MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Gray should at least be fresh, having tossed three innings in a rain-shortened effort in his final start before the All-Star break. He then lasted only 3.1 innings on Saturday, giving up nine runs in 3.1 innings with 11 hits, including two home runs in Arizona. Gray did battle his way to five strikeouts, though that was small solace for his fantasy supporters.
The 35-year-old allowed five or more earned runs in four of his 20 (20%) starts, but he held opposing teams scoreless six times (30%), with another five outings (25%) of one or two runs. While Gray’s 27.1% strikeout rate is down from his terrific 30.0% last year, he still can make his own magic at the plate. Unfortunately, the projected San Diego lineup has only a 21.2% strikeout rate this season against right-handed hurlers, though Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth have been struggling over the last 30 days, and Jose Iglesias, along with catcher Martin Maldonado, is not going to scare anyone at the bottom of the lineup card.
It is favorable hitting weather in St. Louis tonight with temperatures around 90 degrees at first pitch and humidity in the 50% to 60% range. The Cardinals are only one game above .500, having lost six of their last eight games, so this series will be key for the team to figure out if they are buyers or sellers with the trade deadline looming and the team already 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race. The bullpen is relatively rested, so it will be interesting to see how long manager Oliver Marmol allows his ace to work out of any potential jams or struggles.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like Riley Greene to stay under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (HRR) tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet — meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. And with Portfolio EV, you’re not relying on one-off picks. You’re stacking dozens — even hundreds — of +EV wagers at scale using the Mass Entry tool, turning small edges into long-term profit.
Kikuchi has been lucky with his 3.13 ERA not supported by his 4.26 xERA, though he continues to generate enough strikeouts to make him interesting from a DFS perspective.
Unfortunately for the former Saitama Seibu Lion, the M’s projected lineup has only a 20.0% strikeout rate against southpaws this season, with Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena forming a tough trio in the heart of the order.
Continuing with additional options, RHP Reese Olson is in play at home against the Toronto Blue Jays. Detroit has been a fun story this season as the Motor City Kitties have been at or near the top of the standings all year.
Olson has been part of a strong rotation, with a 2.71 ERA, 3.66 xERA, 3.06 FIP and 3.27 xFIP in his 12 starts. The soon-to-be 26-year-old did miss six weeks with the recovering and ramp up from inflammation of his right ring finger. He has worked his way back to his typical 88- to 93-pitch count, so there are no concerns about stamina.
Toronto has the lowest strikeout rate in the league against both lefties and righties, making the statement even more impressive. That makes things tough on opposing starters from a DFS perspective since strikeouts are, of course, the currency of the realm.
There is also a chance for precipitation this evening in the Detroit area, though we should be able to discern from the pre-game radar if that will be a real concern. Olson projects for just over four strikeouts in this matchup, so he will need to have a relatively clean game and reach the sixth inning to have an impact in the large-field tournaments.
The Athletics are in Houston, which means RHP Luis Severino does not have to pitch in Sutter Health Park, where he carries a 6.68 ERA with a .302/.367/.462 triple-slash line. On the road, he has a 3.10 ERA and a .215/.290/.333 triple-slash line. His 4.37 FIP at home is comparable to his 4.43 FIP on the road, which means both good and bad luck have been influencing his results at the various venues.
Severino has made his preference for a trade well known, so having a good start tonight against the Astros is important for him getting a change of scenery. The ‘Stros have the second-best record in the league, despite missing Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes, and Jake Meyers on offense and having all of the starting rotation out, save for Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez.
The projected Houston lineup is mostly right-handed, which should help Severino. Plus, while the veteran arm doesn’t have a lot of strikeout upside anymore, regulars Cam Smith (28.2%, 277 plate appearances) and Christian Walker (28.0%, 329 PAs) present strikeout opportunities, as do replacements Taylor Trammell, Cooper Hummel and Zack Short.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Los Angeles Angels
Evans tends to survive, though not having any real “out pitch” makes cleaning up messes himself pretty tricky. He also has a subpar ground ball rate with a hefty 54.3% hard-hit rate that has led to some untimely home runs. Enough of the Seattle relievers are fresh, so manager Dan Wilson does have options if Evans struggles.
Los Angeles has plenty of power against right-handed pitching, though the trade-off is a lofty 25.1% strikeout rate this season for the projected lineup. The top 6 have been firing on all cylinders over the last 30 days, as well as for the season, which gives gamers plenty of ways to stack the Halos. Outfielders Mike Trout, Taylor Ward and Jo Adell are all key options, with shortstop Zach Neto, third baseman Yoan Moncada and first baseman Nolan Schanuel providing clicks at other positions.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Detroit Tigers
2023 was rough for LHP Eric Lauer, as he was designated for assignment at the end of the season after posting a 6.56 ERA in 46.2 innings across 10 starts. Lauer chose free agency instead, signing a minor league deal with Pittsburgh. The Pirates were nonplussed by his 2024 Triple-A results, granting Lauer his release so he could sign with Houston. The struggles continued on the Astros, who released Lauer in August, allowing him to head to the KBO. The 30-year-old ended up winning the Korean Series with the Samsung Lions, though the team elected to not bring him back.
That brings us to present day. Toronto gave the journeyman a minor league deal, calling Lauer up at the end of April, where he has remained in the rotation. It is important to know how Lauer spent the last year and a half, as it helps provide context for his 2.80 ERA and 3.06 xERA in his 61 innings this season. To be clear, these results are an outlier, and while Lauer has always been able to provide around a strikeout per inning, we should expect his home run and walk rates to slide back to his norms instead of the current sparkling career-best figures.
Kerry Carpenter (hamstring) has a good chance to return this weekend, which will give a bump to the Tigers. In the meantime, utilityman Jahmai Jones is the clear discount dandy on DraftKings ($3,300), FanDuel ($2,400) and Yahoo ($10). He will almost certainly be pulled when a right-handed reliever comes into the game, but he should have two or potentially three chances against Lauer.
Gleyber Torres, Spencer Torkelson and switch-hitter Wenceel Perez have all been stellar against southpaws this season. In addition to this trio, catcher Dillon Dingler and first time All-Star Zach McKinstry are contrarian options further down the lineup.
