MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
The Blue Jays are in the middle of the pack with a .144 ISO, though their 107 wRC+ indicates that they are creating runs 7% more efficiently than league average, which is also the eighth best mark for the season. The projected lineup for Toronto has a 19.3% strikeout rate against lefties since the start of last year, with only Davis Schneider (33.7%, 202 plate appearances) and Leo Jimenez (35.1%, 77 PAs) profiling as easy marks for Fried.
This year, Fried made All-Star Game for the third time in the last four seasons, which should have the Yankees happy with their new frontline starter, since he also leads the league with 11 wins. The 31-year-old collects just under a strikeout per inning, though he has been sublime at limiting home runs and he is in the top-20 with his efficiency, closing out innings with an average of 15.66 pitches.
In a wild twist, as well as being Example No. 1,487 of baseball being baseball, LHP Patrick Corbin has actually allowed only 14 home runs this season. That has allowed the 36-year-old to hand the baton to Jose Berrios, who has allowed 101 round-trippers since the start of the 2022 season, compared to 99 for Corbin. He still has logged 68.2 fewer innings, but shaking off this mantle is a milestone. There is even a chance that fellow Old, Miles Mikolas could pass him as well by the end of the season, with the St. Louis innings eater only five longballs behind.
This is the lowest home run rate for Corbin, since 2019 when he was with the Washington Nationals for their World Series run. The Athletics still have plenty of right-handed power, though the team is not as fierce on the road, as they are in West Sacramento. The main appeal for Corbin as as an SP2 on DraftKings ($7,500) and Yahoo ($29), though he can be considered a discount dandy on FanDuel ($7,800) as well, for those not enthralled by Fried.
Another option tonight is LHP Jesus Luzardo, against a Boston squad that has scored more than two runs only twice in the last seven games, with 15 total runs in this timeframe. The 27-year-old southpaw has terrific strikeout stuff, though there have also been issues with him tipping pitches, which has resulted in some rough outings. Since tweaking things after he allowed 20 runs in 5.2 innings in a two game stretch at the end of May, Luzardo has ceded one, four, zero, two, five, zero and four “Ernies.”
Since his demolishment of the Colorado Rockies on Jun. 14 when the 26-year-old racked up 13 strikeouts, he has 12.23 strikeouts per nine innings in seven starts, spanning 42.2 frames. He has compiled a 2.53 ERA, 2.41 FIP and 2.62 xFIP, despite an elevated .290 batting average on balls in play. Strider may never get back to the trajectory he was on prior to his elbow injury, but he is still a top-20 starter and could easily work his way back into the top-10.
The projected San Francisco lineup has a 22.1 strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, though Rafael Devers (25.3%, 292 plate appearances), Willy Adames (25.4%, 307 PAs), Matt Chapman (25.8%, 246 PAs) and switch-hitting catcher Patrick Bailey (29.6%, 189 PAs) all present opportunities for Strider to weave his magic at the plate.
Though his performance has been uneven this season, LHP Nick Lodolo seems to finally be on the right path. Injuries have knocked the 27-year-old off kilter, though if things go well in Wednesday’s start, he will reach a career-high in MLB innings for a season this afternoon and his next through the rotation should have him at a career-high for combined innings in any campaign, including his time in the minors.
The Guardians gobsmacked Lodolo in Cleveland seven starts ago, cruising to six runs in just 3.1 innings, though they also struck out six times. In the half dozen subsequent starts, the former seventh-overall selection in the 2019 MLB Draft has been phenomenal with 34 strikeouts in 34.2 innings, accompanied by seven walks. While he gives up round-trippers, it is important to keep in mind he plays around half his games homer friendly Great American Ballpark.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Tampa Bay Rays
To his credit, RHP Jonathan Cannon has allowed only one home run in his last four games, with six earned runs in these 20.1 innings. However, he has also handed out nine free passes, with only a dozen strikeouts during this stretch. The 24-year-old was a modest prospect for the ChiSox and considering his age, there is not much untapped upside.
