order.
This has been a sublime season for deGrom and while he is unlikely to regain his former apex predator levels of glory, he is among the American League Cy Young Award frontrunners. Run prevention has been key, with the 37-year-old’s “worst” games being two outings of three earned runs and one with four. Across his 236 starts, the former Rookie of the Year and two-time Cy Young Award winner has a 5.35 strikeouts per walks ratio, which is the best in league history per Baseball Reference.
Southpaw Framber Valdez rounds out the trio of throwers to target for the four-game evening slate. The Rangers have scored the second-most runs in the league over the last 30 days, helping to pull the team from the dregs of the also-rans. Valdez did allow two home runs in his last start, though that was in Dodger Stadium and in his preceding 10 appearances, across 68 innings he ceded only two longballs. Projecting the win is folly in this matchup, since it is mostly a tossup, but keep in mind it is just fine to pair these aces together on DraftKings and Yahoo.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Early Slate Primary Target: Cincinnati Reds
Blalock was not much better in his last eight starts with the Albuquerque Isotopes, being saddled with an 8.75 ERA, ceding a triple-slash line of .325/.391/.565 along with 18 walks and just 26 strikeouts in 36 frames. We are looking at a batting practice pitcher, who has a 12.4% strikeout rate, an 11.6% walk rate and a combined .407 wOBA and .228 ISO allowed to the last 225 hitters he has faced.
Pretty much anyone on the Cincinnati lineup card is in play, with Elly De La Cruz, Austin Hays, Spencer Steer, Gavin Lux, Will Benson, TJ Freidl, Matt McLain, Noelvi Martinez and Tyler Stephenson being the preferred order of preference, based on price, positional eligibility and projected production.
It is going to be hot and humid in Baltimore, which should turn Camden Yards into a launching pad. The Orioles are facing RHP Janson Junk, who mitigates a 57% hard hit rate, by having hitters just miss getting good wood on the ball with a 6.6% barrel rate. That will only last for so long and with the top eight in the lineup averaging nearly a .200 ISO against righties this season, things could go south quickly for Junk.
The usual suspects are in play for the Brew Crew as Milwaukee gets a delightful matchup against rookie LHP Shinnosuke Ogasawara. Reviews for Ogasawara give him adequate ratings for his fastball, and while he has good control on his slider, changeup and knuckle curve, none are expected to be particularly effective for long stretches in The Show. Jackson Chourio and Isaac Collins are fun one-offs and former Chicago White Sox slugger Andrew Vaughn has hits in each of his first four games with the Brewers, including two home runs.
Main Slate Primary Target: Toronto Blue Jays
Look to the top of the order with George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. being the most accomplished hitters against lefties, along with likely leadoff man Ernie Clement as the punt du jour. Bo Bichette is out of his multi-season slump and while he is slowly regaining trust of the DFS world, do not overlook the two-time All-Star, who actually received MVP votes in the 2021, 2022 and 2023 seasons.
Alejandro Kirk is a great way to fulfill the backstop requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo, while Davis Schneider is another solid discount dandy, who can also be used as a one-off. Long relievers Osvaldo Bido (49 pitches), Hogan Harris (56 pitches), Sean Newcomb (20 pitches) and JT Ginn (26 pitches) have each seen work in the last three days, though Newcomb and Ginn have had 48 hours, so they could be available tonight. The A’s bullpen is one of the most worked in the league and one of the least effective, so there is no saving the day once Lopez hits the clubhouse.
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