NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays: Damian Lillard Flying Way Under the Radar (March 10)

The value on tonight’s slate is ugly, and we aren’t anticipating any great value opening up. As always, though, it is important to stay on top of the news, so be sure to check out the Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows to gain insight into how breaking news can impact the slate. Additionally, Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections and Boom/Bust Tool are valuable tools that can aid in building strong DFS lineups that have potential to outperform the competition.

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NBA DFS Projections & Optimizer Plays Today

High-End Tier

Nikola Jokic ($11,700) is the highest-projected player on the slate tonight against a Spurs team that plays at the seventh-fastest pace in the league and has the worst defensive rating. Jokic is projected for 14% ownership, a 29% chance of booming and 12% chance of being optimal, according to the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool.

Damian Lillard ($10,900) has a strong leverage score against the 76ers. He is projected for just 5% ownership, a 15% chance of booming and 7% chance of being optimal.

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Fred VanVleet ($8,300) is a solid point-per-dollar play against a Lakers team that plays at the second-fastest pace in the league. VanVleet is projected for 24% ownership, a 29% chance of booming and 23% chance of being optimal.

Cameron Johnson ($6,000) should be back in the starting lineup tonight against a Timberwolves team ranked in the top 10 in pace of play and bottom 10 in defensive rating. Johnson is projected for 23% ownership, a 14% chance of booming and 20% chance of being optimal.

Bam Adebayo ($8,000) has a nice leverage score despite a tough matchup with the Cavaliers. Adebayo is projected for 5% ownership, a 13% chance of booming and 10% chance of being optimal.

Value Tier

Day’Ron Sharpe ($3,000) is currently the best point-per-dollar play on the slate and also has the second-best leverage score on the slate despite being relegated to the bench with Nic Claxton returning to the starting lineup. Sharpe is projected for 16% ownership, an 11% chance of booming and 20% chance of being optimal.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3,500) has been consistently seeing minutes in the low 20s recently and has a solid value score. Alexander-Walker is projected for 39% ownership, a 7% chance of booming and 31% chance of being optimal.

Caris LeVert ($4,200) is a fine play with everyone in but will become a priority if Darius Garland, who is currently questionable, is ultimately ruled out.

Neil Orfield
Neil Orfield has been playing DFS regularly since 2013, but his success really started taking off in 2019 when he had a six figure payday with a hand built NFL lineup. The next day, he signed up for a Stokastic+ subscription with FantasyCruncher. Since then he has won an NFL milly and added six figure wins in XFL, MLB, and NBA. He has recently excelled at NFL Showdown, with many five- and six-figure wins since 2021.

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