MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
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MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
In this stretch, he was unlucky with a 5.72 ERA as compared to his 4.22 FIP and 3.95 xFIP. The 19 walks in 28.1 frames are concerning, though that was offset by a whopping 39 strikeouts for 12.39 per nine innings.
Surprisingly, Cease ceded just four home runs and seven total extra-base hits in this timeframe. It truly was the walks that created some inefficiency, eating into his 91.3 average pitches in these tilts.
The competition was tough with five of the games against playoff contenders, and tonight’s matchup is against a Baltimore squad that has been much better against right-handed hurlers.
Of course, the Orioles are without Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, Tyler O’Neill, Jorge Mateo and Gary Sanchez, who are all on the injured list. The team also dealt away more depth at the trade deadline with Cedric Mullins going to the Mets, while Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Laureano landed on the Padres.
Looking at OddsShopper, we can see that Cease has a -150 odds on over 7.5 strikeouts at most books, which is just ridiculous. The projected lineup for the O’s has a 25.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and Cease has posted a 30.0% combined rate, ticking just up from his tremendous 29.1% rate last year.
The next best option is muddled with RHPs Shane Baz and Luis Castillo squaring off at Steinbrenner Field as the Tampa Bay Rays host the scuffling Seattle Mariners. It is going to be in the mid-80s at first pitch with humidity in the 65% to 75% range, which bodes well for the bats. RHP Kyle Bradish is making his second start since returning from Tommy John surgery, though he has a tough matchup against the Padres. In the nightcap, the Chase Field roof is scheduled to be closed, but that is unlikely to be enough to save former Diamondback ace LHP Patrick Corbin versus his former squad. On the other side of that matchup, RHP Ryne Nelson is probably the preferred option among these candidates, considering that Texas is without Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Evan Carter, Jake Burger and Sam Haggerty.
It is important to keep in mind that the Athletics have power that travels well, with the current active roster boasting a .208 ISO on the road, which is a tick above the .206 ISO for the Yankees, leading the league. There are plenty of strikeouts in the projected lineup with five hitters carrying a 23.8% or higher strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers this season.
RHP Sonny Gray has been mostly splits-neutral over the last two seasons, allowing his fair share of power with a .166 ISO but also backed by a 28.4% strikeout and 43.5% ground ball rate across 1,302 batters faced in this period.
RHP Luis Garcia is slated to start for Houston tonight, having spent six-plus weeks in the minors, ramping up after Tommy John surgery. In his last three outings, he had 77, 84 and 75 pitches, so the late-blooming frontline starter should be good for five innings. Taylor Ward is unlikely to play today, having run into the outfield wall on Sunday, which required stitches above his right eye. Nolan Schanuel and Jorge Soler are both on the injured list, and that thins out the Los Angeles options. The projected lineup for the Angels has a 26.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and while the team has power at the top of the order, the bottom of the lineup card is ripe for a three-up, three-down inning.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Tampa Bay Rays
The name recognition of RHP Luis Castillo, along with decent season figures, is likely to have Tampa slightly underrepresented in tournaments. August was not a good month for Castillo, who allowed a 6.66 ERA across five starts, spanning 24.1 innings. He had eight longballs in this stretch, with 17 total extra-base hits. This is a striking contrast to July, when he was sublime with a 2.05 ERA and no home runs allowed in five starts.
Fly balls (31.2%) have been the bane of Castillo’s existence over the last month, exacerbated by a 60.1% hard-hit rate. Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Junior Caminero and Josh Lowe are the core four Rays tonight.
Seattle also is a strong stacking option with RHP Shane Baz in poor form as well. Most of his damage was done two starts ago, when the New York Yankees got him for five home runs in their spring training venue. Still, if we look back seven games, which includes the White Sox posting eight runs against the 26-year-old, we see an 8.47 ERA, 5.36 FIP and 3.72 xFIP. While four of the games were on the road, they include outings at Great American SMALLpark and Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento. Even granting a little grace for the variables, this is a pretty awful stat line.
Quick notes on Corbin, he too melted down in July with a 7.17 ERA in five starts, failing to close out the fourth inning in three tilts, leaving him with only 21.1 innings in July. Somehow he managed to hold the righty-heavy Angels scoreless for eight innings last Tuesday, though that was the aberration for this stretch of play.
Randy Arozarena is likely to lead off against his former team, backed by MVP candidate Cal Raleigh, trade acquisitions Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor, along with well-rounded Julio Rodriguez and a resurgent Jorge Polanco.
Main Slate Tertiary Target: Minnesota Twins
Expectations are that RHP Bryse Wilson will either start this afternoon for Chicago or serve as the bulk reliever against Minnesota. RHP Aaron Civale was slated to go, though the Chicago Cubs claimed him off waivers yesterday. This season, Wilson made 19 appearances for the ChiSox, including five starts. Across these 45.1 innings, he posted a 6.95 ERA and a 1.897 WHIP, while his 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings were fewer than his 2.2 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine combined.
In his demotion to Triple-A, Wilson split time as a multi-inning reliever and starter, with mediocre results in both roles. The one-time Atlanta prospect has never found his footing, having played for Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and now Chicago over the last three seasons.
The Twins are teeming with power at the top of the order, and Byron Buxton, Luke Keaschall, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner and Kody Clemens are the most desirable bats to target. The three lefties in the Pale Hose bullpen have each seen action in the last 48 hours, though one could serve as an opener or there could be a September callup getting that chance just to make things tougher on Wallner and Larnach. However, Wallner seems to have worked through his left-on-lefty challenges.
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Refsnyder is always a pinch-hit risk if a right-handed reliever comes into the game, though that is not always automatic. He is facing rookie LHP Parker Messick, who is the fourth overall prospect for Cleveland, sliding just inside the late-season top-50 prospect ranks across the league. Messick has a decent fastball, though it is his curve and slider that give him an edge as a southpaw, along with a solid changeup. This will be Messick’s third start, and he has yet to suffer a home run in his 13.1 big league innings.
