NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays: Domantas Sabonis Gets Odd Jazz Matchup (March 20)

Once again, tonight’s slate is packed with injury question marks, so it is important to stay on top of the news. Be sure to check out the Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows to gain insight into how breaking news can impact the slate. Additionally, Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections and Boom/Bust Tool are valuable tools that can aid you in making NBA DFS picks and building strong lineups that have the potential to outperform your competition.

NBA DFS Projections & Optimizer Picks Today

High-End Tier

Joel Embiid ($11,600) has the highest projection on the slate despite a tough matchup with a Bulls team ranked fifth in defensive rating. Embiid is projected for 17% ownership, a 28% chance of booming and 17% chance of being optimal, per the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool.

Domantas Sabonis ($10,400) has a nice matchup with a Jazz team ranked 25th in defensive rating, though it’s worth noting that this is not going to be the typical Jazz lineup. Sabonis is projected for 15% ownership, an 18% chance of booming and 10% chance of being optimal.


Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,000) has played more than 30 minutes in each of the past three games for the Hornets and has a great matchup with the Pacers. Smith is projected for 31% ownership, a 32% chance of booming and 29% chance of being optimal.

Kris Dunn ($4,800) should see a bump in minutes and usage off the bench, with Jordan Clarkson, Lauri Markkanen, and Collin Sexton all out against a Kings team ranked 24th in defensive rating and 10th in pace. Dunn is projected for 31% ownership, a 29% chance of booming and 27% chance of being optimal.

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Talen Horton-Tucker ($6,800) will continue to start and see significant usage. Horton-Tucker is projected for 25% ownership, a 34% chance of booming and 35% chance of being optimal.

PJ Washington ($5,800) is one of the many Hornets with a great value score. Washington is projected for 27% ownership, a 21% chance of booming and 21% chance of being optimal.

Dillon Brooks ($5,000) currently has the second-best leverage score on the slate against a Mavericks team ranked 23rd in defensive rating. Brooks is projected for 10% ownership, a 15% chance of booming and 17% chance of being optimal.

Value Tier

Simone Fontecchio ($$3,600) currently has the best value score on the entire slate. Fontecchio is projected for 35% ownership, a 19% chance of booming and 24% chance of being optimal. Rudy Gay ($3,000), Ochai Agbaji ($3,800), and Damian Jones ($3,000) join Fontecchio as some of the top point-per-dollar plays on the slate.

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Neil Orfield
Neil Orfield has been playing DFS regularly since 2013, but his success really started taking off in 2019 when he had a six figure payday with a hand built NFL lineup. The next day, he signed up for a Stokastic+ subscription with FantasyCruncher. Since then he has won an NFL milly and added six figure wins in XFL, MLB, and NBA. He has recently excelled at NFL Showdown, with many five- and six-figure wins since 2021.

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