After a short slate yesterday, the MLB is back with a massive slate tonight. To prepare betting cards, we will again look to MLB Bet Pro to find the best MLB player props on today’s slate. Don’t forget that you can subscribe to MLB Bet Pro today and get a free trial week to access premium MLB player props. Don’t miss the chance to take advantage of this offer!
Top MLB Player Props & Picks From MLB Bet Pro | May 19
3. Anthony Rizzo Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400, BetMGM)
Since it is a home run bet, the sBet percentage (recommended bank roll allocation) on this one is much lower than the other two plays here. That said, at +400 for a guy slugging .500 to hit a home run, the 17% expected ROI is worth a sprinkle. Rizzo has nine home runs this year, and today he gets a matchup against a bullpen arm who is getting the start for Cincinnati.
It is only a 23% expected win rate for Rizzo, but that is the second-highest mark for a home run over on the slate, trailing only his teammate Aaron Judge. And since Judge’s odds are +170 for an over, Rizzo dwarfs him in the projected ROI department.
2. Jake Irvin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105, BetMGM)
Irvin’s strikeout numbers are modest at best. His 8.2 strikeouts per nine are not awful, and his 21.9% strikeout rate is passable, but both leave something to be desired. The Tigers are a middle-of-the-road team from a strikeout perspective, so they are likely not offering any boost to Irvin’s averages. He has exceeded this line in two of three starts this year, but MLB Bet Pro only has him at 3.9 strikeouts. That projection and the plus-money odds are leading to an extremely high 18% EV on a 57% expected win rate for under 4.5 strikeouts.
1. Carlos Carrasco Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-174, FanDuel)
Carrasco has not pitched since mid-April, and his strikeout totals were uninspiring in the three starts he did make, but he still eclipsed this line in two of those. His 5.3 strikeouts per nine make for a terrible average; however, he only needs to pitch five innings to get to three strikeouts at that rate, which he did in 19 of 29 starts last year. Yes, the Guardians strike out at a low clip, but 2.5 is far too low a line for a pitcher who has been closer to the range of 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings the last few years.
That is pushing Carrasco’s win rate to a whopping 74%, which gives this bet an 18% expected ROI despite the short -174 odds.
