NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Will Doncic Dominate?! (February 28)

Wednesday marks the middle of the work week with a six-game featured slate, tipping off at 7:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Luka Doncic, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard and Andre Drummond. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA, MMA and NASCAR) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Wednesday, February 28

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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks

Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks at Toronto Raptors

Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 63.47 | FanDuel: 60.16
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 10.6% | FanDuel: 13.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,900 | FanDuel: $8,900

Last night Luka Doncic popped off for 87.25 fantasy points on DraftKings and 84.8 on FanDuel. Tuesday was an oddity with how things shook out and the Dallas superstar was on only 9% of the DraftKings featured tournament rosters and that dropped to 5% on the blue site.

The Mavericks are favored by a bucket and this game has a lofty 237.5 projected total, so Doncic is not going to sneak by anyone tonight. By the time all the injury news is revealed, Doncic is likely to be on one-fifth of all tournament rosters.

Kyrie Irving is a secondary target and he continues to be a solid DFS option, averaging 35.9 minutes over his last six games with his “worst” outing ending up with him just missing the 40 fantasy point plateau. He has been dialed in from the field, converting 55.6% of his 20.7 field goal attempts, accompanied by a 45.7% success rate on 7.7 3-point attempts.

Toronto saw Jakob Poeltl go down with an ankle injury on Monday night, which means there is a good chance he is out of action. In turn that would likely lead to Kelly Olynyk drawing a spot start and having a clear path to 30 minutes as he will match up better defensively against rookie Dereck Lively II and veteran Daniel Gafford in the post. The NBA vagabond has power forward eligibility on FanDuel ($5,500) and if starting he will also be a desirable target on DraftKings ($5,000), even though he is center-only.

Scottie Barnes has not been overly effective from the field, but during the last seven games, the first-time All-Star is still averaging 18.9 points, 10.0 rebounds, 8.6 assists and 3.0 combined blocks and steals. In this timeframe he has tallied 44 or more fantasy points six times, with two games in the 50s and a monster 60-plus performance in his last game against the Pacers. The addition of Gafford and Lively being healthy has improved the Dallas defense, but the Mavericks are still allowing 116.7 points per 100 possessions over the last 15 games.

Immanuel Quickley looks good across the DFS sites at his current salary, while RJ Barrett and Bruce Brown Jr. stand out on DraftKings.

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Andre Drummond: Chicago Bulls vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 35.2 | FanDuel: 35.69
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 47.3% | FanDuel: 30.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,200 | FanDuel: $5,900

In a fun twist, Andre Drummond is popping up as a discount dandy today and it is worthy of an explanation.

No, it is not because Alex Caruso is doubtful, but that doesn’t hurt either. It is more about the Cavaliers rolling out a two-big lineup with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, which is a combination that has seen Chicago willing to match with Drummond and Vucevic at the same time.

Two weeks ago, we saw Drummond actually start alongside of Vucevic, playing 21 minutes with him and seven without. Drummond ended up with a 10 point, 15 rebound double-double, with one block and one steal. Per NBAWOWY, the four-time rebounding champion is averaging 1.3 fantasy points per minute this season, 1.2 with Vucevic and 1.4 without.

There are a mix of other players who hold tournament appeal from both teams. Ayo Dosunmu and Coby White would move from neutral options to secondary targets across the DFS sites if Caruso is out. Vucevic looks better on DraftKings, where he also holds power forward eligibility. Jarrett Allen gets the edge on FanDuel with power forward eligibility. Now that Mobley and Darius Garland are back to full minutes, Donovan Mitchell does not have to do the heavy lifting, so this trio is downgraded to tournament differentiation plays.

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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Tonight will be the fourth “Battle for Los Angeles” with the Lakers holding a 2-1 series lead. Paul George is going to miss a second-consecutive game with knee soreness. Norman Powell got the start on Sunday, playing 37 minutes and while he does not do much other than score, his dual shooting guard and small forward eligibility will have him as one of the most popular plays in all formats.

James Harden and Kawhi Leonard will see a significant increase in opportunities and volume with George out of the picture. Leonard has performed well against the Lakers this season, averaging 38.1 points minutes, 20.3 field goal attempts, 26.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 3.3 combined blocks and steals. It is worth noting that these performances all were with George active and two were while Harden was on the court. When George is off the floor, Harden moves from 1.1 fantasy points per minute to nearly 1.3 and while Leonard maintains a 1.3ish rate, he does get more volume.

LeBron James and Anthony Davis each have their standard questionable injury designation, but each is expected to play. James looks good on both of the main sites, while Davis is better on FanDuel, because he can be utilized as a power forward.

Cam Reddish is expected to be available tonight, which along with the addition of Spencer Dinwiddie makes things pretty crowded for the rest of the Lakers rotation. On the late-slate, Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura are adequate roster filler for tournaments.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

Though Anthony Davis is a strong DFS option, he is still someone to target against in the sports wagering market with the under on his 13.5 rebounds prop, which is currently available at odds of -129 on Caesars and -130 on BetMGM.

This is a good example that demonstrates the power of letting OddsShopper do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets.

The next-best odds at the most popular books are in the -140 to -150 range, which is close to a 3% tax for not doing any legwork.

Per the true odds of -141 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a decent 3.8% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.

NBA Bet Pro currently has Davis projected for 36.1 minutes and 12.85 rebounds. That median projection is just below the 13.5 target, but keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection.

In the three prior matchups with the Clippers, Davis has averaged 10.7 rebounds. However, in his last five games he has 13 or more in each, though going back 16 games he has cleared the 13.5 rebound milestone seven (43.8%) times.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows starting at 5:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by PrizePicks – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match AND – ONE FREE MONTH of OddsShopper Premium! Full details here.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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