Tonight’s MLB schedule features a smaller selection of six games, but there are plenty of valuable betting opportunities to explore. MLB player props have some great value spots, and as always we turn to MLB Bet Pro once again to find the best picks for the day. It’s worth mentioning that the following are merely three of the +EV bets available on MLB Bet Pro at the moment; the model has over 41 other options, which you can access by subscribing today!
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3. Rowdy Tellez Over 0.5 Home Runs (+600, PointsBet)
Tellez is tied for fifth in the National League in home runs, and yet he is getting +600 odds to hit a home run tonight against the Giants. Granted, the matchup with Giants starter Scott Alexander is lefty on lefty, and only one of Tellez’s 12 home runs this year came against a left-handed pitcher. But Alexander is a reliever and will not last long in this game, so most of Tellez’s hacks will come against the rest of the San Francisco bullpen, which has allowed 11 homers over the last 10 games.
This is not a great spot for a Tellez home run, hence MLB Bet Pro giving him just a 15% to go deep tonight, but the long odds make his power bat worth a sprinkle and lead to a 7% EV.
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2. Esteury Ruiz Under 1.5 Total Bases (-175, BetMGM)
Ruiz’s line getting bumped up to 1.5 total bases is a direct result of his hot streak. He had an eight-game hit streak going prior to his 0-for yesterday, and he has bumped his average up to .280 on the year.
The problem is Ruiz’s power numbers are lacking — just a .090 ISO and 15 total extra-base hits on the season — so most likely he will need multiple hits to surpass 1.5. That is something he has done in just 14 of 51 games this season (27.5%). The shorter odds here on under 1.5 are not ideal, but the 71% expected win rate still gives this wager a 12% EV. For a little longer of a shot on Ruiz tonight, the under on 0.5 hits also has a high EV at +195, albeit with a much lower win rate.
1. Nick Allen Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105, BetMGM)
Allen has started to pick up his game a bit lately, but he has only barely crested the Mendoza line. He is still recording a hit in fewer than half his games and is typically only good for three plate appearances at the bottom of a miserable Athletics lineup. Plus, today his matchup is with RHP Logan Gilbert, who has been pretty dominant this season, and Allen has awful splits against right-handed pitchers.
It is never comfortable going under on 0.5 total bases since one fluky swing can lead to a cheap over, but Allen against a tough matchup is about as good of an under spot as it gets. MLB Bet Pro gives this a 56% win rate, and the plus money drives a 16% expected ROI.
