MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
The Angels do have a fair amount of power against right-handed hurlers, as the projected lineup boasts a .193 ISO this season. Of course, the team also has a hefty 24.6% strikeout rate, with only Nolan Schanuel, Luis Rengifo and Gustavo Campero below league average.
Yamamoto had 21-plus DraftKings points in six of his last seven starts, and his lone misstep was a two-out showing in Milwaukee where he allowed three earned runs and five runs in total. In the other outings combined, he also ceded five runs, with three being earned, across 36.2 innings. Enjoy!
Other bucks deluxe candidates including RHP Nathan Eovaldi against a frisky Arizona lineup that has been posting runs, despite trading Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor and Randal Grichuk. LHP Garrett Crochet is a Cy Young Award frontrunner, though he is in Houston and the Astros are well equipped to take on southpaws.
Finally, there is RHP Logan Webb in San Francisco against the San Diego Padres. While we do not want to hang our hats on batter vs. pitcher data, several Padres have had strong personal success against the ground ball artist, including Luis Arraez, Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, Jackson Merrill, Gavin Sheets and Manny Machado. Basically, Ramon Laureano, Fernando Tatis Jr. and catcher Elias Diaz are the only projected starters who have scuffled against Webb.
RHP Will Warren is in Yankee Stadium with the backing of the New York offense. He has been excellent against fellow righties, though he is still figuring out his strategic approach for handling lefties. Minnesota is running out the string on the season, but the team could give Warren potential fits with six or seven lefties on the lineup card.
LHP Bailey Falter is a wild card in a great matchup against the Washington Nationals, who struggle against southpaws. Of course, Falter reached double-digit fantasy points only once in his last five starts, including a negative meltdown in his Kansas City debut.
RHP Miles Mikolas has been better than Falter, though he lacks the strikeout appeal of Warren, even with the rookie having a tougher matchup. The Colorado Rockies are projected for a scant 3.6 runs, and Mikolas should be in the game long enough to be eligible for the win with St. Louis a -220 home favorite.
RHP Cristian Javier is just $30 on Yahoo, though his $8,300 salary on DraftKings is a lot to pay for his first start back from Tommy John surgery, and RHP Chris Paddack in Chicago against the White Sox is a better value at $6,800.
The most “trustworthy” salary saver is LHP Jose Quintana in Milwaukee against a Pittsburgh Pirates crew that has very few intimidating batsmen. While Quintana does not create an abundance of strikeouts, he does a solid job of preventing runs and he usually works into the sixth inning, giving him a chance at the win bonus. Seven hitters in the projected Pittsburgh lineup have an above-average strikeout rate against southpaws, which should help Quintana make a little magic at the plate.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Kansas City Royals
This will be the third MLB appearance for RHP Cade Cavalli, who turns 27 years old this week. He was selected with the 22nd overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft. Between the pandemic-canceled season, shoulder inflammation, Tommy John surgery, a lengthy illness and “dead arm” during his rehabilitation, Cavalli has logged only 311.2 innings as a professional.
Prior to his injuries, he raced through the minors in 2021, reaching Triple-A and recording a 102 mph pitch in the Futures Game. After his various maladies, he has settled into the 94 to 96 mph range, though there is not much movement on his fastball, which, of course, is problematic against big league hitters. He has a decent curveball, but that may not be enough to push him beyond being a multi-inning reliever/spot starter.
Kansas City improved greatly with the addition of Randal Grichuk and Mike Yastrzemski, helping to lengthen the lineup. Bobby Witt Jr. got a break on Sunday, so he should be refreshed and back to the grind tonight. Veteran Salvador Perez and young slugger Vinnie Pasquantino have formed a strong righty-lefty combination in the heart of the order against right-handed pitching, with infielder Maikel Garcia making great strides versus fellow righties this season.
For stacking purposes, the top 6 are all in play, creating options at a variety of positions and salary levels. There is not a lot of power at the bottom of the lineup card, though Jonathan India, Nick Loftin and Kyle Isbel are all patient hitters who put the ball in play and should be able to avoid three-up, three-down innings, which helps set the table when the lineup flips over.
Late Slate Primary Target: Athletics
Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero profile well against Springs, but the rest of the projected lineup is shaky at best. It is going to be in the mid-80s tonight with an 8 to 12 mph breeze out to centerfield in West Sacramento, which helps turn this venue into one of the most offense-friendly environments in the league.
It is easier to get behind the Athletics, even though RHP Ryan Pepiot is a solid pitcher. The former Los Angeles Dodger has put together two nice seasons in the Tampa rotation. The soon-to-be 28-year-old is at a career-high 136 innings, already surpassing his prior mark of 130 innings last year. He has looked rough over the last four starts since the All-Star Break, allowing 17 runs, six round-trippers and 10 free passes in 21.2 innings. The 24 strikeouts are solid, but with the power bats in the A’s lineup, this is a rough matchup.
Tyler Soderstrom, rookie Nick Kurtz, catcher Shea Langeliers, and outfielders Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker are the foundational plays for any stacks, with each being a fine one-off as well. JJ Bleday is a potential punt play on DraftKings ($3,700) and FanDuel ($2,600) if he is in the lineup.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Tails By OddsShopper shines.
Take a bet like Cristian Javier to record fewer than 4.5 strikeouts tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
The only BoSox who have an above-average strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers are Trevor Story (29.0%), Wilyer Abreu (25.2%) and catcher Carlos Narvaez (25.9%). Most books are offering under 4.5 strikeouts between -150 and -160, which is around a 7% negative expected ROI. That is what makes the -118 on Novig a reasonable bet if you are of the belief that Javier is not going to be pushed too hard tonight.
