Expert MLB DFS Advice: Red Sox Power Lefties a Great Start to Lineups (May 31)

Today’s evening slate is limited to only six games, but there are numerous valuable options. As usual, we’ll analyze matchups, park factors and weather conditions to pinpoint the best MLB DFS value spots. Join us as we analyze Wednesday’s slate for the latest news and notes to help us construct our lineups, including with one lefty-heavy getting a starter who is vulnerable to left-handed power.

MLB DFS Value and Advice | May 31

Milwaukee Brewers (Julio Teheran) at Toronto Blue Jays (Alek Manoah)

Teheran was effective in his first start of the season, but he needs to show a lot more before deserving buy-in. This is a tough matchup, and the Blue Jays look like one of the top stacks on the slate. Their 12.1% top stacks percentage is second highest, and they are also projected for the second-most ownership. Manoah has struggled overall, striking out just 18% of hitters and posting a 5.85 xFIP. Milwaukee’s active roster has a 24.1% strikeout percentage and 99 wRC+, so there is some upside for Manoah at a cheap $6,900 price tag. There is a lot of risk, however. He has been particularly ineffective against left-handed hitters, so Christian Yelich and Rowdy Tellez stand out.

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Cincinnati Reds (Luke Weaver) at Boston Red Sox (James Paxton)

Boston’s 5.9 implied run total is the highest on the slate, and it leads the way in the Top Stacks tool. Weaver has allowed a .224 xISO to left-handed hitters this year and will have to deal with a lineup full of left-handed power. Rafael Devers is the priority, but Alex Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida and Jarren Duran all look good as well. Paxton gave up five earned runs in his last start, but he has been effective overall through his first three outings. He has struck out 31.7% of hitters and has a 3.91 xFIP. He has had issues with power, allowing a .366 xISO to lefties and a .237 xISO to righties in an extremely limited sample. At $8,500 in a matchup with the Reds, Paxton looks like a strong play on tonight’s slate because of his upside. The Reds are fourth in top stack percentage, so they make sense as a stack in non-Paxton lineups.

Philadelphia Phillies (Aaron Nola) at New York Mets (Carlos Carrasco)

Carrasco finally had a good start his last time out. He has a dangerous matchup tonight but does get to play in a pitcher-friendly park at an extremely inexpensive $6,400 price tag. He is currently only projected for 8% ownership despite a 15% chance of being a top-2 pitcher and a 26% chance of being a top-2 value arm. Nola has struggled overall, striking out just 21.7% of hitters. He has a tough matchup against the Mets, who have struck out just 19.6% of the time against right-handed pitching and posting a 107 wRC+. Nola has a long track record of being a strong pitcher, however, so he is still a viable option at $9,100 on a six-game slate. Philadelphia looks like the more appealing of the two offenses, with an 8% chance of being the top stack.

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Minnesota Twins (Louie Varland) at Houston Astros (Hunter Brown)

Brown is relatively expensive at $10,000, but he looks excellent tonight. He has the highest top-2 percentage in the Top Pitchers tool, and, not surprisingly, he is also projected for the most ownership. Minnesota’s lineup has gotten stronger with the returns of Royce Lewis and Max Kepler, but its active roster has a 27.9% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching. It has also been productive, with a 110 wRC+, but Brown is a promising young pitcher who has struck out 28.1% of hitters and has a 3.08 xFIP . Varland has a 23.8% strikeout percentage and 3.78 xFIP. He is projected to be under-owned at just 6% ownership, but he does have a very dangerous matchup against the Astros. He has been especially prone to right-handed power. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are strong plays as always, but Jose Altuve and Jeremy Pena are appealing hitting targets as well.

Colorado Rockies (Dinelson Lamet) at Arizona Diamondbacks (Tommy Henry)

Lamet has been used exclusively out of the bullpen for the Rockies, but he made three starts at Triple-A during his rehab stint and was stretched out to 63 pitches in his most recent start. He has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, but he is talented. At $5,100 and minimal ownership, Lamet is not the craziest dart throw in large-field tournaments, but it is probably best to take a wait-and-see approach. Henry is projected for about 14% ownership at $5,700 in a favorable matchup. He has about an 11% chance of being a top-2 pitcher and a 26% chance of being a top-2 MLB DFS value. He has only struck out 13% of hitters and has a 5.96 xFIP, so it is surprising to see him projected for nearly twice as much ownership as Carrasco in the same price range. Arizona has the third-highest top stack percentage and ranks fifth in stack score. The Rockies are projected to be a bit under-owned, with a 9% chance of being the top stack and just 6% aggregate ownership.

New York Yankees (Clarke Schmidt) at Seattle Mariners (George Kirby)

Kirby is second in top-2-pitcher percentage and also in projected ownership. It is a tough matchup, but he is a good pitcher on a slate with weak pitching. He is also in a favorable pitcher’s park. Schmidt is a strong SP2 option at $7,700 as well thanks to the park and a 25.3% strikeout percentage. Both offenses are in the bottom 3 in top stacks percentage, though that does not mean to ignore Aaron Judge and Julio Rodriguez.

Adam Scherer
Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].

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