NBA DFS Contrarian Picks: Suns Are Underowned Across the Board (January 8)

Monday’s NBA slate has six games and a whole lot of interesting elements to sort through given the injury questions. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, including Devin Booker and Bradley Beal.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today

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Contrarian Stud — Devin Booker: Phoenix Suns-Los Angeles Clippers

Devin Booker is the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $9,300. He is averaging 26.4 points, 7.9 assists, 5.0 rebounds and 1.3 steals/blocks per game this season, and while he has underwhelmed from a DFS perspective, Booker still has massive upside every time he steps on the court. Despite a falling price tag on DraftKings, the field wants almost nothing to do with him.

As of this writing, Booker is projected to be only 1.80% owned on DraftKings but has an optimal percentage of 5.70%. Although he is probably a bit overpriced for his median outcome, Booker was $10,500 and dropped 61 DraftKings points on the Nets less than a month ago. Unless you think Booker was a different player then than he is now, it makes sense to get over the field on him in both large-field and small-field GPPs.

Contrarian Mid-Tier — Bradley Beal: Phoenix Suns-Los Angeles Clippers

Phoenix is underowned across the board today, and Bradley Beal is DraftKings’ top contrarian mid-tier play at $7,600. After missing much of the season with various injuries, Beal looks like he’s finally healthy, playing 37 or more minutes in three straight games. He is averaging only 28.9 DraftKings points per game, as he still is getting used to playing with Booker and Kevin Durant. Even with his inconsistencies, however, Beal still has plenty of upside at $7,600 and there’s a lot to like about him in tournaments.

As a matter of fact, Stokastic’s tools actually have Beal with a slightly higher optimal percentage than Booker. He is projected to be optimal 6.30% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, but the field isn’t getting anywhere close to this rate, as only 1.50% of lineups are expected to roster him. Much like Booker, Beal is overpriced for his median outcome in a tough matchup against the Clippers. Also like Booker, however, Beal’s upside hasn’t changed, and it’ll be nice when he puts up 45 DraftKings points at $7,600 with less than 2% of the field on him.

Contrarian Value — Oshae Brissett: Boston Celtics-Indiana Pacers

Oshae Brissett is the top contrarian value on DraftKings at $3,400. On a small slate without a ton of viable value plays, we are back to dumpster diving for contrarian differentiators, and Brissett stands out at his close to minimum price on DraftKings. Despite being buried on the Celtics bench, Brissett has played decent minutes recently, as the Celtics have been shorthanded in the frontcourt. With both Jayson Tatum and Sam Hauser out tonight, Brissett should continue to be a part of Boston’s rotation, and that’s all we can really ask for at his cheap price point.

Brissett is projecting for a paltry 13.86 DraftKings points, but he is projected to be optimal 8.00% of the time. With only 2.10% of the field projected to roster him, Brissett stands out as one of the top leverage plays on the board regardless of price point. Brissett just put up 20.5 DraftKings points in 20 minutes in this same exact spot on Saturday, and while we definitely aren’t playing him because of that, it’s reasonable to think Brissett can be productive again against a Pacers team that routinely gets destroyed by opposing wings and big men.

Looking for more NBA DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for Stokastic’s NBA DFS Premium Package for access to player projections, ownership projections and Stokastic’s state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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