NBA DFS Contrarian Picks: Look to the Heat for Contrarian Value (November 28)

The NBA is back with an eight-game slate on Tuesday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, which include Bam Adebayo and Caleb Martin.

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NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today

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Contrarian Stud — Bam Adebayo: Milwaukee Bucks-Bam Adebayo

One of the breakout stars of the young season, Bam Adebayo is the top contrarian spend-up option on DraftKings at $9,200. Currently having his best season as a pro, Adebayo has been fantastic from a DFS perspective, putting up 22.7 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.4 blocks and 1.0 steals per game. Coming into tonight averaging 46.2 DraftKings points, Adebayo finds himself in a really good spot on Tuesday matched up with Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks.

As of this writing, Stokastic’s tools have Adebayo optimal 8.60% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 3.70% of lineups expected to roster him, however, he stands out as an easy way to get contrarian in tournaments without sacrificing any upside. With Tyler Herro still at least a week away from returning, Adebayo should continue to have the ball in his hands a ton and it’s reasonable to think that he and the rest of Miami have a little bit extra pep in their step as Damian Lillard and the Bucks stroll into town.

Contrarian Mid-Tier — Caleb Martin: Milwaukee Bucks-Miami Heat

Sticking with the Bucks-Heat game, Miami looks like the clear spot to get different in tournaments with Caleb Martin standing out in the mid-tier at $4,500. After missing 10 games due to knee tendinitis, Martin has been productive since returning on November 16th and he’s coming off his best game of the season, putting up 34.8 DraftKings points in a loss to the Nets on Saturday. Although Martin is surely much more solid than spectacular, he grades out as the second-highest leverage play on tonight’s slate, behind only Josh Green.

While these numbers can certainly change as more news comes out, Martin is expected to be optimal 10.80% of the time on DraftKings tonight. Compare that to his 3.70% ownership projection and it makes sense why he stands out as an elite differentiator in the mid-tier. While it’s highly doubtful that Martin puts up a score that’s needed to win in tournaments, his $4.500 price tag is extremely useful on a slate without a ton of viable value.

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Contrarian Value — Josh Green: Houston Rockets-Dallas Mavericks

Speaking of players who are clearly much more solid than spectacular, enter Josh Green who stands out as the top contrarian value play on the board. The highest-graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools, Green is expected to be optimal 16.10% of the time on DraftKings at his cheap $3,600 price tag. Despite his cheap price point, however, the field is not buying what Green is selling with only 5.80% of lineups expected to roster him. Much like Martin, Green producing a score that’s needed to win tonight is highly unlikely. Also like Martin, however, Green’s $3,600 price tag opens doors to roster construction that otherwise would be shut.

Looking for more NBA DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for Stokastic’s NBA DFS Premium Package for access to player projections, ownership projections and Stokastic’s state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.

Matthew Belman
Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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