NBA DFS Advice Today: Everything You Need to Know for Thursday, March 7

Happy Thursday! Josh Engleman here to break down everything you need to know about tonight’s NBA DFS slate. This evening, we’ve got a few teams on back-to-backs (which generally means late-breaking injury news), but we know enough about this slate already to get into the nitty-gritty. Let’s dive right into my NBA DFS advice for today, Thursday, March 7. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA, MMA and NASCAR) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

NBA DFS Advice Today: Everything You Need to Know for Thursday, March 7

Brooklyn Nets (-2) at Detroit Pistons (215) | NBA DFS Advice Today


The Brooklyn Nets are two-point favorites in Detroit with a total of 215. The game tips off at 7 p.m. ET. There isn’t a lot to like on the Brooklyn side as they will be without Cameron Johnson, Ben Simmons and Cam Thomas, opening up some minutes and creating a bit of value for Lonnie Walker IV. At $4,600, with shooting guard/small forward eligibility, he’s looking like the best option for Brooklyn in a favorable matchup against the weak Pistons defense. Following him, Mikal Bridges and Dennis Schroder both seem like viable plays today.

The Pistons will be without Quentin Grimes again, who is still suffering from right knee soreness, making it an intriguing situation for the team. While no single play stands out, five guys seem just as appealing as Walker did for the opposite side: Cade Cunningham ($7,600, point guard), Ausar Thompson ($5,400, small forward/power forward), Isaiah Stewart ($4,900, power forward/center) Jalen Duren ($6,500, center only) and Simone Fontecchio ($4,200, small forward/power forward). There isn’t a specific preference among these five, so whichever fits your salary and positional needs seems perfect.



Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.5) at Indiana Pacers (228)

The Minnesota Timberwolves are 1.5-point underdogs in Indiana with a total of 228. With Karl-Anthony Towns out due to left knee soreness, it should increase the value across the board for the Wolves. Jordan McLaughlin is also questionable for this game.

Kyle Anderson, at $4,300 for small forward/power forward stands out as the top option for Minnesota and one of the best point-per-dollar plays on today’s slate. Anthony Edwards ($8,800, shooting guard/small forward), sees a significant bump in usage and assist rate with Towns off the floor, making Anderson and Edwards high-end priorities for me on this seven-game slate.

While I’m interested in Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid, Mike Conley and Jaden McDaniels, Anderson and Edwards are the priority options

Indiana is also dealing with injuries, as Bennedict Mathurin and Doug McDermott are out, but the Pacers have six separate players who seem just as viable, relative to salary. These include Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, Jalen Smith, Miles Turner, Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton. I don’t have a strong preference among these players; however, Haliburton’s price tag is appealing, even though Minnesota is a tough matchup being the number one defense and 20th in pace.

Miami Heat (+5) at Dallas Mavericks (231.5)


The Miami Heat are five-point underdogs in Dallas with a total of 231.5. The Heat will be without Tyler Herro, Kevin Love and Josh Richardson, but Caleb Martin is available. Even though it’s a good matchup against a bottom-10 Dallas defense and a top-10 pace, we don’t see a ton of value coming out of Miami. Martin, at $4,500 and with power forward eligibility, seems like the best option, which isn’t saying much. Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Bam Adebayo are both reasonable options, with Jimmy Butler likely too expensive at $8,300 to garner much interest.

On the Dallas side, it’s the usual story with Luka Doncic ($12,200, point guard only) as likely as anyone to be the highest scorer on the slate. If we find enough value, I have no problem paying up for Doncic, but it might be a bit of a struggle. Kyrie Irving ($8,700, point guard/shooting guard), would be my second option for Dallas. PJ Washington ($5,500, power forward/center eligible), who has been playing roughly 34 minutes a night since his trade to the Mavs, has had terrible rates recently but can’t be ignored due to his playing time.

Toronto Raptors (+10.5) at Phoenix Suns (230.5) | NBA DFS Advice Today

The Toronto Raptors are 10.5-point underdogs in Phoenix with a total of 230.5. It’s a tough spot for Toronto, as they’ll be missing Scottie Barnes, Bruce Brown and Jakob Poeltl. Ochai Agbaji is questionable, and his status could open up additional value. However, Kelly Olynyk, as the new starting center at $6,800 and with power forward/center eligibility, is the only player I’m looking to roster from the Raptors. They look like one of the worst teams for today’s slate, but this may change if Agbaji is ruled out, potentially freeing up value for someone like Gradey Dick or Jordan Nwora.

The Suns aren’t without their own injuries, as Devin Booker is out with a right ankle sprain, as is Josh Okogie with a lower abdominal strain. This looks like a great spot for Phoenix. The Raptors’ defense has been weak lately, making Kevin Durant ($9,700, power forward only) one of my favorite plays today and my favorite pay-up option, projected for high productivity with increased usage and assist rates. Bradley Beal ($6,900, point guard/shooting guard) also sees a bump in rates with Booker off the floor. I’m also fine rostering Grayson Allen, Jusuf Nurkic and Royce O’Neale in this favorable matchup for Phoenix.

Boston Celtics (-1) at Denver Nuggets (221)

The Boston Celtics are one-point favorites in Denver with a total of 221. It’s the best real basketball game on today’s slate, but it’s also a bit challenging from a DFS perspective. Jaylen Brown’s questionable status could open things up a bit for Boston, but this is generally a bad spot for fantasy scoring. Boston ranks 22nd in pace while the Nuggets rank 27th, making this more of a defensive battle than anything else. A starter from Boston could be a decent pick, whether that’s Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday or Kristaps Porzingis, but none are standout options.

Denver feels pretty similar to Boston, although Nikola Jokic ($11,400, center only), who has seen his minutes rise as we approach the playoffs, and Jamal Murray ($7,700, point guard only), stand out more than any option from Boston but are still considered good-but-not-great plays across the entire slate.

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Chicago Bulls (+7) at Golden State Warriors (223.5) | NBA DFS Advice Today

The Chicago Bulls are seven-point underdogs in San Francisco with a total of 223.5. Both teams are on a back-to-back, making this likely the least appealing game on today’s slate for DFS purposes.

The only notable options for Chicago are Nicola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan, Coby White and Alex Caruso, but even they are just lineup fillers at best. Golden State, on the other hand, looks even less appealing for DFS. While Steph Curry is always an option, he doesn’t compare favorably to other high-value players today.

This game will likely have the lowest ownership, making it my least-owned game.

San Antonio Spurs (+10.5) at Sacramento Kings (238)

The San Antonio Spurs are 10.5-point underdogs in Sacramento with a total of 238. The Spurs will be without Victor Wembanyama, who is out with a right ankle sprain, significantly altering the value equation for San Antonio. This creates a huge usage bump for the team and additional minutes, especially for Zach Collins, who should step into the starting center role at $4,300, making him the best play on today’s slate and a priority in any cash game.

Keldon Johnson also gets a sizable usage bump, making him the second-best option from the Spurs. Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan and Tre Jones are also worth considering in this altered San Antonio lineup.

The Kings, on the second half of a back-to-back, used a unique rotation yesterday. They started Harrison Barnes and Kevin Huerter but hardly used them — both players logged less than 20 minutes of floor time as Malik Monk and Trey Lyles came off the bench to play 30-plus.

De’Aaron Fox ($8,500, point guard only) and Domantas Sabonis ($10,600, center only) stand out in an incredible matchup against San Antonio’s bottom-10 defense and second-fastest pace. However, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter and Trey Lyles all look viable for today’s slate.

Author
Josh is Contributor for Stokastic.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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