NBA DFS Contrarian Picks: Anthony Edwards Looks Great in Houston (January 5)

We’re back with an 11-game NBA slate on Friday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, including Anthony Edwards and Cole Anthony.

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NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today

Contrarian Stud — Anthony Edwards: Minnesota Timberwolves-Houston Rockets

Anthony Edwards is the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $9,000. Coming off a summer in which he led the United States in the FIBA Basketball World Cup, Edwards has emerged as a clear top-15 player in the NBA in just his fourth season in the league. He is averaging 26.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 2.0 steals/blocks per game and has led the Timberwolves to a Western Conference-best 24-9 record. Despite his nightly dominance, however, the field is struggling to prioritize Edwards in a tough spot in Houston against the Rockets.

It’s always fun to be able to roster Edwards at low ownership. As of this writing, Edwards is projected to be only 4.30% owned on DraftKings, yet he has a 7.70% optimal percentage at a fair $9,000 price tag on DraftKings. Although he’s in a tough spot against the slow-paced Rockets, expect the best Edwards has to offer tonight as he looks to end the Timberwolves’ two-game losing streak.

Contrarian Mid-Tier — Cole Anthony: Orlando Magic-Denver Nuggets

Cole Anthony is DraftKings’ top contrarian mid-tier play at $6,500. Like Edwards, Anthony finds himself in a tough spot, matched up with the Nuggets in Denver. With Franz Wagner out, however, Anthony should see a nice uptick in both minutes and usage, and he’s getting forgotten about on DraftKings, with only 2.30% of lineups projected to roster him. He is averaging 27.2 DraftKings points per game and has been rock solid for the up-and-coming Magic. He should have a huge role tonight with both Wagner and Markelle Fultz sidelined for Orlando.

While these numbers can certainly change as we get news closer to lock, Stokastic’s tools project Anthony to be optimal 9.30% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. He is sitting behind only Duop Reath as the second-highest-graded leverage play on the board, and it is clearly worth getting over the field on him in large GPPs.

Contrarian Value — Duop Reath: Portland Trail Blazers-Dallas Mavericks

Speaking of Reath, he’s the top-graded leverage play on the slate and the clear top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $4,000. Although it’s difficult to plant the proverbial flag on any Portland center right now, Reath should presumably play a lot with Deandre Ayton, Moses Brown and Jabari Walker all not expected to suit up tonight. Exactly how many minutes he plays is up for debate, but it’s undeniable that Reath looks like a great spend-down option without many other viable value options to choose from.

Despite the field projected to get to Reath at a decent 18.20% clip, he’s not getting nearly the love he deserves, as he currently holds a slate-high 31.00% chance to be optimal on DraftKings. It’s rare to get the player with the highest optimal percentage also grading out as the best leverage play, but here we are with Reath. Despite the opportunity cost that comes with using him in the center or utility spot on DraftKings, Reath undoubtedly stands out as one of the best tournament plays on the board in both large-field and small-field contests.

Looking for more NBA DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for Stokastic’s NBA DFS Premium Package for access to player projections, ownership projections and Stokastic’s state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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