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MLB Pick’em Predictions for PrizePicks MLB | Sep. 19
Zac Gallen O/U 4.5 Strikeouts
First Taco of the day 🌮 pic.twitter.com/RrWJXl6MYL
— PrizePicks (@PrizePicks) September 19, 2023
Zac Gallen may have knocked himself out of the NL CY Young Award race, but he still has value on his strikeout line in a must-win game against the San Francisco Giants. At just 4.5, against a team he’s hit this line in both games this season, this Taco Tuesday should be the first pick ’em’ in your entry.
It hasn’t been great for Gallen as of late. He’s struck out more than five batters in just two of his last five starts, but he’ll be pitching at home tonight, where his game excels. He’s surpassed five strikeouts in 12 of 14 home starts and has topped double-digit K’s in four of those starts.
The matchup isn’t as ideal as we’d like. The Giants have a top-five K rate against RHP in September, mixed with a top-10 batting average. But Gallen’s history against the Giants tells us to back him tonight, as he has a great shot to go deep into this game and finally cash in on a Taco Tuesday.
Hunter Brown O/U 2.5 Earned Runs
Hunter Brown put together his best outing of the season in his last start. Although it was against the Oakland Athletics, and he pitched just five innings, he was unhittable. He allowed just two baserunners all game, which came via the walk. Brown’s leash may be short again, according to the books. His outs line is set at 14.5 with vig on the over. With a leash like that, we’ll take our chances that Brown can post another start with under three earned runs allowed.
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Clarke Schmidt O/U 15.5 Pitching Outs
Keep the walks down, and Clarke Schmidt will soar over this line. Schmidt has walked at least two batters in four of his last six starts, but I expect him to have much better command today at home. His BB% ranks in the 78th percentile in baseball, and he’s limited his walk counter to seven in his last 10 home games.
The Blue Jays last saw Schmidt in the season’s opening month, where he was dominant. He went 5.2 innings, allowed zero runs, and four total baserunners. The Blue Jays firepower offense is nothing to shy away but they rank in the league’s bottom half in batting average against RHP in September. Schmidt’s K stuff has been on full display as of late, and I expect him to make it five out of his last starts, achieving at least 16 outs.