MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Which Cy Young Candidate to Choose?! (July 6)

Sunday brings a plethora of pitchers toeing the rubber across the various slates posted by DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As we review the MLB DFS picks for today, leveraging Stokastic’s MLB DFS Sims optimizer and MLB DFS projections is the smartest way to uncover value. Whether you’re building the best MLB DFS stacks today, locking in top pitchers or rounding out your roster with high-upside value plays, using data-backed tools is key.

According to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees are the priority stacks for the main slate. This afternoon, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks stand out as the teams to target. On the pitching front, there are Cy Young candidates on every slate, with Garrett Crochet and Paul Skenes having the best fantasy point-per-dollar ratios among the superstars.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers

Washington is a below-average offense against lefties, which plays into the strength of RHP Garrett Crochet, who is vying with RHP Hunter Brown in trying to catch reigning Cy Young Award winner LHP Tarik Skubal for the honors this season. The 26-year-old has been sublime with a 2.34 ERA, supported by a 2.96 xERA, 2.55 FIP and 2.71 xFIP. He has a wicked 31.4% strikeout rate this season, and while that is down from his 35.1% rate last year, keep in mind that the Chicago White Sox were in asset-protection mode, not letting Crochet log more than four innings in any start from July through the rest of the season.

Looking at the projected lineup for the Nationals, six hitters are striking out above league average against southpaws over the last season-plus. Nathaniel Lowe (29.9%, 251 plate appearances), Paul DeJong (38.7%, 137 PAs), Riley Adams (34.4%, 90 PAs) and rookie Brady House (50.0%, 16 PAs) form an actual wind farm, which is perfect for Crochet to knit together a good start.

Skubal is at $12,000 on DraftKings, which is a massive premium when compared to Crochet. This duo carries essentially the same salary cap hit on FanDuel ($11,000) and Yahoo ($60). Cleveland’s projected lineup has five batsmen who have struck out at a 26% or higher clip against lefties since the start of last year.

In Philadelphia, RHP Zack Wheeler will be facing the Cincinnati Reds, though his best salary is on DraftKings ($10,000) since he is $60 on Yahoo and $10,800 on FanDuel. The Yankees are in Citi Field facing the Mets, which makes it hard to be excited for LHP Max Fried with so many aces on the docket.

Washington has called up LHP Shinnosuke Ogasawara, who signed this offseason to a two-year, $3.5 million deal. He had a strong prep career and has spent the last seven seasons starting for the Chunichi Dragons in the NPB. The 27-year-old missed almost two months with an oblique injury, but he had three rehabilitation starts, working his way up to 64 pitches. Something in the 60 to 65 range is realistic today, which has him in play at the minimum $4,000 salary on DraftKings.

The 2024 National League Rookie of the Year finished third in the Cy Young race and also was on enough ballots to rank 19th in the MVP vote. The Mariners are a pesky lineup, but the bottom of the order lacks power and contact, with rookies Ben Williamson and Cole Young definitely in trouble for this matchup.

Kirby missed the first two months of the season, though he has eight starts under his belt and he should be good for 90 to 95 pitches this afternoon.

One month ago, Kirby racked up an impressive 14 strikeouts against the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim. However, he has just 16 whiffs in his last four appearances, spanning 22 innings.

Things are tricky after this duo, with RHP Anthony DeSclafani getting a spot start for Arizona against the Kansas City Royals. “Disco Stu” is now 35 years old, and he missed last year due to an elbow injury. Expectations are that he will be good for around 70 to 75 pitches as he has been ramping up with four relief outings.

In Los Angeles, RHP Emmet Sheehan will be making his second spot start of the season, having been honing his skills at Triple-A. He missed all of 2024 recovering from elbow surgery, though prior to that he was on track to be a multi-inning reliever or swingman.

Over his last five starts, including one against the San Diego Padres, Sheehan averaged just over 63 pitches, so expect him to be good for around 70 or so this afternoon. Rookie LHP Colton Gordon has a tough assignment against the Dodgers, while veteran RHP Michael Lorenzen is the other option in Arizona with the Diamondbacks getting Corbin Carroll back from the injured list.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks

Main Slate Alternative Target: Boston Red Sox

Scouting reports for Ogasawara give him decent marks for his fastball, and while he has solid control on his slider, changeup and knuckle curve, none are expected to be particularly intimidating to big league batters. The 27-year-old may be able to hold his own against rookies Nate Eaton, Roman Anthony and Carlos Narvaez, leveraging deception, but veterans Rob Refsnyder, Trevor Story, Connor Wong, Abraham Toro and Jarren Duran are less likely to be fooled easily.

For FanDuel and Yahoo, both sides of the Coors Field Extravaganza are desirable, with rookie RHPs Shane Smith and Chase Dollander leading the White Sox and Rockies. Lefties for each offense will be the priority, but anyone who is on the lineup card to start the game is in play.

The Phillies profile well against rookie RHP Chase Burns, who followed up his eight-strikeout debut with a one-out meltdown where he allowed seven runs on five hits and two walks to the Red Sox in Boston. He is the top prospect for Cincinnati, though the team has decided to give him on the job training after he was the second selection in last year’s draft following four years at Purdue. The 22-year-old has great stuff, but with just two Triple-A starts prior to his call-up, he needs more experience.

In the Subway Series, the Yankees are in Queens against RHP Chris Devenski, who is likely to be followed by LHP Brandon Waddell as the bulk reliever for however long 50 to 60 pitches takes him.

Stokastic’s MLB DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a game-changing tool that transforms lineup construction through powerful, data-driven simulations — essential for serious DFS players. See how the Simulator analyzes this single lineup for this sample MLB DFS slate:

Late Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks

Corbin Carroll (wrist) is off the injured list, and while he was 0-for-5 last night, he did hid have two walks, plus an intentional walk in his lone rehab start. It was expected for Carroll to be out until August with a chip fracture in his left wrist, but he showed enough progress that the team elected to bring him back. Time will tell if this was a savvy move or one of desperation, with the team having lost seven of nine games prior to Saturday’s victory.

Ketel Marte, Pavin Smith and Josh Naylor all profile well in opposite-handed matchups, and Lorenzen has had trouble against lefties this season, allowing a .199 ISO across 206 batters faced. Righties have been even better with a .238 ISO, which bodes well for the red-hot Eugenio Suarez and capable veteran Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Kansas City did use four relievers yesterday, including lefties Daniel Lynch and Sam Long for a second consecutive game. That leaves Angel Zerpa as the lone fresh southpaw, though righties Lucas Erceg and Steven Cruz, along with closer Carlos Estevez, are rested as well.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like Joe Ryan under 5.5 strikeouts. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet — meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. And with Portfolio EV, you’re not relying on one-off picks. You’re stacking dozens — even hundreds — of +EV wagers at scale using the Mass Entry tool, turning small edges into long-term profit.

Just like one DFS lineup won’t win you a GPP, one smart bet doesn’t build a bankroll. But a consistent process does. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks. It’s about making smart, data-backed decisions every day and letting the math do the heavy lifting.

Ryan projects for a tick over six strikeouts, but that median expectation does not account for the variable range of outcomes. Since the start of last year, the projected Tampa lineup has an 18.4% strikeout rate against righties, with lefties Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe and backup catcher Matt Thaiss being the most likely candidates for whiffs. This has been a good year for Ryan, who has improved his combined strikeout rate from 27.3% to 28.1%, though he has been below average against hitters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate, with a 21.6% K rate. This wager is a stay-away at anything below +110.