The main MLB DFS slate is smaller, but there is still some value to exploit given the strange pitching situations. Namely, a former All-Star pitcher is returning to the MLB mound for the first time in years, and so one team is in a good spot to tee off. Plus, another former stud starter is getting his first cracks in a return from rehab. With that in mind, and looking to other MLB DFS value spots on Thursday, let’s go over the news and notes that will help us attack this slate.
MLB DFS Value and Advice | May 25
Baltimore Orioles (Kyle Gibson) at New York Yankees (Clarke Schmidt)
This is a dangerous matchup for both starters, but with it being a five-game slate, it is still worth some interest. Schmidt’s 26.1% strikeout percentage is the second highest on the slate. The big issue facing Schmidt is that he has been very vulnerable against left-handed hitters. Lefties have a .405 xwOBA and .230 xISO against him this season. Baltimore’s projected lineup has plenty of left-handed power with Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander and Gunnar Henderson. They will also probably have Adam Frazier and Terrin Vavra from the left side as well. Gibson has benefited from pitching in Camden Yards, as he has allowed a .091 actual ISO and .258 actual wOBA to right-handed hitters, compared to a .203 xISO and .340 xwOBA. Gleyber Torres and Aaron Judge both look like fantastic plays. The Yankees are currently fourth in stack score, and the Orioles are sixth.
Philadelphia Phillies (Aaron Nola) at Atlanta Braves (Dylan Dodd)
Nola has the second-highest top-2 pitcher percentage in the Top Pitchers Tool despite a tough matchup on the road in Atlanta. He has struggled by his standards this season, posting a 21.3% strikeout percentage and a 3.92 FIP. There is not much quality pitching on this slate, however, so Nola is expected to be the second-highest-owned pitcher. Dodd is the only pitcher on DraftKings priced below $7,000. He has a tough matchup against the Phillies and only projects for a 12.6% chance of being a top-2 pitcher. The Phillies are third in stack score and have a 14.2% chance of being the top-scoring stack, at 15% ownership. The Braves come in second from the bottom in stack score, but they are projected to be under-owned, with a 10% chance of being the top stack, at 7% ownership.
San Francisco Giants (Scott Alexander) at Milwaukee Brewers (Julio Teheran)
This game looks good for bats. It is a bullpen game for the Giants, which is less than ideal for Milwaukee, but they are in a favorable park for hitters. The Giants are especially appealing as they face Teheran with a sizable park shift. Teheran has not pitched since 2021, when he made one start and threw five innings for the Tigers. The last season in which Teheran threw more than 32 innings was 2019. So while it is unclear what to expect from him, it is likely that it will not be good. He allowed a .178 xISO to lefties and a .176 xISO to righties in 2019 and has likely gotten worse. In eight starts at Triple-A with the Padres this season, Teheran struck out 24.3% of hitters but also had a 5.45 FIP. Projection systems on FanGraphs range project a strikeout percentage between 16% and 18.9% and a FIP between 5.35 and 6.08. San Francisco has the highest stack score in the Top Stacks tool. Its active roster has a 106 wRC+ and .166 ISO against right-handed pitching since the start of last season, and the ISO would almost certainly be higher if they played their home games in Milwaukee instead of San Francisco.
Latest MLB DFS Content
- Today’s Top MLB DFS Pitcher Pivots: Sean Manaea and More (April 19)
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1s Joe Ryan and Freddy Peralta (April 19)
- DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From MLB DFS Contest Sims | Julio Rodriguez (April 19 Main Slate)
- MLB DFS Punt Plays For DraftKings and FanDuel (April 19)
- MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks Today: Play Blake Snell in Tournaments (April 19)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
New York Mets (Carlos Carrasco) at Chicago Cubs (Kyle Hendricks)
Hendricks is making his first start of the season for the Cubs after four rehab starts at Triple-A. He has dropped off in the last couple seasons, posting a 4.89 FIP in 2021 and 4.82 FIP last season. The Mets are fifth in stack score, but there is some added upside here since there is an elevated chance that Hendricks struggles out of the gate in his return from injury. Carrasco is only $7,000 and has about a 20% chance of being a top-2 pitcher. He is projected for about 21% ownership. He has really struggled through his first four starts this season, striking out just 12.8% of hitters and posting an 11.6% walk percentage, 6.97 FIP and 1.93 home runs allowed per nine innings. He has allowed a .191 xISO to lefties and .316 xISO to righties through those four starts. The Cubs only have a 7.6% chance of being the top-scoring stack, but as is the case with Hendricks, there is some added upside here since there is a non-zero chance that Carrasco will never return to his previous form (which is a large component of his projection and therefore the Cubs MLB DFS value).
Oakland Athletics (J.P. Sears) at Seattle Mariners (Logan Gilbert)
Gilbert is the clear No. 1 pitching option. He has the highest strikeout percentage on the slate at 30.6%, and he adds a 2.68 FIP. He is pitching in a favorable pitcher’s park, and he is facing a team that probably would not be the best team at the Triple-A level. Sears has solid strikeout stuff, striking out 25.1% of hitters this season and recording a 28.8% strikeout percentage against right-handed hitters specifically, but he has also allowed a .254 xISO to righties. Despite being risky, he has the fourth-highest top-2 pitcher percentage and projects for the third-most ownership on DraftKings simply because of how bad the alternatives are on this slate. Seattle has a 9% chance of being the top stack at 12.5% ownership. It is possible that this is a watered-down lineup, however, as Eugenio Suarez and A.J. Pollock both left last night’s game early.
