NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today
Contrarian Stud — LaMelo Ball: Boston Celtics-Charlotte Hornets
Unlike many recent slates where there have been limited contrarian options to choose from, there are a number good looking differentiators tonight, starting with Charlotte point guard LaMelo Ball. After playing limited minutes in the Hornets’ first five games of the season, Ball has been spectacular since, only dropping below 50 DraftKings points one time over the past seven games. Despite his current form and a decreased price tag, the field is out on Ball tonight in a really tough spot against the Celtics.
There’s no doubt that using players against the Celtics and their stout defense is usually a fool’s errand. However, Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool have the youngest Ball projected to be optimal 8.70% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. Compare that to his 4.60% projected ownership, and it’s clear why he stands out as an intriguing “spend up to be contrarian” piece in tournaments. This is a tough spot for Ball and the Hornets, but his upside is still sky high and he’s definitely worth getting over the field on in GPPs.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Jaden Ivey: Denver Nuggets-Detroit Pistons
Also in a tough spot at home against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, Jaden Ivey stands out as the top contrarian mid-tier piece on DraftKings at $4,900. Coming into his second season as a pro, Ivey has struggled to receive consistent minutes for a Pistons team that has a lot of guard depth. After Ivey played 28 and 29 minutes over the past two games, it seems that head coach Monty Williams has finally seen the light and Ivey is rightly going to get his chance to shine.
Given his inconsistent production this season, it’s no surprise that Ivey is projected to be only 2.80% ownership on DraftKings. He has an optimal percentage of 7.80%, however, so the field is clearly sleeping on Ivey and his upside at his cheap price point. Ivey was a microwave scorer who could get hot from anywhere on the floor coming out of Purdue. After displaying some of those same traits last year in his rookie season, Ivey has fallen into a sophomore slump of sorts on a terrible Pistons team. Expect these trends to change much sooner rather than later, with Ivey looking like one of the best tournament plays on the slate given his upside at $4,900.
Contrarian Value — Isaiah Hartenstein: New York Knicks-Minnesota Timberwolves
As DraftKings continues to do a much better job of consistently pricing up players, there seems to be a definite lack of viable value pieces priced under $5,000. There are a few more options tonight than there have been recently, but we’re still dumpster diving a bit, with Isaiah Hartenstein emerging as the top contrarian value play on the board.
Despite Hartenstein’s cheap $4,100 price tag, the field is not buying what he is selling, as only 1.30% of lineups are expected to roster him on DraftKings. He has an optimal percentage of 6.40%, and Hartenstein stands out as one of the best leverage plays at any price point. As the backup to Mitchell Robinson, he racks up fantasy points quickly, and it’s easy for him to pick up extra minutes if anything happens to Robinson. Plus, his $4,100 price tag opens doors to roster construction that otherwise would be shut.
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