NBA DFS Contrarian Picks: Look to Kristaps Porzingis and Marcus Smart as Differentiators (January 2)

The NBA is back with a six-game slate on Tuesday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening including Kristaps Porzingis and Marcus Smart.

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NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today

Contrarian Stud — Kristaps Porzingis: Boston Celtics-Oklahoma City Thunder

On a slate with only two players priced above $10,000, Kristaps Porzingis is the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $8,000. He is averaging 20.0 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 2.5 steals/blocks per game, so Porzingis has acclimated himself nicely in his first season in Boston. Despite his consistent nightly production, the field is mostly disinterested in getting to Porzingis tonight in a tough matchup with Chet Holmgren and the Thunder.

Porzingis is currently projected to be only 6.90% owned despite a 11.30% projected optimal percentage on DraftKings. Although he’s fairly priced for his median outcome, he has GPP-winning upside every time he steps on the floor, and although there isn’t a ton to like about this game from a DFS perspective, Porzingis stands out as one of the best tournaments plays on the board.

Contrarian Mid-Tier — Marcus Smart: San Antonio Spurs-Memphis Grizzlies

Marcus Smart is the top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $5,800. In four games since returning from a 17-game absence due to a foot injury, Smart has been productive while sharing Memphis’ backcourt with Ja Morant, and there’s a ton to like about him against a Spurs team that routinely gets cooked by opposing guards. He is averaging a modest 27.4 DraftKings points per game, but Smart grades as one of the top leverage plays on the entire slate.

As of this writing, Smart is projected to be optimal 14.20% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 9.80% of the field expected to roster him, Smart is the top contrarian option in the mid-tier, with higher upside given the matchup with the defenseless Spurs.

Contrarian Value — Patrick Beverley: Chicago Bulls-Philadelphia 76ers

Patrick Beverley is DraftKings’ top contrarian value at $3,700. Although he’s never exciting to roster, Beverley has a very cheap price point on a slate without a ton of viable value. Despite projecting Beverley for only 17.28 DraftKings points, Stokastic’s tools still have him optimal 11.40% of the time on DraftKings. The field is not getting to him at nearly this rate, however, as he currently projects to be only 7.60% owned. The more value comes out, the less viable Beverley will be, but as of this writing Beverley is the top low-end differentiator on the board.

Looking for more NBA DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for Stokastic’s NBA DFS Premium Package for access to player projections, ownership projections and Stokastic’s state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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