MLB Bet Pro’s Best MLB Player Props: Time to Buy Kodai Senga’s Strikeout Stuff (May 30)

It is another huge main slate of MLB action. There are 15 games total tonight, and once again MLB Bet Pro has a ton of MLB player props with double-digit EVs. Most notable today is rookie Kodai Senga, who is starting to put up elite strikeout numbers but may have his hands full against the Phillies. Let’s find out where Senga stacks up among the rest of the top player props today.

Please note that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has over 100 other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to both NBA and MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!

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Top MLB Player Props & Picks From MLB Bet Pro | May 30

3. Kodai Senga Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-146, FanDuel)

This is comfortably the best strikeout over play on the board in terms of EV.

Senga’s overall results have been up and down to start his MLB career, but the strikeouts have been there since Day 1. He has only fallen shy of this line once all season despite never making it further than six innings into a game. Senga even took the mighty Rays for 12 strikeouts just two starts ago, only giving up one earned run in the process.

The Phillies, while a potentially powerful lineup, are vulnerable to striking out a lot, holding MLB’s ninth-highest strikeout rate. Senga is averaging 11.4 strikeouts per nine, so he only needs to go five innings in a typical start to get to six strikeouts. He has done that in every start but one, and that is leading to a 65% win on the over from MLB Bet Pro and a 9% expected ROI.


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2. Tyler Anderson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-137, BetRivers)

Anderson has never been an elite strikeout guy, but this year has been something else. His strikeout rate is down to 13.6% through nine starts — 4 points lower than his previous full-season low — and his strikeouts per nine are just 5.5. At that rate, he would need to go over eight innings to get to five strikeouts, which, by the way, he has done three times in his last 68 starts.

The White Sox are also not a particularly strikeout-prone team. Their strikeout rate as a unit is below MLB average, and there are only a couple of spots in the lineup that are exploitable spots for Anderson. As such, MLB Bet Pro projects him for only 3.7 strikeouts tonight.

1. Joey Gallo Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135, BetMGM)

Gallo’s power numbers are definitely there — .317 ISO, .524 slugging, 61.1% hard-hit rate — so he can easily surpass this with one swing. That said, he is also only hitting .206 on the year (.183 in May) and has gone hitless in over half his games this month in which he had at least two plate appearances. Plus, Gallo has just one hit streak of longer than two games this season, and he has hit safely in his last two games. That trend would suggest an 0-for tonight, let alone two total bases.

Astros starter Brandon Bielak is susceptible to power, but Gallo’s “three true outcomes” style points to the under on multiple total bases most of the time. Tonight that is getting a 64% win rate and a 12% EV from MLB Bet Pro.

Sam Smith
Author
Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.

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