MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Baltimore is going through the motions at this point, working through many injuries in addition to a trade-depleted lineup. Plucky infielder Jeremiah Jackson left last night’s game after being hit in the elbow by a pitch, and he is considered day-to-day.
In Los Angeles, the Dodgers are wrapping up a three-game series against the Rockies, so we are seeing their starting pitcher recommended for the third consecutive night.
RHPs Tyler Glasnow and Emmett Sheehan took care of business on Monday and Tuesday, with LHP Blake Snell providing a nice dichotomy of looks on the mound tonight.
The Rockies have been abysmal by pretty much every standard and advanced metric across most offensive, defensive and pitching categories. On the road against lefties this season, the Rox have a 72 wRC+, which is the second worst in the league.
Weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes variables such as park factor, creating a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100. This means that Colorado is producing runs 28% less efficiently than league average against lefties.
Snell had a bit of a hiccup in his last outing in Pittsburgh, with the Pirates putting up five runs in five innings. It was just “one of those games” as Snell allowed only one double among nine hits while walking three. He did have six strikeouts, but the Bucs just kept getting singles with runners on base. Four of the runs came in the fourth innings in what otherwise looked like a promising start.
The projected lineup for Colorado has only three hitters that strikeout at an above-league-average rate. Of course, Hunter Goodman (25.0%, 128 plate appearances), Ezequiel Tovar (26.6% 79 PAs) and Jordan Beck (29.1%, 127 PAs) are also three of the better bats in the lineup, so it is encouraging that Snell has a good chance to make some magic happen at the plate against the heart of the order.
Masyn Winn (knee) was a late scratch last night, and the team is without Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan. The Mariners are in the thick of the playoff hunt, both in the Wild Card and for the American League West. Houston is only one game ahead of the M’s for the division title, while Texas is 1.5 games behind in the battle for the final Wild Card berth.
St. Louis has a bottom-5 88 wRC+ this season on the road against right-handed hurlers, and RHP Logan Gilbert has been stellar since missing seven weeks beginning at the end of April with a flexor tendon strain. In his last 10 starts, Gilbert averaged 86.6 pitches, and the team has been content to keep him on a soft cap of 90 pitches or six innings of work.
That has worked out well as Gilbert has been efficient by averaging 5.1 frames per outing, striking out 12.0 per nine innings. He had only 14 walks and seven home runs in this timeframe with a 3.50 ERA, 3.05 FIP and 2.90 xFIP.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Atlanta Braves
In Los Angeles, the Dodgers will be facing LHP Kyle Freeland, and the blue stack holds a 15% probability of being the highest fantasy producer on DraftKings and Yahoo, with a 10% likelihood of leading the FanDuel stacks. Look to the usual suspects, though be sure to find a little differentiation elsewhere.
RHP Jameson Taillon is expected to start in Atlanta after a couple of weeks on the injured list due to a groin issue. He had one rehabilitation outing in Triple-A, tossing 42 pitches and striking out six in 3.2 innings of action. The soon-to-be 34-year-old had his lowest strikeout rates each of the last two seasons, with an 18.6% combined rate. He has always had elevated fly ball and hard-hit rates, but this year has been particularly tough.
Chicago is in an interesting spot with the team unlikely to erase a 6.5-game deficit and catch the Milwaukee Brewers for the National League Central title. The Cubs hold a commanding eight-game league over San Francisco, with the Giants being the first team out of the Wild Card race. The bullpen is rested, though manager Craig Counsell may not have a quick hook for Taillon as the team would like to see him get at least four innings tonight.
Even if Taillon is sent to the clubhouse early in a lopsided game, there are plenty of low-leverage relievers who could take the ball, including RHPs Ben Brown and Javier Assad, or lefties Drew Pomeranz and Taylor Rogers. This is a far different situation than say the San Diego Padres, who are fighting for every win and have one of the best bullpens in the game backing up the likes of RHPs Yu Darvish and Randy Vasquez.
Ozzie Albies has had a pedestrian season, though he has been locked in over the last month and now is finding himself in the three-hole or batting cleanup. Correspondingly, Ronald Acuna Jr. is in a dreadful slump and has slipped to the six-hole behind Ha-Seong Kim. Matt Olson, switch-hitter Jurickson Profar and catcher Drake Baldwin are the trio to target, with Albies and Acuna following. For differentiation, Kim, outfielder Michael Harris II and designated hitter Marcell Ozuna are fine, though this would only be looking for differentiation from other Atlanta stacks and not the overarching tournament field.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: New York Yankees
The last half dozen starts were particularly tough, as the soon-to-be 30-year-old gave up a ton of contact while seeing his strikeouts falter. The 6.68 ERA indicates some bad luck when compared to his 3.53 FIP and 4.05 xFIP. He ceded only three home runs in this timeframe, with the opposition otherwise hitting them where the defense ain’t, posting a ridiculous .364 batting average on balls in play.
In his most recent outing, Flaherty allowed four runs in 4.1 innings to the Chicago White Sox, giving the Southsiders a robust nine runs in 8.2 innings during this stretch. So much of pitching is mental, and even an established veteran like Flaherty can get in their own head.
Now that everyone is healthy, the Yankees have a seemingly endless lineup, and the projected lineup has an impossible .274 ISO against right-handed pitching this year. That is like having a lineup consisting entirely of Home Run Derby participants, which is nuts. The “worst” options are catcher Austin Wells (.226 ISO, 276 PAs) and Anthony Volpe (.196 ISO, 395 PAs). The bench is also strong with 38-year-old veteran Paul Goldschmidt now platooning against lefties and versatile Jose Caballero serving as a utility man while still leading the league in steals.
Aaron Judge, of course, is spendy, though that is going to keep his popularity in check with gamers going elsewhere for one-off hitters, as there are expensive priority pitchers tonight. Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice, Giancarlo Stanton and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are all interchangeable options, and Ryan McMahon provides salary savings from the nine-hole. Yes, the former middle-of-the-order batter for Colorado is batting last for the Yankees!
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Tails By OddsShopper shines.
Take a bet like Agustin Ramirez to hit a home run. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
RHP Jake Irvin allows more power to left-handed hitters (21 HRs), but he is far from impervious to same-handed batsmen (12 HRs). Ramirez is having an excellent rookie campaign, and he knocked 14 of his 19 home runs against fellow righties. The Nationals also have one of the worst bullpens in the league right now, with literally no notable names (see FanGraphs Roster Resources page).
