MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
The Angels struck out 76 times in the last five games, with the righties in the Seattle rotation also making hay. Woodruff missed nearly two years after needed shoulder surgery, dealing with a couple of different setbacks during his recovery. He last pitched on Sep. 6 as the team elected to push back his last scheduled start a couple days for rest purposes. This makes sense since the Brewers are looking to make a deep postseason run and they have the best record in baseball, looking to hold off Philadelphia (1.5 games) and Chicago (five games) in the National League.
Woodruff recorded 94, 97, 89 and 85 pitches in his last four starts, though he was pulled with only one out in the fourth inning in the first and third games in this stretch. He cruised to six shutout innings in Pittsburgh in his last appearance, collecting eight strikeouts. Tonight, if he follows a similar path as the last five right-handed starters against Los Angeles, he should close out the fifth inning and have the strikeout upside, plus the backing of the Brew Crew offense, to post a strong DFS score.
There are several other frontline starters toeing the rubber this evening, though none of them have particularly appealing matchups. Lefties Jesus Luzardo and Blake Snell are squaring off in Los Angeles. However, they are going against two of the top offenses in the Phillies and Dodgers.
In New York, LHP David Peterson and the Mets are hosting the San Diego Padres. Peterson is a mid-tier option, though his recent form has been dodgy. Across his last seven appearances, his ERA increased from 2.83 to 3.77.
The 7.13 ERA is abysmal, but his 3.26 FIP and 3.20 xFIP do indicate substantial bad luck, as evidenced by his .388 batting average on balls in play and a very low 55.8% left-on-base rate.
Peterson celebrated his 30th birthday this weekend, and the late-bloomer still has been collecting plenty of strikeouts, with 43 in his 35.1 most recent innings. The projected lineup for the Padres has a slim .111 ISO against southpaws this season. However, these hitters also have a collective 15.1% strikeout rate, which does not help the DFS projections for Peterson.
In Houston RHP Jacob deGrom will be trying to close the gap against the Astros. Texas lost last night, and the Rangers are now 3.5 games behind Boston for the final wild card slot and four games behind the ‘Stros. There is an outside chance for Texas to catch the Seattle Mariners, who have a 4.5-game lead for the AL West, though that means besting Houston in this series and then hoping the M’s and Astros trade blows over the weekend while the Rangers gain ground against both teams.
The 37-year-old has been excellent this season, and though he is no longer at his apex powers, deGrom is still a top-20 pitcher game in and game out. Houston is without Isaac Paredes and Yordan Alvarez, but the lineup still has talent with Jose Altuve, Christian Walker and Jeremy Pena. The addition of Jesus Sanchez and Carlos Correa via trades and the callup of toolsy, though underdeveloped prospect Zach Cole also give the Astros more chances to survive against deGrom.
Tonight there is no obvious SP2, which does add to the fun for DFS tournament decisions. On DraftKings, RHPs Cristian Javier ($6,500) and Luis Gil are cheap tournament fliers against Texas and in Minnesota against the Twins.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: New York Yankees
The results have been all over the place this season for RHP Taj Bradley. Last year he was solid, and it looked like he would level up. However, a lack of consistent strikeouts and potentially the venue change from Tropicana Field to Steinbrenner Field exacerbated the cracks in his skillset. Ultimately, Tampa sent him down to Triple-A before trading him to the Minnesota Twins, who kept him with Triple-A St. Paul for three more starts.
Through a scheduling quirk, his last start i, The Show for Tampa was against the Chicago White Sox, who he has now faced twice with Minnesota. In his last five big league games, he had a 7.43 ERA, a 5.06 FIP and a 5.01 xFIP, accompanied by a lackluster 7.43 strikeouts per nine, which are in line with his full-season rate. The 24-year-old had a strong 26.5% combined strikeout rate last season, cratering to a 20.3% rate this year. One silver lining in a sky filled with storm clouds is an improvement against same-handed hitters, limiting power with a .120 ISO as compared to a .171 ISO last year.
Of course, that is not going to save him against the likes of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, who will be interspersed with left-handed boppers Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Cody Bellinger and Ryan McMahon.
Keep tabs on the forecast as there is a chance for rain tonight, though the current modeling has the system missing Minneapolis.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Seattle Mariners
Seattle cruised to a 10th consecutive victory last night as catcher Cal Raleigh tied Ken Griffey Jr. for the team record with his 55th and 56th home runs. Dominic Canzone had a trio of taters himself, which set the tone for the 12-5 victory.
The Mariners project to account for around 5% of all stacks tonight, which gives them tournament appeal. Canzone, of course, only starts against right-handed hurlers, so he will likely give way to Victor Robles. Focusing on the right-handed batsmen is key, along with switch-hitters in Raleigh and Jorge Polanco. Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez and Randy Arozarena round out the core options.
Kansas City also is in play as an overlooked option against RHP Bryce Miller. Yes, Miller is coming off a career-high 11 strikeouts, though that was against the Angels. He also allowed four earned runs and a pair of round-trippers, having now surrendered home runs in nine straight starts. In this stretch, he allowed a 7.00 ERA, a 6.34 FIP and 4.63 xFIP. These outings surround a trip to the injured list due to elbow discomfort, with offseason surgery required to clean up floating bone fragments that have plagued him all year.
Look to the top of the order for Kansas City, where Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Miguel Garcia, Mike Yastrzemski and Salvador Perez are the most desirable options. Looking to duos or trios from both teams should provide plenty of differentiation for lineups centered around the Yankees or the Coors Field Extravaganza.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like Ryan McMahon to hit a home run tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
Home runs are fickle, but it is crazy to not shop for the best odds, as these can be a sucker’s bet when comparing you the best and the worst lines available. Keep in mind that McMahon was hitting in the heart of the order for Colorado before being traded to the Yankees. He is able to hide in the bottom third of the lineup, typically getting better pitches than the awesome gauntlet before him.