Brandon Lowe (foot/ankle) is once again on the injured list and Ha-Seong Kim (back) is considered day-to-day. Though that takes away some depth, the Rays still have nice stacking potential. Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero and Josh Lowe all have elite power against righties and each has been locked in over the last 30 days. Yandy Diaz is the straw that stirs the drink, getting on base and of course moving runners along. Speaking of runners, Chandler Simpson had three stolen bases, giving him 30 on the season. That is only two thefts behind teammate and league leader Jose Caballero (32), despite Simpson having spent most of June in the minors, working on his swing.
FanDuel and DraftKings are including the 6:40 p.m. ET game in Cleveland, with the Guardians facing the Baltimore Orioles and RHP Zach Eflin, who is expected to return from the injured list. Eflin has been out for the last three weeks with a sore lower back, though he did make two rehabilitation starts in the minors. Across his final three appearances before succumbing to the ailment, he was hammered for 17 runs in nine innings, including half a dozen home runs.
After suffering a 10-game losing streak, the Guardians have won 10 of 12 games, with at least six runs in eight of these matchups. Jose Ramirez and Kyle Manzardo are the primary targets, with first-time All-Star Steven Kwan (wrist) also a strong option, assuming he is in the lineup. Daniel Schneemann is the punt du jour on both DraftKings ($3,100) and FanDuel ($2,600), aided by his multi-positional eligibility.
Early Slate Target: San Diego Padres
The 2022 National League Cy Young Award winner missed the 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and things have been epically horrendous this year. IN his last four starts, he has issued only five walks and surrendered a trio of tater, though in these 23 innings, he has allowed 22 runs, with only 14 strikeouts. The velocity is only a tick down from his Cy Young season, with his fastball still sitting in the 96-to-97 mph range.
It is fair to say that the 29-year-old has had some bad luck, with a .302 batting average on balls in play, plus an almost impossibly low 54.8% strand rate. Even though his 5.10 xERA, 4.66 FIP and 4.51 xFIP are better than his 7.14 ERA, after Wednesday’s start he will be at 100-plus innings in 20 outings. That is a pretty large dataset and hard to find a way to perfume the proverbial pig.
Lefty power has been the main issue for Alcantara, which pushes Gavin Sheets, Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth to the forefront of San Diego stacks. Fernando Tatis Jr. is elite in same-handed matchups, with Manny Machado and three-time batting champion Luis Arraez continuing to chug along.
Temperatures will be approaching 90 degrees this afternoon at Wrigley Field, where the Kansas City Royals and Chicago Cubs are wrapping up their series. There is also a 10-to-12 mph breeze out to left field, which is contributing to the 11 run implied total. Veteran RHPs Seth Lugo and Colin Rea are good at preventing runs, but they may not be able to stem the tide this afternoon.
The Mets are at home against LHP Brock Burke who is leading off a bullpen game for the Los Angeles Angels. RHP Jake Eder is the leading candidate for the “bulk” innings, having last logged 62 pitches on Friday. RHP Sam Bachman also has had 72 hours off, though he rarely goes multiple innings. Francisco Lindor has been held hitless in his last 28 plate appearances, across five games. The switch-hitter is too good for this to continue and he is a strong play this afternoon. After Burke hits the clubhouse, Brandon Nimmo, Juan Soto and Jeff McNeil should have the platoon-advantage for most of the game and of course masher Pete Alonso is a terrific foundational building block for New York attacks.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take a bet like Tyler Glasnow to record fewer than 6.5 strikeouts this afternoon. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet — meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. And with Portfolio EV, you’re not relying on one-off picks. You’re stacking dozens — even hundreds — of +EV wagers at scale using the Mass Entry tool, turning small edges into long-term profit.
Considering how many injuries have beset the Los Angeles pitching corpse this season, it is reasonable to believe that Glasnow is likely on a soft-cap of around 85-to-90 throws. He projects for 6.3 strikeouts, which is clearly above the six needed for this under to fail, though that does not account for the variable range of outcomes. Most books are offering the under on 6.5 strikeouts at -103 to +110, which makes the +135 quite appealing.
