NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Y’all Are Sleeping on Tyrese Haliburton (February 28)

The NBA returns with a six-game slate on Wednesday that tips off at 7:30 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include Tyrese Haliburton and Santi Aldama. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Wednesday, February 28

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NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Pelicans-Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 5.80%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,500

Coming off one of his worst games of the season, in which Tyrese Haliburton put up only 23.5 fantasy points in a home loss to the Raptors, the field isn’t interested in going back to him on DraftKings. Despite that poor performance last time out, Haliburton is still averaging 48.5 DraftKings points per game, and he has slate-breaking upside every time he steps on the court.

Haliburton is projected to be in just 2.10% of lineups on DraftKings, but his optimal percentage is 5.80%, making him one of the best differentiators on the slate. He is an elite tournament core piece at $9,500.

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NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Grizzlies-Timberwolves: Santi Aldama

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 23.20%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,000

Memphis’ Santi Aldama is the highest-graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools. With the Grizzlies decimated by injuries, Aldama should continue to play big minutes, and he’s emerged as arguably the top tournament play on the slate. Although he’s not in a good spot against a potent Timberwolves defense, Aldama is the cheapest he’s been in over a month, and the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate it should be.

Aldama is projected to be in 16.40% of lineups but has a 23.20% optimal percentage. While his floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to a tough matchup, his upside is massive at $5,000, and embracing that volatility is key in GPPs.


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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Grizzlies-Timberwolves: Lamar Stevens

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 7.30%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,300

Sticking with Memphis, newly minted Grizzly Lamar Stevens was pretty unproductive from a fantasy perspective in his time with Cleveland. However, he looked decent in limited action for Boston earlier this season, and he’s carried that over in a big way to Memphis. Stevens averaged 25.32 fantasy points over the past five games, and he’s playing bigger minutes than even the Grizzlies probably expected he would. While I’m not completely buying what Stevens is currently selling, he grades out as the third-best leverage play on the slate and there’s plenty to like about him tonight.

Stokastic’s tools currently have Isaac optimal 7.30% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 3.40% of lineups projected to roster him, Stevens offers a ton of leverage.


Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Process Show with Josh Engleman on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5! Full details here.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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