Expert MLB DFS Advice: Marlins Stack Worth the Massive Chalk? (May 22)

The MLB DFS main slate for today is huge, presenting numerous value options for daily fantasy lineups. In this breakdown, we will analyze each game and pinpoint the players to target. Without further ado, here are some potential MLB DFS value picks for Monday, May 22.

MLB DFS Value and Advice | May 22

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Los Angeles Dodgers (Gavin Stone) at Atlanta Braves (Charlie Morton)

There are not many great pitching options on this slate, so Morton is appealing despite a dangerous matchup. He has struck out 23.8% of hitters and has a 3.59 FIP this season. Stone is a highly ranked pitching prospect, and he is inexpensive. He is viable if paying down for pitching, but it probably will not be necessary given how inexpensive many of the hitting options are on this slate. Both offenses have tournament-winning upside despite relatively difficult matchups. Atlanta ranks fifth in top stack percentage in the Top Stacks Tool, while the Dodgers rank eighth. Atlanta is projected to be slightly over-owned, however, while the Dodgers are going slightly overlooked.

Detroit Tigers (Michael Lorenzen) at Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)

Singer’s $7,000 salary on DraftKings, combined with a favorable matchup against a Detroit team that has a 79 wRC+ and 23.6% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season, makes him a viable SP2 option. He has struggled, striking out just 19.8% of hitters and posting a 4.78 FIP. His xwOBA allowed this season is about 19% higher than it has been since the start of the 2021 season, and his whiffs per swing are down about 1.5%. Still, he is inexpensive on a slate where most pitchers have red flags. The offenses in this game are appealing as well, as both teams are relatively inexpensive. Detroit is third in stack score, a metric that combines the chances of being the top stack with the chances of being the top value stack, while Kansas City is eighth. The top of the Royals lineup is legitimately good, however, with Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez all among the best options at their respective positions.

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Houston Astros (Cristian Javier) at Milwaukee Brewers (Corbin Burnes)

This game features two of the best pitching options on the slate. Burnes’ strikeout numbers are down this season, as he has struck out just 21.6% of hitters. His xwOBA allowed this season is about 15% worse than it has been since the start of the 2021 season, and his whiffs per swing are down about 17%. There is certainly reason to be hesitant to use Burnes in a tough spot against Houston. At the same time, there are not many pitchers on this slate that inspire confidence, and Burnes does have a track record of being a very good pitcher. Javier on the other side is slightly more expensive at $10,000 compared to Burnes’ $9,000, but he has also been the better pitcher this season. Javier has struck out 28.5% of hitters and has a 3.52 FIP. From an offensive standpoint, Milwaukee has the third-lowest stack score, while Houston has the second lowest. Both stacks are projected to be under-owned, but they are also two of the least likely teams to succeed.

San Francisco Giants (John Brebbia/Sean Manaea) at Minnesota Twins (Bailey Ober)

Ober has struck out 24% of hitters and has a 3.00 FIP this season. The Giants are a tough matchup, with a 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, but they also have a 24.8% strikeout percentage. Manaea has been good at getting strikeouts this season, striking out 25.5% of hitters, but he has been bad at just about everything else. He has walked 12.7% of hitters and has a 5.94 FIP and 1.99 home runs per nine innings. He is expected to follow Brebbia. It remains to be seen how many innings he will throw in this role, but he should throw around 75 pitches if he is going well. The Twins are fifth in stack score and have a 6% chance of being the top stack at about 5.5% aggregate ownership. San Francisco is about 4.5% to be the top stack at about 2% ownership.

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Miami Marlins (Edward Cabrera) at Colorado Rockies (Chase Anderson)

The Marlins have a 5.9 implied run total, while the Rockies have a 5.6 implied run total. Anderson is not a very good pitcher, and the Marlins are the most likely team to be the top stack by a wide margin. They are also getting a ton of ownership, however, so it will be important to find ways to be contrarian elsewhere in lineups that stack them. Colorado is projected to be slightly under-owned as they face a more talented pitcher in Cabrera. Cabrera is a highly regarded pitching prospect who has struck out 30.1% of hitters this season. He has also walked 16.4% and has a 4.80 FIP. Cabrera is projected for just 1% ownership, so he is an interesting GPP option based on his high ceiling. The Rockies are more likely to succeed, however.

Boston Red Sox (Tanner Houck) at Los Angeles Angels (Jaime Barria)

Houck is an interesting GPP pivot, as he is not getting enough ownership compared to similarly priced pitchers like Ober and Singer. The Top Pitchers Tool shows Singer to be about 1.1 times as likely to be a top-2 pitcher, while Ober is about 1.65 times as likely. Singer is projected to be 3.9 times as popular, however, while Ober is projected to be 6.1 times more popular than Houck. Singer and Ober both project as better options, but lineups that need a low-owned player can turn to Houck. The offenses here are the pieces that instill the most confidence. Both teams have about a 4.8 implied run total. Houck’s biggest issue has been with left-handed power. The Angels do not have much of it, but they do have Shohei Ohtani and recently activated Jared Walsh. Barria also struggles with left-handed power. Rafael Devers is a fantastic DFS play, while Alex Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Triston Casas all look very good as well.

Oakland Athletics (Kyle Muller) at Seattle Mariners (Luis Castillo)

Castillo is the best pitching option on the slate in terms of talent, matchup and salary, and it is not particularly close. As a result, he projects for about 65% ownership. The Athletics have just a 2.5 implied run total, as they have an 87 wRC+ and a 26.2% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season. Castillo has struck out 27.8% of hitters and has a 3.25 FIP. Muller has struggled with right-handed power, allowing a .218 xISO and posting a 17.1% strikeout percentage against right-handed hitters since the start of last season. The Mariners active roster has a 115 wRC+ and .189 ISO against left-handed pitching in that same timeframe.

Adam Scherer
Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].

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