MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
In his first season with the Phillies, Luzardo has been better on the road, recording ample strikeouts regardless of the venue. Since giving up 20 runs in 5.2 combined innings against Milwaukee and in Toronto (aka the pitch-tipping games), the soon-to-be 28-year-old has changed his glove and approach, making eight appearances and striking out 53 in 41.1 innings while allowing only four home runs.
The 19 walks in this timeframe definitely need improvement, but his 4.79 ERA shows he has been somewhat unlucky in this stretch, with a 3.16 FIP and 3.20 xFIP. Take solace in his 27.6% strikeout rate, which is well above his 20.8% last year, though not unprecedented, as he was in that vicinity in both 2022 and 2023 while with the Miami Marlins.
It looks like St. Louis understands that even if the team were to turn things around after sputtering to a 6-9 record over the last 15 games, the pitching staff is in no way ready for the postseason. Erick Fedde was just traded, and it would not be a surprise to see if there are any takers for Miles Mikolas for a bag of slightly used baseballs, or potentially Steven Matz or Phil Maton out of the bullpen.
Gray has appeared in a bunch of “potential trades” articles, though he has indicated he is not willing to waive his no trade clause and would prefer to stay with the Redbirds. That does not have a lot of impact on tonight’s action, but it is worth noting that he is not looking to jump ship to a more feasible contender.
The Marlins projected lineup has several youngsters who have proven capable against right-handed hurlers, and overall the team does not proffer a lot of strikeouts. Jesus Sanchez, Otto Lopez, along with rookies Agustin Ramirez and Heriberto Hernandez, are far from easy outs.
It is the bottom of the lineup card where Gray will need to earn his DFS points against Eric Wagaman, Graham Pauley and Dane Myers.
For those not feeling the love for Gray, RHP Justin Verlander is a potential SP2 in San Francisco against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates. The 42-year-old has had both good and bad moments, though this matchup, venue and weather are in his favor, as is the $7,200 salary on DraftKings.
In Anaheim, LHP Yusei Kikuchi will be facing Texas for the third time this season, having held his own with 13 baserunners, a 4.09 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 10 strikeouts in 11 innings. Fellow lefty and starting pitcher for the Rangers, Patrick Corbin, has faced the righty-heavy Angels twice, more than holding his own with a 2.61 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 12 strikeouts in 10.1 innings.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Seattle Mariners
Veteran RHP Luis Severino has been awful at Sutter Health Park, and he has been clear for a while that he would like to be traded pretty much anywhere else, bringing along the rest of the three-year, $67 million deal that the Athletics gave him this offseason. In his 66 innings in the Sacramento River Cats Triple-A ballpark, the erstwhile ace suffered a 6.68 ERA while allowing a .302/.367/.462 triple-slash line, making opposing offenses look like All-Star squads.
In 2023 and 2024, across 271.1 combined innings, Severino had a palatable 7.96 strikeouts per nine innings. This year that has slipped to 6.61 per nine, including 7.5 per nine in his new home park. He is not afraid to challenge hitters, and that is part of the problem, with his 50.9% hard-hit rate well above his 41.4% last season.
Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez and new first baseman Josh Naylor are the core four from the Mariners. Switch-hitter Jorge Polanco has been working at an All-Star level from the left side of the plate, while Dominic Canzone and his light-tower power make for a nice, discounted differentiation option.
For the A’s, Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler and catcher Shea Langeliers are the preferred order of preference, accounting for price, positional eligibility, projection and popularity.
Main Slate Alternate Target: Kansas City Royals
DFS gamers are well aware of Fedde’s temporary reinvention during the 2023 season in the KBO after he washed out with the Nationals. Velocity was never really part of his makeup, and it seems that the league has caught up to his revised sweeper and unique split-finger changeup. Atlanta is going to try to limp along with Fedde and Carlos Carrasco, whom it just brought over from the Yankees after Grant Holmes landed on the injured list and Spencer Schwellenbach (fractured right elbow) and AJ Smith-Shawver (Tommy John surgery) went out for the season. Chris Sale has begun to play long-toss, but he still is likely to be out for another month with his fractured left rib cage.
Fedde is putting up some of the worst peripherals of his career, and his 5.22 ERA has actually been lucky, compared to his 5.79 xERA. Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez and Maikel Garcia are the core four to target from the Royals, with Jonathan India and recently added outfielder Randal Grichuk tertiary targets.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like Jason Alexander under 5.5 hits allowed tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates!
The Athletics were this year’s team, but they released him after four dreadful appearances. That gets us current with the Houston Astros claiming him off waivers in mid-May and building him up in Triple-A so he could be a starter, getting a couple of chances so far, which have been less than stellar.
The hope for this wager is that Alexander gets knocked out of the game early by the top of the order or otherwise struggles to close out more than a handful of frames, with the Nationals getting some baserunners via walks instead of hits.
